Winter 2024/2025 December Thread

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Yes the MJO would favor another cold shot. CFS dives it down the Plains and it fails to get east. Honestly that's pretty believable. 

As for next week, y'all knew I was going to rattle the severe sabre.. Can we get some severe weather?

Thunder in the mountains....

[Holston_River_Rambler]

19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thunder in the mountains....

I noticed some strikes last week in the middle of the night on the radar app near Clinton and Knoxville. Hopefully that portends well for this evening. Sadly one on the most important indices is not looking good. The ELK index is heretofore absent. 

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies continue to show a trough that really does not want to tuck into the West for more than a week - still not sure why that is, but we will take it.  I think we get a ridge from say Dec16-22.  It could last through the 27-28th.  Then, I think we go into a back and forth pattern very similar to some of the colder La Ninas.  I don't think it is a full blown cold pattern, but I would be surprised if it was a full blown warm pattern.  It sort of just looks like a normal winter pattern.

[Carvers Gap]

This is a sample of what I am looking at.  The Euro Weeklies today showed a the trough returning for the last part of December and into January.  My guess is that it is a little quick with bringing the trough back after the mid Dec warm-up.  However, after a back-and-forth pattern to end December and begin Jan, it drops the hammer.  The first two images are the control for the first two weeks of January, and this fits with the colder Nina analogs.  The last image is the CFSv2 for January.  They look a lot alike.  The Euro Weeklies ensemble is very similar to the control, but more smoothed. if I hadn't centered the time increments for Jan1-8 and 9-16, you would also seem some twenty below normal temps.  We are approaching the coldest time of the year in January, so anything below normal works.

 

[Matthew70]

Very surprising dusting here.  Gets me in the Christmas mood. 

[John1122]

The GFS is trying for the d9 storm, Plateau and west to the mid-state. Canadian is a far western ice storm with a low running west of the apps. 12+ hours of upper 20s to lower 30s in West Tennessee while Eastern areas are in the 50s. The euro is much warmer than either and it's all rain. So every model has the storm, the path is the big question. 

[Carvers Gap]

Two good passes by the last two (0z and 6z) GFS runs.  The CMC isn't far behind.   More than likely that is a mid-state cutter, but the GFS sniffs these out sometimes first.

[Carvers Gap]

The 6z CFSv2 is a thing of beauty for January.  That is an incredibly cold look.  Now, it is guilty at times of misreading the MJO.  So, proceed with caution.

[Carvers Gap]

This would be on the extreme end of modeling...but it also mimics the extreme La Nina analogs.  Seems like the very end of December through mid-Jan might be the window for the next cold shot.  That isn't a look.  If forced, I would say Jan 1-8.  Then, another ridge rolls through, and then???.  The pattern is much more transient than I had envisioned, but that might spare us from a torch for January.  Indeed, the map below is the opposite of such.  That is a 30 day map which begins with a massive warm-up.  So, just imagine what it took to erase that warmup.

[Carvers Gap]

I know JB gets a hard time sometimes, but they have created a great maps page, and I great appreciate them for letting us share their maps.  That is what is underneath the map above.   And this is exactly why January is a very tough forecast.  It is a true wildcard - really extreme, polar opposite analogs.  In this case, just polar.

[*Flash*]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I know JB gets a hard time sometimes, but they have created a great maps page, and I great appreciate them for letting us share their maps.  That is what is underneath the map above.   And this is exactly why January is a very tough forecast.  It is a true wildcard - really extreme, polar opposite analogs.  In this case, just polar.

NSFW. I was going to report this to a moderator but saw '46 day' so we good. Those pinks are hot!

[John1122]

3k NAM is trying to give another 1/2 inch to 2 inch event to the area on Wednesday night. The RGEM is sort of on board too. 

[iluvsnow]

Here's a very good analysis from Michael Clark, CEO of BAMWX this morning (12/4) on what he believes will happen now through January. Excellent technical analysis of what he sees ahead. He gives permission to share across all platforms.

 

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z CMC and 6z EURO AIFS are not dissimilar....decent chance of a winter storm somewhere in the TN Valley forum.

[Carvers Gap]

17 minutes ago, iluvsnow said:

Here's a very good analysis from Michael Clark, CEO of BAMWX this morning (12/4) on what he believes will happen now through January. Excellent technical analysis of what he sees ahead. He gives permission to share across all platforms.

 

That fits with the colder January analogs.

[nrgjeff]

Mele Kalikimaka - Merry Christmas in Hawaiin. I'm buying into the warm pattern flip middle of December. 

Asian weather pattern situation is out of phase for Siberian delivery to North America. East China might get one more shot of cold. However the forecast troughing in the GOA is pretty bearish for North America. 

[Carvers Gap]

That was pretty close to a special run by the 12z GFS.  The CMS is close. 

[Carvers Gap]

I think there is a chance that we are gonna be tracking a pretty big storm around the 11-12th.  Modeling was west yesterday.  The Canadian and GFS are well east of that today.  Even the ICON has it to some extent.   I don't have a clear idea on where it will be, but it could be significant.  SLP or wave riding a cold front.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

SLP or wave riding a cold front.

We seem to do pretty well with these during Decembers lately.