Carvers Gap Posted Saturday at 01:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:48 PM I think we need to keep an eye on the storm window shown on the GFS during the past several runs, and that is the one which Jeff mentioned. It looks formidable. It could cut per the Euro, or it could be a slider and a Miller A. All options are on the table including snow for southern parts of our forum area. Remember when I talked about January being kind of an unknown wildcard in regards this winter. LR ext modeling (weeklies) looks pretty chilly for the part of January which is shown(first week or two). The CFSv2 was very cold on this morning's run for January. The can 100% be wrong at this range, but it is worth noting. That would be a very cold pattern during our climatologically coldest part of the year. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Saturday at 04:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:04 PM 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: I think we need to keep an eye on the storm window shown on the GFS during the past several runs, and that is the one which Jeff mentioned. It looks formidable. It could cut per the Euro, or it could be a slider and a Miller A. All options are on the table including snow for southern parts of our forum area. Remember when I talked about January being kind of an unknown wildcard in regards this winter. LR ext modeling (weeklies) looks pretty chilly for the part of January which is shown(first week or two). The CFSv2 was very cold on this morning's run for January. The can 100% be wrong at this range, but it is worth noting. That would be a very cold pattern during our climatologically coldest part of the year. Us weenies will implode in the SE thread if it’s another cutter lol. Rooting for a slider special where we all win. Happy tracking time TV folks . Hope yall don’t mind me peering in every now and then. I think this is the best group on the forum. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Saturday at 07:25 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:25 PM It'll probably cut. I should have known a Met posting jinxes it every time! In more serious topics @Daniel Boone I'm sorry for your loss, especially wife and immediate family. As for weather, we probably need to get some work done before the pattern flips warm mid-Dec. I like chances north of I-40 for two or three little events. I have no idea about the big pattern changer. Still second week, so I guess there is no reason to celebrate or lament model runs. Manic Panic Meter can be engaged in about a week, ha! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Saturday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:54 PM 22 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: It'll probably cut. I should have known a Met posting jinxes it every time! In more serious topics @Daniel Boone I'm sorry for your loss, especially wife and immediate family. As for weather, we probably need to get some work done before the pattern flips warm mid-Dec. I like chances north of I-40 for two or three little events. I have no idea about the big pattern changer. Still second week, so I guess there is no reason to celebrate or lament model runs. Manic Panic Meter can be engaged in about a week, ha! Thanks Brother ! I agree with everything you're saying man. As soon as I saw the GFS follow the Euro and they then show a viable way that thing can cut, without strong upstream blocking that's the usual path . I'm still thinking back and forth this Winter but, probably not alot of Snow. I was along the lines of a high probability of mildest Winter in Record but, the slow strengthening Nina and somewhat eastward progression plus the subtle changes in PDO and Atlantic SST'S around Nova Scotia made me back off that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Saturday at 09:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:53 PM 2 hours ago, nrgjeff said: It'll probably cut. I should have known a Met posting jinxes it every time! In more serious topics @Daniel Boone I'm sorry for your loss, especially wife and immediate family. As for weather, we probably need to get some work done before the pattern flips warm mid-Dec. I like chances north of I-40 for two or three little events. I have no idea about the big pattern changer. Still second week, so I guess there is no reason to celebrate or lament model runs. Manic Panic Meter can be engaged in about a week, ha! Nah, man. You don’t jinx stuff. We are always at risk of cutters, especially this time of year. I like the aggressiveness. You are one of us with that type of call. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Saturday at 11:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:10 PM Euro Weeklies look good. The warmup is temporary and trough returns eastward. We’ll see if that is right, but I suspect it is... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Saturday at 11:44 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:44 PM Sorry for your loss Dan. NAM is getting pretty enthused about the next clipper early next week. The current one seems to be slightly outperforming wrt precip on the southern edge. I was wondering how it might verify. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Saturday at 11:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 11:58 PM Getting flakes here. That's three times in November. Pretty decent considering we were +9 before today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Sunday at 12:19 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:19 AM 20 minutes ago, John1122 said: Getting flakes here. That's three times in November. Pretty decent considering we were +9 before today. Can't be. You're in the no snow zone KMRX has for tonight, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Sunday at 12:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:23 AM 35 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Sorry for your loss Dan. NAM is getting pretty enthused about the next clipper early next week. The current one seems to be slightly outperforming wrt precip on the southern edge. I was wondering how it might verify. Thanks brother. Yeah, apparently Models underestimated RH Southern boundary or the trajectory some. A tad further South is a big deal when 15 statute you go from up to an inch to nothing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Sunday at 12:33 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:33 AM 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Euro Weeklies look good. The warmup is temporary and trough returns eastward. We’ll see if that is right, but I suspect it is... Let's hope so. Webb's not as confident today as yesterday I noticed. Today's sudden Model changes I think got him a bit. Negative asian mountain torque. As far as myself, I still think back and forth type Winter but, am a bit concerned over Snowfall as it doesn't appear the +TNH Pattern will provide a deep enough Trough to help with low road development. I could be wrong as it'll be close during Time's of +TNH Patterns. Could be the MJO will make it to cold phases with enough amp to raise the odds at the right time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 01:18 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:18 AM 37 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Let's hope so. Webb's not as confident today as yesterday I noticed. Today's sudden Model changes I think got him a bit. Negative asian mountain torque. As far as myself, I still think back and forth type Winter but, am a bit concerned over Snowfall as it doesn't appear the +TNH Pattern will provide a deep enough Trough to help with low road development. I could be wrong as it'll be close during Time's of +TNH Patterns. Could be the MJO will make it to cold phases with enough amp to raise the odds at the right time. Webb IMHO often kind of goes with the flow. He severely missed last winter’s cold around Christmas if I remember correctly, almost taunting people with tweets. January is a massive wild card in analogs IMHO. Mark Reynolds noted it. The analogs I looked at had the two polar-opposite families of analogs. Right now, it “appears” the colder variety might have the edge. I am pretty uncomplicated in the long range while depending on on ENSO, PDO, analogs, and weeklies’ modeling. I really don’t know much other than doing some minimal research. I don’t look at mountain torque and TNH like I should. I “think” that EPO ridge really wants to be negative for reasons I don’t completely understand. So far, this winter fits climatology. Cold or warm, January also fits analog packages. I haven’t really changed my thoughts on that. This winter just seems like it has some post Jan 1 cold shots in play. Some weak La Niña winters have been predominantly warm until cold shots hit. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted Sunday at 02:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:26 PM 13 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Let's hope so. Webb's not as confident today as yesterday I noticed. Today's sudden Model changes I think got him a bit. Negative asian mountain torque. As far as myself, I still think back and forth type Winter but, am a bit concerned over Snowfall as it doesn't appear the +TNH Pattern will provide a deep enough Trough to help with low road development. I could be wrong as it'll be close during Time's of +TNH Patterns. Could be the MJO will make it to cold phases with enough amp to raise the odds at the right time. Negative asian mountain torque. Good Lord, we are a bunch of geeks/nerds. I love it! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted Sunday at 02:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 02:42 PM Btw, Happy First Day of Met Winter, ya'll. Whatever happens in the months to come, at least it feels the part coming out of the gate. On a side note, I have a holiday break coming up December 20-January 2. My wife asked me if there was any potential for a white Christmas year. I told her while I lack a crystal ball, the pattern could promote some chances in the OH/TN valley, especially during the first few weeks. In response, she said the fam would be on standby to go snowchasing as needed. Inside I was like...so that's where some of the hotness went from last month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Sunday at 03:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:04 PM 13 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Webb IMHO often kind of goes with the flow. He severely missed last winter’s cold around Christmas if I remember correctly, almost taunting people with tweets. January is a massive wild card in analogs IMHO. Mark Reynolds noted it. The analogs I looked at had the two polar-opposite families of analogs. Right now, it “appears” the colder variety might have the edge. I am pretty uncomplicated in the long range while depending on on ENSO, PDO, analogs, and weeklies’ modeling. I really don’t know much other than doing some minimal research. I don’t look at mountain torque and TNH like I should. I “think” that EPO ridge really wants to be negative for reasons I don’t completely understand. So far, this winter fits climatology. Cold or warm, January also fits analog packages. I haven’t really changed my thoughts on that. This winter just seems like it has some post Jan 1 cold shots in play. Some weak La Niña winters have been predominantly warm until cold shots hit. Excellent post Buddy ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Sunday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Sunday at 03:06 PM 39 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Negative asian mountain torque. Good Lord, we are a bunch of geeks/nerds. I love it! I left east out ,lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Sunday at 05:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:54 PM 2 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: I left east out ,lol But the Euro is showing this breaking down into the 2nd week of Dec,right now anyways 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:17 PM 22 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: But the Euro is showing this breaking down into the 2nd week of Dec,right now anyways Cold shots IMHO tend to las 2-3 weeks if we are lucky, even during good years. Modeling definitely shows a break just after mid-month to just before New Years. Then, it gets sketchy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Sunday at 09:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:42 PM I was hoping for a cold Christmas but the good PNA is getting broke down in which the long range models are showing and the GWO is showing signs going back to negative,if this was severe season i'd be getting excited,also the stout SPV via the Euro is getting displaced towards Greenland ,you dont want to see this,i was wishing for a cold Christmas but each day that passes it get more and more depressing, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted Sunday at 10:16 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:16 PM 21 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Let's hope so. Webb's not as confident today as yesterday I noticed. Today's sudden Model changes I think got him a bit. Negative asian mountain torque. As far as myself, I still think back and forth type Winter but, am a bit concerned over Snowfall as it doesn't appear the +TNH Pattern will provide a deep enough Trough to help with low road development. I could be wrong as it'll be close during Time's of +TNH Patterns. Could be the MJO will make it to cold phases with enough amp to raise the odds at the right time. He sounds moderately confident that the mid-month pattern change is more of a reload. We'll see. Either way, January is looking quite mysterious at the moment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:17 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:17 PM The Euro Weeklies LR ext run today was decent. I thought after this morning's run, it would be lousy. Nope. Good run. Warm air displaces the cold for a couple 7-12 days starting in mid Dec, then the trough builds back into NA. West of the Apps...not a bad look. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Sunday at 10:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:31 PM 12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The Euro Weeklies LR ext run today was decent. I thought after this morning's run, it would be lousy. Nope. Good run. Warm air displaces the cold for a couple 7-12 days starting in mid Dec, then the trough builds back into NA. West of the Apps...not a bad look. That would go along with Webb's earlier thoughts and also with the MJO progression probably. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 10:39 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:39 PM I tend to agree w/ Burg's assessment. I am not seeing the same signs of a long term torch. There are some elements in the LR for sure, but there are probably more elements of the trough returning after 7-10 days of warmth at the most. I can't get Twitter inserted into this post(if anyone knows how....speak up!). HIs thoughts are similar to mine. Here is the link. https://x.com/burgwx/status/1863223397200601198 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Sunday at 11:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:08 PM This is the Weeklies run from today in seven day increments....Looks like the ridge has a shelf life of 7-12 days. Then, we see the pattern reload. The tendency is to place the coldest air over the Mountain West, but our forum area is still chilly at the surface. That leads me to think cold slides from Montana into our area while fighting a SER of uncertain strength. It looks like a weak La Nina pattern....there is room for cold to spill eastward. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 12:08 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:08 AM If u look at the pattern above. We are projected to be at in a bit of a retrograding pattern. That means “upstream” is to our east in simplistic terms. On that last slide above, see everything work backwards...and the next trough is loaded on the last slide in the North Atlantic. We have seen retrograding patterns during many recent Niña winters. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted Monday at 01:15 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:15 AM 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: This is the Weeklies run from today in seven day increments....Looks like the ridge has a shelf life of 7-12 days. Then, we see the pattern reload. The tendency is to place the coldest air over the Mountain West, but our forum area is still chilly at the surface. That leads me to think cold slides from Montana into our area while fighting a SER of uncertain strength. It looks like a weak La Nina pattern....there is room for cold to spill eastward. Yeah, if that sequence comes to fruition we should be in decent shape. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 01:28 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:28 AM Some LE snow for the Buffalo vs SF game if you need some mood flakes. They are under a decent band. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 01:31 AM Share Posted Monday at 01:31 AM 15 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah, if that sequence comes to fruition we should be in decent shape. I think we will have chances. I have seen a lot worse on LR modeling in the past. Even transient cold during Jan can score here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Monday at 02:48 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:48 AM 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: If u look at the pattern above. We are projected to be at in a bit of a retrograding pattern. That means “upstream” is to our east in simplistic terms. On that last slide above, see everything work backwards...and the next trough is loaded on the last slide in the North Atlantic. We have seen retrograding patterns during many recent Niña winters. Yeah,it still bothersome to get the PNA broke down or the cold is going to our west But there is more spread today with the Euro ensembles,this could be also from a KW moving around the IDL right now could be causing destructive interference with the MJO signal,dunno 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Monday at 03:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:26 PM Yes the MJO would favor another cold shot. CFS dives it down the Plains and it fails to get east. Honestly that's pretty believable. As for next week, y'all knew I was going to rattle the severe sabre.. Can we get some severe weather? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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