Carvers Gap Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 The 12z GFS is cooking something up around 180. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Happy Thanksgiving! Models have a Miller A the second Thursday of December, so day 14-15. I'm normally not interested in something beyond Day 7. However a big system would fit the conceptual model ending the cold weather pattern. Get a big snow; then, turn mild. Oh yeah thunder the following week. Can I get snow and severe in December? For now, everyone have a blessed Thanksgiving. We have sports, food and family teed up! 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 6 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Happy Thanksgiving! Models have a Miller A the second Thursday of December, so day 14-15. I'm normally not interested in something beyond Day 7. However a big system would fit the conceptual model ending the cold weather pattern. Get a big snow; then, turn mild. Oh yeah thunder the following week. Can I get snow and severe in December? For now, everyone have a blessed Thanksgiving. We have sports, food and family teed up! Archambault Theory ftw ! Happy Thanksgiving Brother ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z GFS is cooking something up around 180. Yeah, looks like maybe a lt event Saturday Evening but, probably no more than a dusting to maybe an inch in spots. Another maybe mid week and the one you mentioned a bit bigger. Jeff is right about a possible big one at end of Pattern. That is a commin occurrence known as the Archambault Theory as most in here know about I think. I suspect this will be a back and forth Winter now so, may end up an Average Winter overall for a change. If there's more blocking that manifests against the grain then probably below average T's above Snow. Happy Thanksgiving Everyone ! May God bless you all. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 28 Share Posted November 28 Lots of volatility moving forward. A colder pattern looks in place through just before Christmas, then it warms, and then????? I think we see a fairly quick return to cold during January. I don't know that the base pattern for winter has show itself. Weak La Nina winters tend to have some warm interludes with very sharp cold shots. If those cold shots time with precip, we could be in business during portions of Jan and early Feb. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Happy Thanksgiving to everyone! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Ok, who is posting the map?! 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 What Carvers is referring to. The GFS came out with a colorful Friday map instead of a black Friday map. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 I don't know how I feel of dusting chances showing up on the gulf coast, always makes me nervous... but, maybe we can reel one in. Ill take GFS p25 for $200 Alex Happy (late) Thanksgiving! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 The Euro LR ex(weeklies) is having a surprisingly difficult time sticking and holding the trough out West. The pattern breaks down after just a few days when it tries later in December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 This kind of has the feel of a winter which "should" put the trough in the Mountain West, but for whatever reason, is going to have a really difficult time doing so. Looks for the East something like a flip-flopping (ridge/trough) pattern might be the base, but I am not ready to commit to that yet. It certainly has that look on the Weeklies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 If Webbs right it'll do like Weeklies is showing. I know the warm November tool John uses generally is a good rule if Thumb but, not 100% guarantee as a few Odd out Year's and according to Webb this one has the makings of one of those. The ABNA Setup, Mongolian HP , +QBO and IOD along with a weak somewhat east based Nina may help force the typical Aleutian HP further east and poleward. It is also possible, if not probable, wave lengths changed later this Fall than usual due to CC or whatever therefore sending the November Correlation further in time. May sound a bit strange but, not out of the realm of possibility. Just some food for thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 1 hour ago, Knoxtron said: I don't know how I feel of dusting chances showing up on the gulf coast, always makes me nervous... but, maybe we can reel one in. Ill take GFS p25 for $200 Alex Happy (late) Thanksgiving! That one is pretty for the whole area. Would be nice ! The Average paints the bullseye to our North across the lower Ohio Valley. Hopefully the Trough hangs a bit further South. I think that's the better odds we have to get the real Action. PJET dominated Pattern. I am headed to just North of Winchester Va now so, may see a bit of clipper action while up here through the Week. Sadly, won't be very enjoyable as my Wife's Dad passed . That's reason for Trip. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said: That one is pretty for the whole area. Would be nice ! The Average paints the bullseye to our North across the lower Ohio Valley. Hopefully the Trough hangs a bit further South. I think that's the better odds we have to get the real Action. PJET dominated Pattern. I am headed to just North of Winchester Va now so, may see a bit of clipper action while up here through the Week. Sadly, won't be very enjoyable as my Wife's Dad passed . That's reason for Trip. My condolences. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Just now, Terpeast said: My condolences. Thank you brother ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 Another major winter storm later in the GFS run. Ice to rain to heavy snow imby. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 29 Share Posted November 29 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1862645450760671457?t=bmriljybaTSwcBbBT9sFLw&s=19 Explains what I was referring to above to a degree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Should of posted this, then you all could see the rest wihin the replies he posted. https://x.com/webberweather/status/1862643196632727822?t=jw1eDVzvhzuarys_0b-Abw&s=19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: That one is pretty for the whole area. Would be nice ! The Average paints the bullseye to our North across the lower Ohio Valley. Hopefully the Trough hangs a bit further South. I think that's the better odds we have to get the real Action. PJET dominated Pattern. I am headed to just North of Winchester Va now so, may see a bit of clipper action while up here through the Week. Sadly, won't be very enjoyable as my Wife's Dad passed . That's reason for Trip. Sorry to hear that. Peace & strength to you all during this difficult time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Just now, Matthew70 said: Sorry to hear that. Peace & strength to you all during this difficult time. Thank you brother ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Definitely condolences to the Daniel Boone family. Hang in there, ya’ll. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 The 18z GFS continues to honk. Good looking run. We take the location of those storms and roll the dice 10/10x. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: That one is pretty for the whole area. Would be nice ! The Average paints the bullseye to our North across the lower Ohio Valley. Hopefully the Trough hangs a bit further South. I think that's the better odds we have to get the real Action. PJET dominated Pattern. I am headed to just North of Winchester Va now so, may see a bit of clipper action while up here through the Week. Sadly, won't be very enjoyable as my Wife's Dad passed . That's reason for Trip. I’m so sorry to hear that DB! Praying for you and your family! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 51 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Definitely condolences to the Daniel Boone family. Hang in there, ya’ll. Thanks brother ! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 2 minutes ago, Jed33 said: I’m so sorry to hear that DB! Praying for you and your family! Thanks brother! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 3 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: That one is pretty for the whole area. Would be nice ! The Average paints the bullseye to our North across the lower Ohio Valley. Hopefully the Trough hangs a bit further South. I think that's the better odds we have to get the real Action. PJET dominated Pattern. I am headed to just North of Winchester Va now so, may see a bit of clipper action while up here through the Week. Sadly, won't be very enjoyable as my Wife's Dad passed . That's reason for Trip. I've got an uncle who's 90 and in hospice, going into his final days. He looks just like my grandfather(his dad) who got me hooked on weather. It's tough getting older, in that we lose so many folks we thought were giants growing up. Condolences to you and your wife. Have a safe trip. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 59 minutes ago, John1122 said: I've got an uncle who's 90 and in hospice, going into his final days. He looks just like my grandfather(his dad) who got me hooked on weather. It's tough getting older, in that we lose so many folks we thought were giants growing up. Condolences to you and your wife. Have a safe trip. Thanks brother. Sorry to hear of your Uncle . A special one at that . It is tough. I lost a close friend about a week ago due to Cancer. We are here now. It's near Charles town and Harper's Ferry,WV. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuCoVaWx Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 Sorry to hear about your loss. Thoughts, prayers and safe travels for you bud. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 1 hour ago, BuCoVaWx said: Sorry to hear about your loss. Thoughts, prayers and safe travels for you bud. Thank you buddy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 30 Share Posted November 30 The 6z GFS was the best run of the year. Just now commenting on it...cause 8 OTs just about did me in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now