Carvers Gap Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 2 hours ago, nrgjeff said: Yes the MJO would favor another cold shot. CFS dives it down the Plains and it fails to get east. Honestly that's pretty believable. As for next week, y'all knew I was going to rattle the severe sabre.. Can we get some severe weather? Thunder in the mountains.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Thunder in the mountains.... I noticed some strikes last week in the middle of the night on the radar app near Clinton and Knoxville. Hopefully that portends well for this evening. Sadly one on the most important indices is not looking good. The ELK index is heretofore absent. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 The Euro Weeklies continue to show a trough that really does not want to tuck into the West for more than a week - still not sure why that is, but we will take it. I think we get a ridge from say Dec16-22. It could last through the 27-28th. Then, I think we go into a back and forth pattern very similar to some of the colder La Ninas. I don't think it is a full blown cold pattern, but I would be surprised if it was a full blown warm pattern. It sort of just looks like a normal winter pattern. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 2 Share Posted December 2 This is a sample of what I am looking at. The Euro Weeklies today showed a the trough returning for the last part of December and into January. My guess is that it is a little quick with bringing the trough back after the mid Dec warm-up. However, after a back-and-forth pattern to end December and begin Jan, it drops the hammer. The first two images are the control for the first two weeks of January, and this fits with the colder Nina analogs. The last image is the CFSv2 for January. They look a lot alike. The Euro Weeklies ensemble is very similar to the control, but more smoothed. if I hadn't centered the time increments for Jan1-8 and 9-16, you would also seem some twenty below normal temps. We are approaching the coldest time of the year in January, so anything below normal works. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Very surprising dusting here. Gets me in the Christmas mood. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 The GFS is trying for the d9 storm, Plateau and west to the mid-state. Canadian is a far western ice storm with a low running west of the apps. 12+ hours of upper 20s to lower 30s in West Tennessee while Eastern areas are in the 50s. The euro is much warmer than either and it's all rain. So every model has the storm, the path is the big question. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 Two good passes by the last two (0z and 6z) GFS runs. The CMC isn't far behind. More than likely that is a mid-state cutter, but the GFS sniffs these out sometimes first. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 The 6z CFSv2 is a thing of beauty for January. That is an incredibly cold look. Now, it is guilty at times of misreading the MJO. So, proceed with caution. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 This would be on the extreme end of modeling...but it also mimics the extreme La Nina analogs. Seems like the very end of December through mid-Jan might be the window for the next cold shot. That isn't a look. If forced, I would say Jan 1-8. Then, another ridge rolls through, and then???. The pattern is much more transient than I had envisioned, but that might spare us from a torch for January. Indeed, the map below is the opposite of such. That is a 30 day map which begins with a massive warm-up. So, just imagine what it took to erase that warmup. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 3 Share Posted December 3 I know JB gets a hard time sometimes, but they have created a great maps page, and I great appreciate them for letting us share their maps. That is what is underneath the map above. And this is exactly why January is a very tough forecast. It is a true wildcard - really extreme, polar opposite analogs. In this case, just polar. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: I know JB gets a hard time sometimes, but they have created a great maps page, and I great appreciate them for letting us share their maps. That is what is underneath the map above. And this is exactly why January is a very tough forecast. It is a true wildcard - really extreme, polar opposite analogs. In this case, just polar. NSFW. I was going to report this to a moderator but saw '46 day' so we good. Those pinks are hot! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 3k NAM is trying to give another 1/2 inch to 2 inch event to the area on Wednesday night. The RGEM is sort of on board too. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Here's a very good analysis from Michael Clark, CEO of BAMWX this morning (12/4) on what he believes will happen now through January. Excellent technical analysis of what he sees ahead. He gives permission to share across all platforms. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 The 0z CMC and 6z EURO AIFS are not dissimilar....decent chance of a winter storm somewhere in the TN Valley forum. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 17 minutes ago, iluvsnow said: Here's a very good analysis from Michael Clark, CEO of BAMWX this morning (12/4) on what he believes will happen now through January. Excellent technical analysis of what he sees ahead. He gives permission to share across all platforms. That fits with the colder January analogs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 Mele Kalikimaka - Merry Christmas in Hawaiin. I'm buying into the warm pattern flip middle of December. Asian weather pattern situation is out of phase for Siberian delivery to North America. East China might get one more shot of cold. However the forecast troughing in the GOA is pretty bearish for North America. 3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 That was pretty close to a special run by the 12z GFS. The CMS is close. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 I think there is a chance that we are gonna be tracking a pretty big storm around the 11-12th. Modeling was west yesterday. The Canadian and GFS are well east of that today. Even the ICON has it to some extent. I don't have a clear idea on where it will be, but it could be significant. SLP or wave riding a cold front. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: SLP or wave riding a cold front. We seem to do pretty well with these during Decembers lately. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 33 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: We seem to do pretty well with these during Decembers lately. Yep. Just has the hallmarks of some bigger winter storms. Cold air incoming. Trending towards the coast. It could end up being a coastal and no impact here, but tough to know right now. Euro is more of a coastal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 I don't know if the Euro is handling the MJO well or not....but it really doesn't want to warm things up on the 12z run. Weeklies are rolling right now...updated in a minute. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 The Euro weeklies now support the control from yesterday that I shared for early to mid Jan. Very rare to see that ensemble that cold for week 6. Could be very wrong, but usually it has a warm bias. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: The Euro weeklies now support the control from yesterday that I shared for early to mid Jan. Very rare to see that ensemble that cold for week 6. Could be very wrong, but usually it has a warm bias. I certainly hope we do not end up cold and dry, that is the worst! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 The 18z GFS is a really, really good run for the dec11-12 storm. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted December 4 Share Posted December 4 16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GFS is a really, really good run for the dec11-12 storm. Good run for middle and east parts of state good that GFS is coming around 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 Wow that's the same system I thought I'd jinxed, when it cut at the Mid-South. In the last two days we've gone from severe, to blah rain, to possible winter precip. Not bad! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 The Euro Weeklies ensemble looks good after Dec 23rd. The control is the opposite. Ensemble looks very good. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 42 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The Euro Weeklies ensemble looks good after Dec 23rd. The control is the opposite. Ensemble looks very good. Tbh, probably a pretty close call either way. The Pendulum could swing one way or the other. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 The GFS is back on with the winter storm. Hopefully we can lock in to a stable and winter weather solution. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 5 Share Posted December 5 49 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Tbh, probably a pretty close call either way. The Pendulum could swing one way or the other. I think we are going to see that trough to to setup in the Mountain West. For whatever reason, I am slowly coming around to the idea that we are going to have more cold here than my original winter forecast/ideas. January has been wild card in my mind. At this point, it looks like we are going to see part of January turn out cold which is a win in my book. Hope your time with your family is goin as well as it can! The 18z GFS, as John notes, is back in the snow column for the 11-12th. I continue to like that setup around that time frame. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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