11/21-22/24 Little Something.. But first flakes for quite a few.. MAYBE

[midatlanticweather]

I mean.. Why not start the year off with a little thing.. I can't post any graphics due to something up with my account, but I think some could dust Friday morning ..Higher elevations can boast on some high totals and wind. Ringing in the new start to winter weather possibilities. 

[nj2va]

Latest LWX discussion:

Low clouds should hold strong through much of the day tomorrow,
but it will remain mild, with high temperatures in the 60s for
most.

Later tomorrow through the remainder of the week, attention will
turn to a potent system approaching from the north and west. A
broad, deepening upper low will dive southeastward from the
Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes during the day tomorrow.
A prominent shortwave on the leading edge of the much broader
upper low will move overhead tomorrow evening, driving a strong
cold front through the area during the late afternoon and
evening hours. Showers should develop to the west of the Blue
Ridge during the afternoon, and may strengthen into a squall
line to the east of the Blue Ridge tomorrow evening. Any
convection would be rather low topped in nature, but a few
rumbles of thunder could be possible tomorrow evening. The wind
field ahead of the line isn`t strong at all, so any gusts
produced by the line would likely be sub-severe. However, there
is a strong surge of wind within cold advection behind the
front. Winds may briefly approach Wind Advisory criteria for a
few hours behind the front, especially along the ridgetops. Some
showers may linger for a few hours behind the front, but should
rapidly come to an end as conditions dry out during the second
half of the night.

There will be a lull in the precipitation Thursday morning as
the first shortwave and its associated synoptic scale forcing
for ascent lifts off to our northeast. Daytime heating will
allow limited instability to develop within the boundary layer.
As a result, snow showers will start to develop in the mountains
within upslope flow during the afternoon hours and continue on
and off through the night. The snow showers could be quite
squally in nature during the afternoon and early evening hours,
with instability extending up into the dendritic growth zone.
Several inches of snow may be possible with this first round of
snow. Winter Storm Watches go into effect along the Allegheny
Front starting at 1 PM Thursday and continue through Saturday
afternoon. To the east of the mountains, much of the day will
remain dry, but a few mixed rain/snow/graupel showers may be
possible during the afternoon. Temperatures will hold in the
30s in the mountains, with high temperatures in the 40s to near
50 further east.

Latest LWX forecast through 7a Saturday (likely more snow to come for the mountains). 

[JenkinsJinkies]

PSU is in Garrett County right? If so then if he can get at least an inch out of this then per his correlations write up from last year that would give a good chance for a snowy season region wide.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

PSU is in Garrett County right? If so then if he can get at least an inch out of this then per his correlations write up from last year that would give a good chance for a snowy season region wide.

He lives in northeastern Carroll County.  "Can see PA from his house"

[IronTy]

Oh man I'm so pumped.  It's only Tuesday!  I'm leaving from Calvert at about 330pm Friday and am not looking forward to the beltway traffic.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

He lives in northeastern Carroll County.  "Can see PA from his house"

Alright then. Based on the map 1” is still possible there but it would be pretty much localized to there.

[MN Transplant]

HRRR is aggressive with the wind gusts as the line of showers moves through Wednesday evening.  Into the 50s in some places.

[winter_warlock]

Where I live in north central md ( baltimore county)  I probably won't see any snow but... it will certainly feel like winter.. will get me in the mood for what I hope is an active winter the next 3 to 4 months ! 

[high risk]

HRRR has the center of the upper low arriving Thursday afternoon with scattered to numerous heavy showers.   This sounding sure suggests that small hail or graupel would be possible in any of the stronger cores.

[NorthArlington101]

Ah, to be looking at the 84hr NAM. I missed you, old friend.

Couple inches along the MD/PA border for N Central MD. Mountains crushed.

[Snowchaser]

Anyone heading out to Snowshoe for this one? 

[MillvilleWx]

I’m traveling back home from KY on Saturday. I’ll take some pictures from the landscape out there on my way back. Cutting up 79 to 68 on trek back, so I’ll see it all. Should be a scenic view on that trip back! 

[NorthArlington101]

00z GFS grants us Snow TV on Friday morning.

It also says you might want to consider a slightly further jog to Scranton if you are chasing this one. Keeps moving the 30” jackpot zone in the NE further southwest run after run. Doesn’t seem to be affecting the mountain snow much.

[nj2va]

12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

00z GFS grants us Snow TV on Friday morning.

It also says you might want to consider a slightly further jog to Scranton if you are chasing this one. Keeps moving the 30” jackpot zone in the NE further southwest run after run. Doesn’t seem to be affecting the mountain snow much.

Looks like the Canadian twins suggest some snow TV with possible light accumulations in northern MD. 

[NorthArlington101]

Looks like the Canadian twins suggest some snow TV with possible light accumulations in northern MD. 

It’s early season hope but it is cold enough Friday morning. If we can keep inching this thing south, I wonder if folks closer to the metro could find a dusting.

I forget every year that 3-4 days is a long time… we’ve lost plenty in that window for sure.

[NorthArlington101]

It’s early season hope but it is cold enough Friday morning. If we can keep inching this thing south, I wonder if folks closer to the metro could find a dusting.

I forget every year that 3-4 days is a long time… we’ve lost plenty in that window for sure.

This isn’t super compelling - just having fun. But modest ticks. I’d be interested in Psuhoffman land

[mappy]

11 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

I mean.. Why not start the year off with a little thing.. I can't post any graphics due to something up with my account, but I think some could dust Friday morning ..Higher elevations can boast on some high totals and wind. Ringing in the new start to winter weather possibilities. 

You probably need to delete some of your attachments to make space to post more. 

[mappy]

I’ll be thrilled just to see snow fall even if it doesn’t accumulate. 

[katabatic]

Pulled the trigger and got a place up at Snowshoe for tonight through Saturday. Hopefully lives up to its name 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, katabatic said:

Pulled the trigger and got a place up at Snowshoe for tonight through Saturday. Hopefully lives up to its name 

Did you rent through a property management group or a vrbo/bnb? 

[nj2va]

Latest LWX and Pitt forecasts - both through 7a Saturday, some snow still to come after this.  I don’t mind the orange 12”+ blob over our place. 

[nj2va]

10 minutes ago, katabatic said:

Pulled the trigger and got a place up at Snowshoe for tonight through Saturday. Hopefully lives up to its name 

Have fun and happy chasing, Snowshoe will do well in this setup - classic for them for maximize.  There was that guy who used to post here that had a place out there and lived in Northern VA - can’t remember his username but wonder if he’ll be out there for it too.

[dailylurker]

Mount Storm, where I'm headed for the chase is in the 12-18" zone. Oh boy!! I bet the ridge I'll be on gets 18"+. It's at about 3k feet. The Shoe is 4800 so I'm sure it will be powder at that elevation. I'm thinking about extending my stay and leaving Friday to head out there.

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

I’ll be thrilled just to see snow fall even if it doesn’t accumulate. 

6z Euro says that is certainly on the table Friday morning with even some mixing down into the cities.  A nice way to kick off the Thanksgiving holiday next week.

 

 

[nj2va]

6 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Mount Storm, where I'm headed for the chase is in the 12-18" zone. Oh boy!! I bet the ridge I'll be on gets 18"+. It's at about 3k feet. The Shoe is 4800 so I'm sure it will be powder at that elevation. I'm thinking about extending my stay and leaving Friday to head out there.

Glad you’re chasing there - I drive through there when taking the I-66/81 route to Deep Creek…great spot to be at 3,000 feet.  

Something that’s been ‘trending’ on the models that could keep totals on the lower end of the guidance range are surface temps.  Euro and NAM actually flip above freezing overnight Friday into Saturday, from Garrett down to Canaan and Snowshoe.  GFS is the ‘warmest’ of the models and raises temps the quickest.

[katabatic]

34 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Have fun and happy chasing, Snowshoe will do well in this setup - classic for them for maximize.  There was that guy who used to post here that had a place out there and lived in Northern VA - can’t remember his username but wonder if he’ll be out there for it too.

Thank you! It's honestly not the best time to do this (have a dentist appt tomorrow morning, but teeth are replaceable and this storm will only happen once). @DDweatherman I go through Airbnb which has never disappointed me (I do this nonsense a lot). I'd rather have gone to somewhere around Canaan since it's much closer to home, but they wanted anywhere from $750-$1,100 for a 3 night stay which is ridiculous. Even with their bs fees, I'm only paying $370 for a top-of-mountain condo at Snowshoe which is much more reasonable. 

[katabatic]

17 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Glad you’re chasing there - I drive through there when taking the I-66/81 route to Deep Creek…great spot to be at 3,000 feet.  

Something that’s been ‘trending’ on the models that could keep totals on the lower end of the guidance range are surface temps.  Euro and NAM actually flip above freezing overnight Friday into Saturday, from Garrett down to Canaan and Snowshoe.  GFS is the ‘warmest’ of the models and raises temps the quickest.

I noticed that too but in the AFD, LWX mentions a secondary surge of cold air at the same time P&C brings temps up warm enough to rain, coinciding with what you mention w/the models...primary reason why I'm going to Snowshoe with the hope it doesn't hit freezing and turn to rain.

[mappy]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

6z Euro says that is certainly on the table Friday morning with even some mixing down into the cities.  A nice way to kick off the Thanksgiving holiday next week.

 

 

Temps are warmer then I’d like them to be for anything to stick but it will be nice to have a taste of winter 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z 3K NAM, wintry Friday afternoon on tap....

[mappy]

NAM def colder than euro. Later start on snow in the area too