2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Again, that is only representative of the surface and not the OHC which is what really matters. We have seen a very windy NH winter which had the effect of turning over the surface. It’s not like the year over year temp dropped because the overhead temps were much colder then normal. Increased winds are well predicted by climate change models and are reason for counterintuitive storm number forecasts.

 
Thanks. The same website has OHC for the same region although it updates more slowly. I’ll be following this very closely also. This is the corresponding OHC for the same area as of April 16 as opposed to April 27. It shows that the OHC has also fallen a lot since one year ago, when it was way up at the 2013-24 average for late June! It was on 4/16/25 down to near the 2013-24 average for 4/16 although it actually was a bit warmer than 2023, which was within just days of rising rapidly and reaching then new daily record highs that would go all of the way into June of 2024:
 

 

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/ohc_east.png

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Your link doesn’t show anything. But check the image below out:
 

 The image below is the SST for each year 1982-2025 for the tropical Atlantic 10-20N, 20-60W. The black line is the 1991-2020 average, the red is 2023, orange is 2024, and blue is 2025 to date. Note how much cooler it is as of 4/27/2025 (near the 1991-2020 average) vs both 4/27/2023 and 4/27/2024!

 

https://kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/tropATLsst.png

It will warm up soon btw 

 

“it will be below average/average!” 

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 
Thanks. The same website has OHC for the same region although it updates more slowly. I’ll be following this very closely also. This is the corresponding OHC for the same area as of April 16 as opposed to April 27. It shows that the OHC has also fallen a lot since one year ago, when it was way up at the 2013-24 average for late June! It was on 4/16/25 down to near the 2013-24 average for 4/16 although it actually was a bit warmer than 2023, which was within just days of rising rapidly and reaching then new daily record highs that would go all of the way into June of 2024:
 

 

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/ohc_east.png

Lmao not only the east Atlantic matters. Stop jumping to conclusions 

it will be above average at least

[BarryStantonGBP]

“From today's trip to the weather twitters. Deep tropic suppression because of warm sub-tropics would seem, to me, to decrease risk of a major landfall in the Caribbean and Central/North America.”

LMAO no whoever said this

keep getting your hopes up

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Lmao not only the east Atlantic matters. Stop jumping to conclusions 

it will be above average at least

-I’m not concluding/predicting where the OHC will be come hurricane season. I’m just showing how it looks as of April 16th vs other years.

-I’m showing the area east of the Caribbean because it was so incredibly warm last year and has cooled so much since then as JB has been emphasizing recently almost every day.

-Indeed, the Caribbean and Gulf are also very important regarding OHC. They’ve also cooled though not as dramatically. The subtropics are also important though this section doesn’t have OHC for it as it is a tropical waters section.

Cheers

[jconsor]

10 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

8 hurricanes, 4 majors expected, and a landfall-heavy year

Agreed more with these lot than most of the mainstream

https://www.spglobal.com/esg/insights/featured/special-editorial/an-elevated-2025-hurricane-season

Thanks for posting the S&P outlook, Barry.  Very interesting! One of the few *data-driven* (not totally qualitative) landfall risk outlooks I have seen.

Their maps seem to suggest higher than usual activity in the central Atlantic portion of the MDR (around 40-60W) and the Bahamas area (off FL coast) as well as the Caribbean and GOM.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, jconsor said:

Thanks for posting the S&P outlook, Barry.  Very interesting! One of the few *data-driven* (not totally qualitative) landfall risk outlooks I have seen.

Their maps seem to suggest higher than usual activity in the central Atlantic portion of the MDR (around 40-60W) and the Bahamas area (off FL coast) as well as the Caribbean and GOM.

Yaakov,

 Fwiw, the data driven April 2025 Euro forecast for 2025 has just a near normal CONUS risk vs an enhanced risk in the April of 2024 forecast for 2024:

This was April of 2024: look at all of that red concentrated along the US coasts/in Gulf:

 

Here’s April of 2025: no red…just mainly near normal (yellow):

 

 The Euro might be a bit underdone with just a near normal US risk, but the point is that the model clearly shows a significantly lower risk than it showed last year. And last year was a very bad year for the US in the Gulf/SE. I was personally heavily impacted by both Debby (flooding rains getting into my garage) and Helene (high winds leading to a multi-day power outage (longest since David of 45 years earlier) leading to loss of refrigerated/frozen food and miserable inside conditions), but this was nothing compared to what happened further west in GA, NW SC, and especially NC from Helene as well as the severe impacts on FL from Helene and Milton. So, it not being nearly as bad this year wouldn’t be difficult.

 It will be interesting to see whether the May Euro outlook for 2025 is similar to April’s.