Daniel Boone Posted December 15 Share Posted December 15 1 hour ago, iluvsnow said: Either the kiss of death for snow lovers, or hope springs eternal. Updated this AM (12/15). Imo, he bought into the persistent +TNH advertised Pattern and the dominance of the +PNA so far being a indicator of the Seasonals advertised Pattern. Would be nice to see that pan out but I don't buy it. Weak STJ at best is not going to feed that. I'm still on a back and forth Winter belief with probably average Temps and Snowfall. Which is still better than what we've had last couple Winter's. Hopefully the MJO doesn't muck up my Outlook , as there is the threat of it hanging in warm phases more than cold. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 15 Share Posted December 15 4 hours ago, iluvsnow said: Either the kiss of death for snow lovers, or hope springs eternal. Updated this AM (12/15). I’m pulling for Miami’s equal chances…….. lol 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 15 Share Posted December 15 The Euro tossed out a snowball for Christmas. Probably a headfake, as every model seems to be throwing them out there in that time frame. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 15 Share Posted December 15 The 12z GEPS and 12z Euro are showing the pattern reset advertised by the Euro extended modeling right around the New Year. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 15 Share Posted December 15 The Euro Weeklies bring the trough back during the first week of January. That look connects really well to the 12z EPS run...meaning if you took the EPS, the Weeklies would pick up right where the EPS left off. That is decent continuity. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 15 Share Posted December 15 2 hours ago, tnweathernut said: I’m pulling for Miami’s equal chances…….. lol The real question is whether people in Miami are pulling for equal chances! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 15 Share Posted December 15 I still think its a waiting game.We always get killed in winter in our parts when the jet enhances past 150W-180W(SER),but still so far even into the long range even into East Asia has been a rather a active period,could be the warm SSTS into the Sea of Japan,Yellow Sea,dunno.But right now seems more like a progressive pattern.yesterday the Euro looked like +NAO,today its now hinting a Rex block into Greenland in the long range 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 15 Share Posted December 15 31 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: I still think its a waiting game.We always get killed in winter in our parts when the jet enhances past 150W-180W(SER),but still so far even into the long range even into East Asia has been a rather a active period,could be the warm SSTS into the Sea of Japan,Yellow Sea,dunno.But right now seems more like a progressive pattern.yesterday the Euro looked like +NAO,today its now hinting a Rex block into Greenland in the long range Yeah, some oddities for sure. I was just thinking awhile ago if by some chance blocking could manifest we may be in good shape around Christmas. Just hard to expect that with a +QBO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 16 Share Posted December 16 I think we are gonna be in good shape when all is said and done. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:45 PM The 12zGFS finally sees what should be....it is cold in early January somewhere in North America. All kidding aside, it looks like the warmup will last from Christmas Day to just around the New Years. It wouldn't surprise me to see it go into the first week of January. The Weeklies (Euro and American) depict a fairly strong cold shot from say Jan 5 - Jan 20th(or just beyond). That is right where we want it. This is how I remember winters as a kid. We would get some minor snow and cold during December(remember I lived in Knoxville during the 70s), and then Jan/Feb were when we expected winter to really do some things. The weather pattern really seems to want to park a ridge where the EPO or PNA regions are. That seems to be the pattern tipping its hand. I do think the trough is going to try to get back into the Mountain West. They have had a really good week of winter weather this week. They will likely see more, but likely us as well. By Christmas, we will have been in the cold pattern since the last week of November. That is about four weeks. Very tough to hold cold at this latitude longer than that. I think we see a warm-up and the cold return shortly after the New Year. I really don't sweat the cold getting scoured out of North America due to a chinook. Chinooks happen. That is why there is a name for it. I imagine if you lived along the eastern foothills of the Rockies for most of the last millennium, a chinook would have been a welcome thing! North America can refill with cold air quite quickly, sometimes within 5-7 days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 06:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:23 PM 24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12zGFS finally sees what should be....it is cold in early January somewhere in North America. All kidding aside, it looks like the warmup will last from Christmas Day to just around the New Years. It wouldn't surprise me to see it go into the first week of January. The Weeklies (Euro and American) depict a fairly strong cold shot from say Jan 5 - Jan 20th(or just beyond). That is right where we want it. This is how I remember winters as a kid. We would get some minor snow and cold during December(remember I lived in Knoxville during the 70s), and then Jan/Feb were when we expected winter to really do some things. The weather pattern really seems to want to park a ridge where the EPO or PNA regions are. That seems to be the pattern tipping its hand. I do think the trough is going to try to get back into the Mountain West. They have had a really good week of winter weather this week. They will likely see more, but likely us as well. By Christmas, we will have been in the cold pattern since the last week of November. That is about four weeks. Very tough to hold cold at this latitude longer than that. I think we see a warm-up and the cold return shortly after the New Year. I really don't sweat the cold getting scoured out of North America due to a chinook. Chinooks happen. That is why there is a name for it. I imagine if you lived along the eastern foothills of the Rockies for most of the last millennium, a chinook would have been a welcome thing! North America can refill with cold air quite quickly, sometimes within 5-7 days. Yeah, so far the back and forth, average type Winter looks to be on Track. The JMA is showing a Plains/Ms Valley mean Trough position for January. The other's a bit East. That bodes well for us if realized. It makes sense given the West and North Pac SST'S now. The possibility of a further West Trough is there but, depending on the Nina Strength and position, imo, in whether the mean position transitions to there I think. There is the risk of what seems to be a possibility of a far western trough along with a far eastern one. Ridge between. Definitely don't want that. Talk about Canadian Chinook, whew ! The good thing is that's unlikely. I agree with you on the Chinook's Carvers. You just don't won't what I alluded to last paragraph as then it would be overboard, lol . Occasional and short duration we can deal with. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted Monday at 06:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:28 PM 31 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12zGFS finally sees what should be....it is cold in early January somewhere in North America. All kidding aside, it looks like the warmup will last from Christmas Day to just around the New Years. It wouldn't surprise me to see it go into the first week of January. The Weeklies (Euro and American) depict a fairly strong cold shot from say Jan 5 - Jan 20th(or just beyond). That is right where we want it. This is how I remember winters as a kid. We would get some minor snow and cold during December(remember I lived in Knoxville during the 70s), and then Jan/Feb were when we expected winter to really do some things. The weather pattern really seems to want to park a ridge where the EPO or PNA regions are. That seems to be the pattern tipping its hand. I do think the trough is going to try to get back into the Mountain West. They have had a really good week of winter weather this week. They will likely see more, but likely us as well. By Christmas, we will have been in the cold pattern since the last week of November. That is about four weeks. Very tough to hold cold at this latitude longer than that. I think we see a warm-up and the cold return shortly after the New Year. I really don't sweat the cold getting scoured out of North America due to a chinook. Chinooks happen. That is why there is a name for it. I imagine if you lived along the eastern foothills of the Rockies for most of the last millennium, a chinook would have been a welcome thing! North America can refill with cold air quite quickly, sometimes within 5-7 days. Your last sentence is dead on. Given the right pattern, our source region of cold can flip dramatically in a relatively short amount of time. And over the next few weeks, even slightly warmer than normal temperature anomalies in Canada would be pretty chilly in our neck of the woods…even factoring moderation. Besides, we don’t need to be well below normal in the heart of winter for it to snow around here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 06:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:49 PM 2 minutes ago, BNAwx said: Your last sentence is dead on. Given the right pattern, our source region of cold can flip dramatically in a relatively short amount of time. And over the next few weeks, even slightly warmer than normal temperature anomalies in Canada would be pretty chilly in our neck of the woods…even factoring moderation. Besides, we don’t need to be well below normal in the heart of winter for it to snow around here. If CPF sets back up( and it should) it should fairly quickly. I have witnessed several times however, to where the Pattern set up perfectly for a Snowstorm but not enough cold air came down and we got cold Rain, even at higher elevations. So, it does hurt if Canada gets scoured, make no mistake about it. Chinook's are a normal occurrence but, some don't last long or don't completely scour most of Canada of Cold. Agree on what's mild in Canada is still cold here. Alot depends in how much above the cold source is and how expansive. Also how much above it is in the US down to us. Cold up there, once Chinook's subside automatically begins to get colder even without CAA from CPF for obvious reasons. CPF is what you want for rapid refilling. This is basically what most of us already know but thought I'd bring it up due to reference and conversation. The Winter of 01-02 comes to mind as an example of a depleted Cold Source as Canada was scoured and totally ruined us on several chances for significant Snow. The good thing this Winter imo is, strong HLB actually blocked CPF that Winter . So, that shouldn't be a problem this Winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 06:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:58 PM 8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: If CPF sets back up( and it should) it should fairly quickly. I have witnessed several times however, to where the Pattern set up perfectly for a Snowstorm but not enough cold air came down and we got cold Rain, even at higher elevations. So, it does hurt if Canada gets scoured, make no mistake about it. Chinook's are a normal occurrence but, some don't last long or don't completely scour most of Canada of Cold. Agree on what's mild in Canada is still cold here. Alot depends in how much above the cold source is and how expansive. Also how much above it is in the US down to us. Cold up there, once Chinook's subside automatically begins to get colder even without CAA from CPF for obvious reasons. CPF is what you want for rapid refilling. This is basically what most of us already know but thought I'd bring it up due to reference and conversation. The Winter of 01-02 comes to mind as an example of a depleted Cold Source as Canada was scoured and totally ruined us on several chances for significant Snow. The good thing this Winter imo is, strong HLB actually blocked CPF that Winter . So, that shouldn't be a problem this Winter. CPF is maybe something-Pacific-forcing? What is the entire acronym? Central Pacific Forcing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 07:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:19 PM 13 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: CPF is maybe something-Pacific-forcing? What is the entire acronym? Central Pacific Forcing? Cross Polar Flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:39 PM 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: Cross Polar Flow. LOL. I am glad I asked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 08:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:40 PM The Euro Weeklies Control run was just frigid. That is the first time in a while that I have seen the control reflect the ensemble. Good run. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 08:58 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:58 PM Best I can tell, it looks like a strong cold front is being signaled for sometime between Jan 3-5. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted Monday at 09:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:13 PM 15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Best I can tell, it looks like a strong cold front is being signaled for sometime between Jan 3-5. Agree, nice analysis. Hopefully this timing holds, and we can get some good upstream snow cover in advance of this. 2013-14 had it, but unfortunately snow cover across the lower 48 is currently anemic at best. While there have been cold shots, only the immediate lake belts have benefited…and even there, too many thaws to maintain the snow cover. Just seems extremely difficult to get a proper and truly wintry December east of the Rockies these days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted Monday at 11:55 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:55 PM I’ve got some Thunderstorms rolling through my area at the moment. Hopefully that’s a sign of good things to come! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 12:41 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:41 AM The 18z GFS fires the first operational shots of cold around the New Year. It is prob a bit fast, but that will do. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted Tuesday at 01:14 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:14 AM 1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said: I’ve got some Thunderstorms rolling through my area at the moment. Hopefully that’s a sign of good things to come! Same here. Lightning flashes have been frequent at times. More instability than expected I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted Tuesday at 01:22 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:22 AM 40 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GFS fires the first operational shots of cold around the New Year. It is prob a bit fast, but that will do. Not the same pattern but reminds me of three years ago when we roasted around the holidays. I want to say New Years was severe and then middle/east TN struck gold during mid-January with multiple events. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 02:15 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:15 AM 52 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Not the same pattern but reminds me of three years ago when we roasted around the holidays. I want to say New Years was severe and then middle/east TN struck gold during mid-January with multiple events. Definitely could be overrunning. 93-94 and 95-96 (light versions) are on the table. Those are big analogs, and I am holding back using them for the moment, but they are in the mix. BN temps during our coldest weeks often works out pretty good. Once I see operationals picking this up, I will feel like this dog is gonna hunt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 03:06 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:06 AM I think we take this....The 500 looks really good BTW on a week by week basis. The GEFS ext also looks similar. The locked-in torch was my concern before winter. Again, this leans towards colder analogs. January won't be a slam dunk until Jan 31st!!! Lots of uncertainty, but that ridge out West(eastern Pac) seems to really want to be there. A little Easter egg at the end of this...how sweet it would be to hold that through Jan, and then the NAO fires for February(when it is less likely to hook into an eastern ridge). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Tuesday at 03:09 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:09 AM This seems to be a winter where we just get lots of little snows, but those winters can prove to be decently satisfying as there is plenty to track. TRI has 1.1" of snow for December, and that is not bad against climatology(even older climatology). Nickels and dimes.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 04:04 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:04 AM 44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: This seems to be a winter where we just get lots of little snows, but those winters can prove to be decently satisfying as there is plenty to track. TRI has 1.1" of snow for December, and that is not bad against climatology(even older climatology). Nickels and dimes.... I was just thinking the other day, this is how winter was back in the 70s and 80s. It started snowing in November and has snowed several times since then. Including one day time event. I'll have to look back and see the last time we had three snows that accumulated in late November into the first ten days of December. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Tuesday at 04:56 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:56 AM 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: This seems to be a winter where we just get lots of little snows, but those winters can prove to be decently satisfying as there is plenty to track. TRI has 1.1" of snow for December, and that is not bad against climatology(even older climatology). Nickels and dimes.... Agree man. We're off to the best start in a long time. 3.6 inches here so far. 2.6" of that fell Nov. 21-22. November above average. December if finished as is is below average Snow. The Average being 3". Back in the 50's and 60's the Avg Annual Snowfall for Pennington gap was nearly 2 Feet. Nov.Avg 2"+ Dec. Avg was 5"+, January 7+", Feb. 6+ and March 2+. and I think KTRI was 18". The nowaday Average in Pennington gap is about 15 inches if measured correctly and officially*. KTRI 11" I think last I saw. I used to have a Sheet with the Averages from 1950-80. Of course, much of Lee County averages more as most of the County is more elevated than Pennington gap. Same as much of the Tri City area does more than KTRI. Also, Snowfall was actually more than what was recorded back then as measurement wasn't nearly as precise. They would measure generally after the Snow had ended and at a single level location. If the Snow fell overnight, they'd measure upon rising the next Morning. Averages have really declined alot over the Year's. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted Tuesday at 02:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:04 PM 11 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: BN temps during our coldest weeks often works out pretty good. I used to swear by this....until 2014 happened in middle and west TN. We've had several quality events since that dreadful season, but I still have nightmare flashbacks involving above average snowfall in all directions, quality deep cold in the heart of winter, and almost nothing to show for it. That said, I'm optimistic about the second and third weeks of January this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Tuesday at 03:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:09 PM 1 hour ago, Coach B said: I used to swear by this....until 2014 happened in middle and west TN. We've had several quality events since that dreadful season, but I still have nightmare flashbacks involving above average snowfall in all directions, quality deep cold in the heart of winter, and almost nothing to show for it. That said, I'm optimistic about the second and third weeks of January this year. That's what ive been thinking as well.The SPV is fairly solid right now and not really much signs of changing,.long range the Euro is about on the pole,so who knows.2014 when it got really cold the PV was weak,much weaker and displaced,maybe that can happen again.Least its been a wet and not a well AN pattern as of now,we need the rain 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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