Daniel Boone Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: In the longer range, this is kind of what I am monitoring. I "think" that if the first half of January goes cold, we might be looking at some colder analogs going forward from their. 95-96"(light version) is an analog which is working well of late. I am NOT calling for that kind of winter. But I wouldn't rule out something like this...a couple more cold shots, warm-up around Christmas, step down cold through the third week of Jan, thaw, early Feb cold, warm last half of Feb, and then March cools back down. January looks a lot like this on the Euro Weeklies w/ some ridging bellying underneath from the southwest. My guess is that we see a pretty variable pattern which normally works well here during January. Yeah, they look to want to make a - EPO pretty much a Staple. That correlates with the Nina PAC Ridge being further East than typical Nina Climo. Makes sense given the SST Structure out there now imo. + TNH would be pretty prevalent with possible over the pole ridging at times. CPF would be likely at higher than average intervals. The +QBO is probably why no real blocking is being advertised. Strange in that you generally want a -AO for a cold Winter but, with the right setup, a positive AO in Tandem with a -EPO and tall PNA Ridge can deliver strong CPF. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This may well be cold chasing rain. However, if the low backs a little due that leeside low which is showing up on short range modeling, I could see higher elevations on the Plateau, SE KY, SW VA, and areas above 2000' in E TN doing OK. Morristown seems to have a knack for scoring lately. My inlaws live there, and they often do as well as we do in NE TN! That’s cool they live here in Motown! The city in general sits at around 1,350ft. However there are many areas above 1500’. Fun fact about Hamblen Co., the highest point is actually in the middle of town on Crockett’s Ridge. It sits just under 2,000ft at 1,952ft. At that elevation, they definitely get more snow during events, and I’ve seen it where only the last 150-200ft had snow and the rest had nothing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 The EPO doesn't always work for us. It can be too far West and dump the cold there while we get cutters. But when it's right, we don't have to worry about rain, just suppression and pipe busting cold behind storms. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 18z artificial intelligence happy hour. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 58 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z artificial intelligence happy hour. Now that's what we need ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z artificial intelligence happy hour. Talk about a cold game in Columbus! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 The GFS and Canadian/RGEM are singing a wintery tune for this week at 00z. It would be great if they're correct. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 32 minutes ago, John1122 said: The GFS and Canadian/RGEM are singing a wintery tune for this week at 00z. It would be great if they're correct. Hopefully so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 RGEM is getting even more moisture back across the Apps for tomorrow AM now, but seems to see the cold air struggling to make it over the plateau. NAM was trending toward more moisture, but is keeping the deep stuff east of Morristown at 6z I think RGEM and Euro AIFS win this one wrt moisture. Both were going to town on this idea for a while. Biggest problem I see now is that we're pretty deep in mild, moist air right now so I think the wait and see for cold air game is, as usual, a real threat. Not pretty for a "waiting on the cold air" situation. Fortunately timing is about as good as it can get, early AM Wed, so the sme model above, shows the below: The Bastardi algorithm is much more optimistic for MBY than the Levi Cohen algorithm: Luckily all I have to do is wake up at my usual time and look out my window to see which turned out right. I think Cumberland county, John, anyone up near Wise or Harlan, KY have the best shot as of now. 100% chance John and Cumberland Co change over to snow at least 45 minutes before me lol. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 The 12z non-AI Euro with a really nice pass around the 21st. I continue to like that timeframe. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z non-AI Euro with a really nice pass around the 21st. I continue to like that timeframe. Yeah now that a global has jumped on board I'm extremely interested in that timeframe. I have found it best to pay attention when the Euro is the first global to sound the alarm. nice signal for the East Coast. Tomorrow has turned more novelty than anything at this point. Daytime killing us on temps. Especially the valley. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 The Euro Weeklies ext continue to advertise a pretty decent pattern progression w/ some embedded zonal flow for sure. That said, it wouldn't be a bad winter if that verified. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 Looks like MRX is rolling with the NAM as a heavy favorite in the current modeling. The HRRR has been increasing potential totals steadily, with the RGEM being steadfast in a decent event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 If I could transport myself anywhere in our area tomorrow AM it would be High Knob, VA. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 2 hours ago, John1122 said: Looks like MRX is rolling with the NAM as a heavy favorite in the current modeling. The HRRR has been increasing potential totals steadily, with the RGEM being steadfast in a decent event. Sure looks it but, hard to say for sure as last I spoke with them regarding what they use they said the NBM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 If the RGEM wins this time it'll once again be the go to one for our area . None are flawless of course but , some are better percentage wise for certain area's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 10 Share Posted December 10 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: If I could transport myself anywhere in our area tomorrow AM it would be High Knob, VA. I remember back in the early '90's the Seasonal Average there was 110 inches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Latest nam is beautiful for tmrw morning. Some nice NW powder pads totals for mountains tomorrow night. I'm all in on it haha. Hrrr much less aggressive. NAM has been better this year so far. of course need to cut this down by half at least for ground temps etc. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 The GFS is making a late surge and bringing heavy snow back to the plateau and points east. It puts down 3 inches in Knoxville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 The RAP is getting more on board as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 GFS with a late surge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Pouring snow on the plateau, have about a half inch currently. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 36 and rain leaving Farragut this am. Feels close to snow!. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 11 minutes ago, Knoxtron said: Pouring snow on the plateau, have about a half inch currently. I was wondering how you were doing. I actually am pretty close to your total somehow. Absolutely exceeding my expectations. As we get some daylight it is beautiful here. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Just now, Save the itchy algae! said: 36 and rain leaving Farragut this am. Feels close to snow! . That was about the temp I started to turn over. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 Driving off the mountain. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 American LR extended modeling is much warmer than Euro/Canadian products of similar time ranges. I wonder if something has been tweaked or updated in with that model. It is missing cold fronts that it didn't use to.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 11 Share Posted December 11 RGEM and Euro AIFS for the win in my book with this one. Euro AIFS, last 26 runs, starting 186 hours out: RGEM's runs, starting 80ish hours out: Compare to the GFS 180 hours out: Euro from 140 hours out (couldn't get a gif further than that) and NAM from 84 hours: Looks to me like there was a progressive bias with this particular system. RGEM I think does better with big picture stuff, NAM and HRRR are better for localized precip. type issues and convective processes. 0z Euro AIFS is still trying to honk on the system Carvers noted: It is still bouncing around a bit though, but hey its 10 days out. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now