John1122 Posted Monday at 05:12 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:12 PM GFS is insistent in being in the opposite camp of the Euro/Canadian in regards to the trough being in the West vs the East. It's now got us in the hot box for the first week of January while the West gets pounded by Sierra snow and cold. I know long range modeling is prone to jumping around, but in less than 24 hours it's went from showing 2 feet of snow and lower 30s in NE Texas to 70s. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 05:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:25 PM I could be wrong, but the GFS looks in error. It has been doing this off and on for the last 7-10 days(same time frame). The issue is that it digs into the southwest and holds. That is a plausible feature, but it still kicks out. The GFS is basically about 4-5 days slower than other modeling. Its own ensemble really doesn't support it....though it is still running right now. It might be a sign that we are seeing some can kicking, but I am going to need to see some other modeling hint at it. For now, the GFS is an outlier even in its own camp. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:37 PM Best I can tell the GFS is getting hung up in the Southwest. I really deepens that storm, and thus pops a ridge in front as it digs. That could happen. Cutoffs in the Southwest are a legit feature, and they are also a legit model flaw. I don't see any other model doing that at the moment. The AIFS at 6z just rolled it on through as did the 12z CMC. Something to watch as the GFS sometimes will pick up on trends, but it has been woeful at times at being completely bling to cold fronts. The current GFS is very similar to the old Euro in terms of warm bias and things getting hung-up in the Southwest. Again, it is worth watching. That looks more like it really brings the cold with the second front around the 7th. The 6z AIFS was glacier worthy. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Monday at 06:42 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:42 PM The only thing I can think to add is that the MJO RMM plots and whatever combo of factors that go into giving any individual day a place on the plot (OLR, wind anomalies, etc...) have been really stuck in low amp 6 for a few days now. I've not really posted much since I don't know what I can add at this time, but I have been watching the MJO and even though it's been slow it hasn't really gotten stuck over the past few weeks. It is now firmly stuck. Maybe those same "stalled" anomalies are competing with each other in how the OP GFS model resolves and propagates their influences them and causing some western trough tendencies? Feels kind of like I'm grasping at straws, but western troughs... ugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Monday at 06:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:46 PM Definitely quite a spread with tropical Pac convection, but it does seem to be trying to glacially slide eastward. First thought when I saw this was Darwin looks less stormy than Tahiti and sure enough we have a rare (for this fall and early winter) negative SOI today. Pretty good drop over the past few days too, relative to recent trends: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 06:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:47 PM Right now it is just the GFS…..which has had problems of late. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Monday at 06:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:49 PM 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Right now it is just the GFS…..which has had problems of late. Just looked at the 12z Euro and that looked nice. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 06:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:50 PM I have done this dance with the GFS too many times. Sometimes it scores a coup. To me it looks like it has feedback over the southwest which causes the following trough to dig there. Its ensemble still brings a lot of cold eastward by the 7-8th. That timing difference has been there off and on. Everything else has a cold front coming in by the 3rd. The GFS kind of hops between the 3rd and the next front around the 7th or 8th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 06:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:58 PM Looks like some really cold air is about to enter North America. Remember the LR modeling that completely erased cold in NA??? Looking more and more that was an error(missed the refill). That type of severe cold is going to wreck havoc on modeling. Good times! LOL 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 07:10 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:10 PM 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Best I can tell the GFS is getting hung up in the Southwest. I really deepens that storm, and thus pops a ridge in front as it digs. That could happen. Cutoffs in the Southwest are a legit feature, and they are also a legit model flaw. I don't see any other model doing that at the moment. The AIFS at 6z just rolled it on through as did the 12z CMC. Something to watch as the GFS sometimes will pick up on trends, but it has been woeful at times at being completely bling to cold fronts. The current GFS is very similar to the old Euro in terms of warm bias and things getting hung-up in the Southwest. Again, it is worth watching. That looks more like it really brings the cold with the second front around the 7th. The 6z AIFS was glacier worthy. Yeah, it's as if it traded places with the Euro in holding energy back in the SW. As you alluded to, that can and does happen sometimes. Hopefully it doesn't and if it does, blocking will still keep us in the Trough and that could act as a southern branch feature spitting disturbances along the low Road. That works out good sometimes too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 08:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:29 PM 12z EPS is a beaut, Clark. To the 12z GFS, the sh$%$@ers full, bud. The Euro Weeklies are even beautifuler. But after watching the Vols against Ohio State, I feel this is a week to have my affairs in order. Interestingly, it was the GFS which was too warm at range for Columbus. It stalled a cold front erroneously at range. The Canadian and Euro were better if memory serves me correctly. But the GFS was so freaking bad, I was afraid to say(about ten days out) that Columbus was going to be cold. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 08:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:30 PM @AMZ8990, if I was in you neck of the woods, I would be feeling pretty good about a winter storm in January. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Monday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:50 PM While he's right at times and wrong at times, like anyone looking towards the long range, Eric Webb noted that multiple factors in the background state did not favor a persistent mountain trough, but instead Alaskan/Pacific blocking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 10:27 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:27 PM 3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: The only thing I can think to add is that the MJO RMM plots and whatever combo of factors that go into giving any individual day a place on the plot (OLR, wind anomalies, etc...) have been really stuck in low amp 6 for a few days now. I've not really posted much since I don't know what I can add at this time, but I have been watching the MJO and even though it's been slow it hasn't really gotten stuck over the past few weeks. It is now firmly stuck. Maybe those same "stalled" anomalies are competing with each other in how the OP GFS model resolves and propagates their influences them and causing some western trough tendencies? Feels kind of like I'm grasping at straws, but western troughs... ugh. You've hit on what the problem is I believe. I think the GFS incorporates the MJO as one of it's top "Ingredient" ( can't think of the proper word so..lol) in it's Medium Range Equations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted Monday at 11:55 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:55 PM 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: @AMZ8990, if I was in you neck of the woods, I would be feeling pretty good about a winter storm in January. Thanks Carv, and most definitely. I’m definitely looking forward to January and the potential we have there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 03:53 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:53 AM Looking back on the Dec 16th runs of the GFS, it was showing Christmas morning in the 40-45 range across Eastern Tennessee and 50-58 across the Western half of the state. Now the forecast temps are about 7-9 degrees cooler than what it was showing a week ago. It's been overwarm often in December. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Tuesday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:56 PM GFS tried to dump the cold West around Thanksgiving and it ended up barreling east. I'm normally quick to jump on the West first deal, with stubborn SER, but not this time. GFS has a history as noted above. Finally the AI versions strongly favor the Euro. Even the AI version of the GFS caves to the Euro. Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah. Enjoy the NBA Christmas lineup. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted Tuesday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:38 PM 40 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: GFS tried to dump the cold West around Thanksgiving and it ended up barreling east. I'm normally quick to jump on the West first deal, with stubborn SER, but not this time. GFS has a history as noted above. Finally the AI versions strongly favor the Euro. Even the AI version of the GFS caves to the Euro. Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah. Enjoy the NBA Christmas lineup. Merry Christmas to you also & to everyone else! I hope it’s a wonderful time for everyone! Be safe in your travels! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:59 PM 43 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: GFS tried to dump the cold West around Thanksgiving and it ended up barreling east. I'm normally quick to jump on the West first deal, with stubborn SER, but not this time. GFS has a history as noted above. Finally the AI versions strongly favor the Euro. Even the AI version of the GFS caves to the Euro. Merry Christmas. Happy Hanukkah. Enjoy the NBA Christmas lineup. Yeah, I can't really find anything or anybody that knows about any update to the GFS over the last Year but, it sure is acting like something was done. Merry Christmas Jeff ! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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