Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:55 PM All of E TN is roughly 2 degreesF BN. Today will put a dent into that, but we should recover some of that by this weekend. I don't know that I want the TPV getting broken up, but we may be left with no choice in the matter - looks to me like the GFS has some pretty significant warming is taking place between 10-50mb. At 50mb, it gets jostled pretty good. Again, I don't want it wrapped up tight at high latitudes....but seems like (of late) the predominance of cold goes to Asia w/ a split. But that is pretty strong warming on the 12z GFS. My guess(stress guess) is that warming may well be a precursor to a -NAO later in January. Warming between 10-50mb seems to be the dashboard warning light for that during the past several years. Again, not sure I want to see the NAO fire just yet as well. January looks pretty decent without too many bells and whistles. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 05:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:00 PM 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: All of E TN is roughly 2 degreesF BN. Today will put a dent into that, but we should recover some of that by this weekend. I don't know that I want the TPV getting broken up, but we may be left with no choice in the matter - looks to me like the GFS has some pretty significant warming is taking place between 10-50mb. At 50mb, it gets jostled pretty good. Again, I don't want it wrapped up tight at high latitudes....but seems like (of late) the predominance of cold goes to Asia w/ a split. But that is pretty strong warming on the 12z GFS. My guess(stress guess) is that warming may well be a precursor to a -NAO later in January. Warming between 10-50mb seems to be the dashboard warning light for that during the past several years. Again, not sure I want to see the NAO fire just yet as well. January looks pretty decent without too many bells and whistles. Cohen noted in his write-up that Canadian strat. warming is being advertised. That happened last January and worked against us. He's saying he expects it to dump the Cold into Europe. Hopefully, it as is the case with some SSW'S does opposite this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:33 PM By Months end, it looks like the Month will Average warmer than Average once again. As Carvers alluded to above, the cold shot Friday and Saturday will keep us below for a few days. Strong warming commences just after Christmas that should push us above. So, really not alot above but... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 07:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:16 PM That last week should be warm enough to get us slightly above average. The month as a whole will have been below average for temps. So, I don't sweat averages. Slight above average in E TN has meant decent winter weather at times. Either way, both the 12z Euro and GFS are starting to advertise a sharp cool down after the new year. Hopefully (and I think it is), what we are seeing is the beginnings of 2-3 weeks of cold temps to start January. I think week two into week three will be the coldest if weeklies(both GEFS and Euro) are correct. As for Europe getting cold, that is generally a good sign for the eastern US as that correlates to colder temps. I think we are gonna be just fine this winter. I could be wrong. The only thing one really has to be careful of....is whether this upcoming warmup is longer than advertised. That has happened during recent winters. I do think it lasts around a week this time. The strat warm stuff can really cause havoc in modeling. Again, I think we come up good this time around. The good thing is that we can see the cool down already starting to peak around the corder at d14-16. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:53 PM We are currently -4 for the month. Two mornings in the lower 10s helped that along a great deal. Oneida is -4, Norris is -4.2, Monteagle is -4.4, Oak Ridge is -4.2. Odd that points East of 75 are only -1.5 to -2.5 while points west of 75 are that much cooler. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 08:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:08 PM 12z EPS shows the beginning of what should be BN heights over the SE for an extended time....~3 weeks. Cold begins to fill the trough at the end of week one of Jan. Good to see ensembles with that look. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 08:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:09 PM 14 minutes ago, John1122 said: We are currently -4 for the month. Two mornings in the lower 10s helped that along a great deal. Oneida is -4, Norris is -4.2, Monteagle is -4.4, Oak Ridge is -4.2. Odd that points East of 75 are only -1.5 to -2.5 while points west of 75 are that much cooler. I'll check my stats in a bit but, I'm thinking around -4 here as well . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 09:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:47 PM MRX mentions possibility of a tornado tomorrow. This seems like the sort of conditional set up that has surprised us the past couple of years. I am by no means a severe enthusiast, but time of day and any potential clearing, relative storm motion, yada yada just strikes me as having some sneaky potential. We need some thunder either way. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 10:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:49 PM 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: MRX mentions possibility of a tornado tomorrow. This seems like the sort of conditional set up that has surprised us the past couple of years. I am by no means a severe enthusiast, but time of day and any potential clearing, relative storm motion, yada yada just strikes me as having some sneaky potential. We need some thunder either way. Cumberland Plateau has been like tornado alley lately. Ya'll can keep those babies over there! LOL - sort of LOL. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 10:49 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:49 PM I just want a good East coast blizzard to track. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Wednesday at 02:30 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:30 AM https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869018465316593852?t=jocmMGKx3f6w0d13ARnfag&s=19 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869020600770994313?t=4Zs54JnWc3Y_XVQapJTx6Q&s=19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 03:10 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:10 AM 33 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869018465316593852?t=jocmMGKx3f6w0d13ARnfag&s=19 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1869020600770994313?t=4Zs54JnWc3Y_XVQapJTx6Q&s=19 I have come to a similar conclusion, but I am just model watching!!! LOL. The GEFS ext actually looks better than the Euro Weeklies tonight which is a BIG change. That EPO/PNA ridge looks like the default for at least the first two months of winter. That trough will try to go into the Mountain West for February, but as those wavelengths shorten up...that trough will kick eastward 1-2 times. I like the setup. I did not like the setup prior to October. However, that colder set of analogs is maybe going to make some noise for Jan 5-20. No promises at this range, but fun to watch. Great share. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Wednesday at 05:06 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:06 AM 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: I have come to a similar conclusion, but I am just model watching!!! LOL. The GEFS ext actually looks better than the Euro Weeklies tonight which is a BIG change. That EPO/PNA ridge looks like the default for at least the first two months of winter. That trough will try to go into the Mountain West for February, but as those wavelengths shorten up...that trough will kick eastward 1-2 times. I like the setup. I did not like the setup prior to October. However, that colder set of analogs is maybe going to make some noise for Jan 5-20. No promises at this range, but fun to watch. Great share. Great Post man ! Good analysis extrapolating on what he said and how you see February. Makes sense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 05:12 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:12 PM 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Wednesday at 05:18 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:18 PM Finally got some really nice thunder here! Make of that what ye will for the pattern. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 05:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:19 PM Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said: Finally got some really nice thunder here! Make of that what ye will for the pattern. You are doing good work over there! Keep it up!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 05:21 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:21 PM The 12z GFS with an inland runner around Dec 30. It pops as a result of a cutter which effectively ends the warm-up. The GFS brings a pretty chill regime after that. Maybe a slider with that setup if it verifies. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted Wednesday at 06:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:53 PM 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Finally got some really nice thunder here! Make of that what ye will for the pattern. Can verify it held up here as well! Have had 6-8 nice strikes and resulting rumbles. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Wednesday at 10:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:06 PM Euro control weeklies look eerily similar to the 95-95 winter progression as best as I can remember it from personal experience. This is not as severe, but formidable. One shot to start the month, relaxes, big shot to end the month. The ensembles would be colder if they verified, and not smoothed. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Wednesday at 11:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:32 PM Least signs today at that breaking down 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 05:29 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:29 AM Carvers shades of '96 showed up on the GFS tonight. Last year it did well sniffing out systems at long range. This year it's having some false starts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 05:57 AM Share Posted Thursday at 05:57 AM The NAM and other models are increasing the snow potential for the Friday afternoon and night time frame too. The thunder earlier is working it seems. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted Thursday at 02:15 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:15 PM We had hail yesterday with the storms. Not much lightning down here though. And only 0.15" of rain. I have a few friends with wells that are concerned. They are still getting low water warnings on their systems even in December. That's almost unheard of. The only real heavy rain event we've had since July was Helene, and that all fell so quickly it mostly ran off and did nothing for groundwater replenishment. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 02:40 PM Share Posted Thursday at 02:40 PM The big moves overnight were the GEFS at 6z finally caving to the EPS. That is big, because they haven't been on the same page for a week or so.... Looks like a pretty significant cold shot inbound sometime after the New Year. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 05:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:22 PM 12z GFS (WAAAAY out there around 11) is showing an Apps snowstorm of 1-2'. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Thursday at 06:29 PM Share Posted Thursday at 06:29 PM I know it is hour 384 on the 12z GFS, but can we all admit that it would have been fun to see the next few slides? 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Thursday at 08:09 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:09 PM MRX has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the mountains of East Tennessee and SWVA. I expected a WWA. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Thursday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:22 PM John, I finally checked my Stations Stats for the Month. As of midnight we are 3.8 below average Ts for December. So, right along with yours there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Friday at 02:37 AM Share Posted Friday at 02:37 AM MRX has modified their expectations: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Friday at 03:44 AM Share Posted Friday at 03:44 AM 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: MRX has modified their expectations: Makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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