Daniel Boone Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: I think we are going to see that trough to to setup in the Mountain West. For whatever reason, I am slowly coming around to the idea that we are going to have more cold here than my original winter forecast/ideas. January has been wild card in my mind. At this point, it looks like we are going to see part of January turn out cold which is a win in my book. Hope your time with your family is goin as well as it can! The 18z GFS, as John notes, is back in the snow column for the 11-12th. I continue to like that setup around that time frame. Yeah, it would work out to a back and forth Winter pretty good. A trough axis that oscillates from the Rockies/Plains to the Apps and occasionally further East can really work out in our favor with more gulf involvement as I think you and I touched on recently. That should keep the SER squelched enough for some Winter Storm Opportunities. I'm still not sold on next week. Hopefully, as John alluded to, thing's will become more clear cut. Thanks for the wellwishes my friend. We made it back home last night. Unfortunately, I came down with a Cold while there. Our Church is having a Dinner over in your neck of the woods tomorrow so, hopefully I'm up to it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Interestingly, the GFS Weeklies LR ext has moved to the Euro Weeklies look of retrograding the trough into the West after the warm-up. The 0z EPS and GEPS have that this morning around the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Interesting look ahead update from BAMWX this morning (12/6/24) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 46 minutes ago, iluvsnow said: Interesting look ahead update from BAMWX this morning (12/6/24) This video along with the Wednesday video were well presented with little or no outright hype. These are in contrast to yesterday’s BAMwx tweet showing the extreme WeatherBell map from the 6Z CFS, which I still think was cherry-picking hype to get more clicks. Many folks who read it don’t have the knowledge to realize that the chance of that verifying closely is extremely small being that it would be record breaking mid Jan cold. But again this and the Wed. video were well done imho. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Again, I am not sure the CFSv2 500 charts are off. Temp maps are always cold on WxBell. However, it only takes a little bit of mental adjustment to understand where the troughs/ridges are. The 12/5 Euro Weeklies, CMC Weeklies, and CFSv2 look decently similar for the pattern evolution after Dec 21. I agree with Bam that I don't see the January torch which we have seen during recent years. I don't watch or read a lot from Bam as a few winters ago they tended to switch with every model run. But, I can look with my own two eyes and see the ridge try to go up again either just west of the West Coast or the PNA. There are certainly runs which don't have that. But the majority of runs have a trough developing in the East just after Christmas. Is it right? I think possibly. A trough later in December and early January actually fits La Nina climatology which I think we are in despite the graph not being there yet. I can't tell how strong that cold shot is. We have been talking about it here well before Bam had a video about it - no offense to Bam and no offense taken by his video being posted(I like listening to other forecasts or reading them). ....Again, and I sound like a broken record....the January analog package has some very cold representatives. Some of our best winters have been with a weak La Nina. Some of those analogs are way AN. It is no surprise that LR ext modeling is showing a colder solution. Will it verify? IDK. I tend to lean that January is going to have some colder weeks. The Euro Weeklies have some skill in the 3-4 week range with the long wave pattern. Normally, if the pattern is going to go fully to crap...you can see it on modeling about now. I don't see that - yet. And if that occurs, you can blame me for writing that last sentence! 5 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 I took snapshots of the Euro Weeklies progression from Dec 16 to Jan 21. It looks reasonable. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Here is the 30d map at 500 from ~Dec21-Jan21....temps are normal to slighly below. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Rare good news from me.. AI versions have another sharp cold front around Dec. 20. Weeklies hint at it, but the AI version is full tilt cold into the East. The AI versions have been first to sniff out cold before. They typically don't just false alarm like the GFS. We'll see. If they keep stacking up wins I may have to convert to the school of machine learning. I'm just talking temps. If one wants snow in southern Tennessee... The only way to win is not to play. -Wargames 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 This is the CFSv2 500 30 day from 6z for Dec 20-Jan19. 5 of the last 6 runs of the CFS have the trough in the east regardless of color shading. The trough varies in depth. Now, the 0z CFSv2 had the mean 30d trough in the southwest. So, I don't want to misrepresent what the model is depicting. It looks remarkably like the Euro Weeklies ext from yesterday. Its 500 pattern is slightly east of the Euro Weeklies, and I would argue that is a bias of that model(eastern trough default). Now, a lot of this will wobble and sometimes change drastically. I am just showing that the CFSv2 isn't that far off at 500 from the Weeklies. So, while its temp maps at Wxbell are extreme, this is less so if one(mentally) dials back the oranges and blues a bit. I think the wxbell cfsv2 500 maps are still very usable - slightly overdone but the Euro is probably underdone. The temp maps are useful if one just understands they algorithm is overdone. (edit added) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Again, something this winter has just seemed off. I don't know what it is. I definitely think we see warm-ups. That is true for any winter. But my gut says there is more cold in this pattern than what was being depicted by climatology and what we saw/are seeing in seasonal models. My gut can be plenty wrong BTW. Maybe we are just overdue for a normal winter in E TN. I need to go back and look at the 88-89 analog. Seems like that was a warm/dry summer followed by a normal winter...but that is off the top of my head. I haven't looked. I just remember it being hot on the farm in 88 maybe? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 The Euro Weeklies do denote a cold shot around Christmas Eve w/ a secondary and tertiary shot coming in successive weeks in January. Is the jig up after Jan 20 or is it a thaw. Either way, January still looks like a month where winter is still in business. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 I should add, I am not sure I have seen the Euro Weeklies that cold during the lat 10 days of the run...pretty frigid for an ensemble. BN temps during our coldest week of the year are about all we can ask for at this range. Pretty decent signal from this far out. The Euro Weeklies are now almost out of shoulder season, and can hit targets at range. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Really tough to ask for much better than this.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 And honestly, the above is probably a setup where we don't want the NAO to fire. That is EPO driven w/ some SER embedded. We might need a little bit of ridging to our south with that, but we take that 10 out of 10 times. That setup is bringing air right off the pole and from Siberia. We could see some cold air which doesn't modify much with that look. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 Precip is AN in eastern areas with that setup as well.....sorry for the flurry of posts. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 The CFSv2 is very similar with its setup at 12z... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 More.....I am trying not to like this. Wave runs a front. Slightly negative tilt. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 There is a stationary front that sets up around Dec 9th. Cold front hits it around the 11th, and sends a wave up the stalled front. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 The JMA used to sniff out storms. It is definitely not my "go to," but I do look at it. If you really want to see how long this front stalls, go to Tropical Tidbits for the EURO AIFS 12z run. That front just sits there, and then a wave runs the length of it. The JMA would be about perfect for here. Cold air crashing into a stalled GOM front is my favorite setup for big storms. I am NOT saying that happens, but man... Nice to see modeling hinting at that chance. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 6 Share Posted December 6 38 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The JMA used to sniff out storms. It is definitely not my "go to," but I do look at it. If you really want to see how long this front stalls, go to Tropical Tidbits for the EURO AIFS 12z run. That front just sits there, and then a wave runs the length of it. The JMA would be about perfect for here. Cold air crashing into a stalled GOM front is my favorite setup for big storms. I am NOT saying that happens, but man... Nice to see modeling hinting at that chance. Verbatim that would be some heavy snow with that set-up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 Reading some other forums and seeing comments about how Nino-like the pattern is. I tend to respectfully disagree with that. The bout of extended summer and quick flip to cold are hallmarks of La Nina-eque, downstream surface climatology. Now, I wholeheartedly agree that things seem "off." We have addressed the potential for that for several months. However, I do think we are seeing climatology from the cold set of analogs in play in LR modeling. Is it right? IDK. Now to be clear, analogs help us predict weather....they don't cause weather. Analogs are utilized to see if historic weather patterns are about to reappear. There have been colder patterns during this type of ENSO/SST setup. Also true, a lot of Nina winters kind of run their course by mid January. Some winters come back later like 95-96. To me, this winter has been a tough one to figure out due to the two sets of analogs for January(one set which ended winter after December and one set which was very cold). We are approaching a fork in the road towards late December and the car(weather) hasn't taken a turn to the right or left yet. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 7 Share Posted December 7 4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Reading some other forums and seeing comments about how Nino-like the pattern is. I tend to respectfully disagree with that. The bout of extended summer and quick flip to cold are hallmarks of La Nina-eque, downstream surface climatology. Now, I wholeheartedly agree that things seem "off." We have addressed the potential for that for several months. However, I do think we are seeing climatology from the cold set of analogs in play in LR modeling. Is it right? IDK. Now to be clear, analogs help us predict weather....they don't cause weather. Analogs are utilized to see if historic weather patterns are about to reappear. There have been colder patterns during this type of ENSO/SST setup. Also true, a lot of Nina winters kind of run their course by mid January. Some winters come back later like 95-96. To me, this winter has been a tough one to figure out due to the two sets of analogs for January(one set which ended winter after December and one set which was very cold). We are approaching a fork in the road towards late December and the car(weather) hasn't taken a turn to the right or left yet. Yeah, that Pendulum I alluded to earlier. Depending on how long this upcoming warmup lasts and the cold returns and lasts I think should be pretty indicative to which way we turn ; the colder or warmer Set. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 I really like the Weeklies and Euro AI today. Been out of pocket. Looks like winter!!!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 I like the look, too, Carvers. Anomalous or not, give me amplitude, blocking, and volatility and I'll take my chances. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 1 hour ago, *Flash* said: I like the look, too, Carvers. Anomalous or not, give me amplitude, blocking, and volatility and I'll take my chances. 18z GEFS looked terrible 10-15 day. I disagree with the Run as it just looks too much a jumbled up mess. It has nearly all of Canada and the US in high heights, torch . Looks like the Heat Mizer made that run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Hmmm. RGEM supports. Would be daytime and warm/wet ground so not exactly a money maker. But maybe something fun to watch. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said: Hmmm. RGEM supports. Would be daytime and warm/wet ground so not exactly a money maker. But maybe something fun to watch. Yes sir! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 Really liking this set up for Wednesday. Could pull a quick inch or two even in the valley 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted December 8 Share Posted December 8 GFS has an interesting set up for Christmas Eve, course it is in Fantasy Land so will go poof with the next run lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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