Daniel Boone Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Yes sir! Had a feeling Models would bring that back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 12z gfs nice bump up in QPF on the snowy side. Continues a trend of more consolidated sourthern lobe. this is now not far from shades of the Christmas 2020 event. Pretty sure that one really strengthened on models in the short term like this is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Need to bring this puppy back west a smidge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 minute ago, BNAwx said: Need to bring this puppy back west a smidge. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 9 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: This is the kind of thing that has been common over the last 8 years (things backing up NW as forecasting time decreases probably largely related to the MC warm pool). I hope this isn’t a sign of things to come the rest of this winter for the E coast although I fear this is a realistic possibility. But it may be good for most of you guys. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 38 minutes ago, GaWx said: This is the kind of thing that has been common over the last 8 years (things backing up NW as forecasting time decreases probably largely related to the MC warm pool). I hope this isn’t a sign of things to come the rest of this winter for the E coast although I fear this is a realistic possibility. But it may be good for most of you guys. Agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 56 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: 12z gfs nice bump up in QPF on the snowy side. Continues a trend of more consolidated sourthern lobe. this is now not far from shades of the Christmas 2020 event. Pretty sure that one really strengthened on models in the short term like this is. Yeah, very similar to that Event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 2 hours ago, BNAwx said: Need to bring this puppy back west a smidge. 100%. Worst case, would love to be able to chase up to Monterey. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Models are sniffing out a really cold shot around Dec 22. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 That cold shot is very apparent on both the CMC and EPS at range....I don't know what is going on with the GEFS. It has been unrealistically warm for several weeks at range. It has been whiffing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 I think we need to start watching for an anafront right before Christmas Eve. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 The 18z RGEM is pretty much perfect...and we like that model at this range. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Morning RGEM holds steady. NAM continues to trend more negative and sharper with the trough. Looks like most of this is driven by jet dynamics? I mean yeah there is def. a opportunity for some upslope after as cold air slides in, but I think what we are rooting for is a sharper, more negative trough to help draw moisture west to be lifted in the right entrance region of a strengthening jet. NAM trend for the 500 mb trough: NAM jet trend: RGEM able to get more moisture backing: \ NAM is trying, but so far not as much makes it west: But.... the NAM looks much better this AM (above) than 18z (below): 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 This kind of reminds me of the Christmas Eve 2021 strom: I think the above is probably the highest end this Wednesday is capable of though. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 That was a really depressing storm for here. Missed out on flakes by about 5 miles. Kinda like the big storm last year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Models are picking up on the MJO now projected to go through the warm Phases through the last half of the Month. Moreover, the Nina is strengthening so, I suspect that will show more in the Models, particularly the LR . The, at least temporary, cooling in the WPAC should help maybe alter the Nina augmented Ridge or align it further East , if the Nina gets strong enough to enhance that Ridge. Some are saying we are in a Classic Nina Pattern now. I don't completely agree with that. Sure, there's some aspects but, other's not. Roundy over on X for example, argued the point it is. If you look at a typical Nina Pattern for early Winter this is mighty close . So, could be the Course we're taking. Hopefully, the Nina won't strengthen alot as we more than likely won't get blocking ala 10-11 or 95-96 to alter its effects. Still hope for the + TNH Pattern to manifest more than usual. So, a little less enthusiastic but, not unoptimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 This goes along with the optimistic part. https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1866138638439817444?t=-lY6aNmOwoknGqFMqGVMiw&s=19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 Honestly, IMO we are just now getting into the warmer MJO phases and figured we would have an uphill battle from here until the first week of Jan. More optimistic for me are the patterns we've had the past couple of weeks. How long has it been since we had not one, but TWO clippers slide over the Mountain Empire? Frequently in the past few years when we get a cold shot it's like a week or even 3-4 days. This one has at least lasted a couple of weeks. Just giving it the the eyeball test, MJO seems near phase 5 to me. I guess we'll see what happens. If we get to like Jan 1 and it looks like it will just reload into 4/5/6, probably looking at atypical (aka recent) La Nina. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 What is interesting is the Euro AIFS sticking its landings from waaaay out there. It has another cold shot, maybe an ana-front, and major winter storm for the SE just after Dec 20. The GFS seems to really be having a tough time after a decent November. It is not able to see what look to be probably cold shots. Might it be right? Sure. But sometimes it seems like its LR maps are similar to listening to the selection committee tell me why our resume' isn't as good at PSU's or Texas'. AI is like building in strength of schedule. Definitely watching for a possible nasty cold shot from Jan 7-21. I have tried not to say to much about it as that is a long way out there, but it fits this kind of odd modeling that we have been seeing for January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: What is interesting is the Euro AIFS sticking its landings from waaaay out there. It has another cold shot, maybe an ana-front, and major winter storm for the SE just after Dec 20. The GFS seems to really be having a tough time after a decent November. It is not able to see what look to be probably cold shots. Might it be right? Sure. But sometimes it seems like its LR maps are similar to listening to the selection committee tell me why our resume' isn't as good at PSU's or Texas'. AI is like building in strength of schedule. Definitely watching for a possible nasty cold shot from Jan 7-21. I have tried not to say to much about it as that is a long way out there, but it fits this kind of odd modeling that we have been seeing for January. Whether we do or not I would suggest taking the time like I am to put some extra things around landscaping. Been working all day giving things a fresh covering of pine needles. Hopefully will be enough if we get real cold. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 10 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: This kind of reminds me of the Christmas Eve 2021 strom: I think the above is probably the highest end this Wednesday is capable of though. The 18z RGEM was a decently more aggressive for Weds. See that? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 MRX afternoon disco... Wednesday: A significant influx of dry air will introduce a much colder airmass early Wednesday, causing temperatures to decline throughout the day. The highest temperature on Wednesday is likely to occur just after midnight. The transition to a northerly flow will enhance upslope snowfall across higher elevations. Some valley locations, particularly from far northeastern Tennessee northward into southwestern Virginia, may experience light snow accumulation. Currently, favored higher elevation areas are expected to receive at around 1 inch of snow, with much lower totals in the lower elevations of the valley. As cold temperatures prevail, a deepening surface low to our northeast combined with rapidly advancing high pressure will result in increased wind gusts across higher terrain, potentially reaching near Wind Advisory levels, especially in the Southern Appalachians. Wind chills are forecasted to range from the teens to single digits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z RGEM was a decently more aggressive for Weds. See that? I always like the RGEM, though it does have its flaws. It seems to do really well in winter for the most part. Hopefully it’s right here! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 6 minutes ago, Jed33 said: I always like the RGEM, though it does have its flaws. It seems to do really well in winter for the most part. Hopefully it’s right here! This may well be cold chasing rain. However, if the low backs a little due that leeside low which is showing up on short range modeling, I could see higher elevations on the Plateau, SE KY, SW VA, and areas above 2000' in E TN doing OK. Morristown seems to have a knack for scoring lately. My inlaws live there, and they often do as well as we do in NE TN! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 In the longer range, this is kind of what I am monitoring. I "think" that if the first half of January goes cold, we might be looking at some colder analogs going forward from their. 95-96"(light version) is an analog which is working well of late. I am NOT calling for that kind of winter. But I wouldn't rule out something like this...a couple more cold shots, warm-up around Christmas, step down cold through the third week of Jan, thaw, early Feb cold, warm last half of Feb, and then March cools back down. January looks a lot like this on the Euro Weeklies w/ some ridging bellying underneath from the southwest. My guess is that we see a pretty variable pattern which normally works well here during January. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 That EPO ridge just wants to hit and hold. It is a bit surprising to see modeling that adamant, but I am sure there is some decent science behind it. It really looks like the base pattern on LR modeling. I know that is John's favorite pattern and for good reason. I hope it holds. I like the NAO, but this is a year it could easily hook into a SER...so, we want it quiet this year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 1 hour ago, matt9697 said: Whether we do or not I would suggest taking the time like I am to put some extra things around landscaping. Been working all day giving things a fresh covering of pine needles. Hopefully will be enough if we get real cold. If you really want to help us out, start planting some expensive stuff that is really sensitive to long bouts of cold and snow! Cause you know what is coming next if you do that. Either that or we can get @Stovepipeto schedule a camper trip to the mountains during January. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Honestly, IMO we are just now getting into the warmer MJO phases and figured we would have an uphill battle from here until the first week of Jan. More optimistic for me are the patterns we've had the past couple of weeks. How long has it been since we had not one, but TWO clippers slide over the Mountain Empire? Frequently in the past few years when we get a cold shot it's like a week or even 3-4 days. This one has at least lasted a couple of weeks. Just giving it the the eyeball test, MJO seems near phase 5 to me. I guess we'll see what happens. If we get to like Jan 1 and it looks like it will just reload into 4/5/6, probably looking at atypical (aka recent) La Nina. JB was noting that the MJO is forecast to get really quiet in January - I "think" I read the map correctly. Sometimes he has inverted color schemes, and it is the opposite of what I think it is showing. If the MJO signal is weak, that might not be a bad thing considering the Maritime tendency to fire when we don't want it to.... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9 Share Posted December 9 On a side note, I miss the DGEX. The Euro AIFS has kind of taken its place for me, but the clown maps for that thing were legendary. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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