BarryStantonGBP Posted April 1 Author Share Posted April 1 a bit too low on the numbers https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2025/04/01/2025atloutlookapr/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 ENSO subsurface continues to be cold in the central region, which at the very least favors ENSO Neutral this season. Last year I did research on the trend regarding different Hurricane season factors. Here's how ENSO subsurface has been leading surface events: Here's my post from last year which is a 1 year old, but you can still see the long term trends.. I think we had 18 Named Storms last year, 11 Hurricanes. In 1995, the AMO (Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) index switched to positive, and since then it's been rising/still hasn't peaked. Atlantic Hurricane season activity is strongly correlated to the AMO, and Atlantic Hurricane season activity has also been in an upward incline since the 1995 AMO switch. Here is a smoothed graph of number of Tropical Storms by year: Since 1995, we have averaged the following number of storms per year in various ENSO states: El Nino (8 years): 12.5 TS, 5.4 Hurr, 2.5 MH Neutral (10 years): 16.4 TS, 8.2 Hurr, 3.8 MH La Nina (10 years): 17.9 TS, 9.2 Hurr, 4.2 MH In September 2022, the AMO peaked at an all time high of +0.662, and is still rising/in an inclining phase. I plotted monthly AMO numbers, up until the CPC last updated the dataset, which was January 2023: If you smooth out the index, it looks like a very clear rising phase is still underway: Since those AMO graphs, we had record +AMO last Summer, now it's cooled down to be cooler than the last 2 seasons, but still above the 30-year average. We are still on the general AMO trends. The Atlantic activity has been especially strong lately: - 4 of the last 5 years have had 18+ Named Storms - The average in the last 5 years is 20.5 Named Storms/year - 8 of the last 9 years have had 7+ Hurricanes - The average is 8.7 Hurricanes/year for the last 9 years With ENSO Neutral and slightly warm Atlantic SSTs, I'd put the over/under on this season at ~16 Named Storms, just based on long term trends. Remember, the rest of the globe has not been nearly as active as the Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 2 Share Posted April 2 On 4/1/2025 at 12:09 PM, BarryStantonGBP said: a bit too low on the numbers https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2025/04/01/2025atloutlookapr/ 13-17 isn't low.. the long term average for 100 years was 9 Named Storms/year.. and with the activity over the last 30 years, it has increased to 10 Named Storms/year. I'd say a wild card is if the NAO goes positive this Summer.. we are at a Solar max and it has +0.2 correlation with +NAO. +NAO keeps high pressure across the basin, leading to less activity. Last year there was a clear difference when the NAO was positive vs negative.. It was the least active in parts of Aug-Sept period since 1993 when the NAO was positive, then when it switched to negative late season we had all those strong storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted April 3 Author Share Posted April 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 CSU's numbers were way high last year.. I think they were going with a near record season. I think Gawx has researched it, and come to the conclusion that they have an over-active bias on seasonal forecasts, based on several years of putting out forecasts. I don't think 17NS, 9 Hurricanes is that far off the progression average though.. 8 of the last 9 years have had 7+ Hurricanes. 4 of the last 5 years have had 18+ Named Storms. We had a quiet period mid-season last year that may signal a turn to less active conditions though. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted April 3 Author Share Posted April 3 16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: CSU's numbers were way high last year.. I think they were going with a near record season. I think Gawx has researched it, and come to the conclusion that they have an over-active bias on seasonal forecasts, based on several years of putting out forecasts. I don't think 17NS, 9 Hurricanes is that far off the progression average though.. 8 of the last 9 years have had 7+ Hurricanes. 4 of the last 5 years have had 18+ Named Storms. We had a quiet period mid-season last year that may signal a turn to less active conditions though. underestimating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 What's your prediction, Barry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 58 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: CSU's numbers were way high last year.. I think they were going with a near record season. I think Gawx has researched it, and come to the conclusion that they have an over-active bias on seasonal forecasts, based on several years of putting out forecasts. I don't think 17NS, 9 Hurricanes is that far off the progression average though.. 8 of the last 9 years have had 7+ Hurricanes. 4 of the last 5 years have had 18+ Named Storms. We had a quiet period mid-season last year that may signal a turn to less active conditions though. Thank you, Chuck. I did conclude that CSU has had an overactive bias in April though only when it had a very active forecast. This is a link to what I posted on 4/7/24, which addressed that: Here’s how 2024 actual ended up vs CSU’s extremely active April prediction. Indeed, they once again came in too active in most though not all categories: NS: 23 (too high by 5) NS days: 115 (too high by 38) H: 11 (perfect) H days: 45 (too high by 7.5) MH: 5 (perfect) MH days: 13 (too high by 1.5) ACE: 210 (too high by 48) This year’s April predictions are for a still active season but not nearly as active as they were calling for last April: NS: 17 vs 23 NS days: 85 vs 115 H: 9 vs 11 H days: 35 vs 45 MH: 4 vs 5 MH days: 9 vs 13 ACE: 155 vs 210 So, these are significantly lower than last April and thus seem quite reasonable as Chuck implied. So, unlike last year, I don’t feel comfy saying that the April CSU #s have a good chance to come in too high. Actually, I’m not predicting either way right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted April 4 Author Share Posted April 4 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: What's your prediction, Barry? 17-10-5/180 ACE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 Here's the SSTA change year-to-year, shows where it is compared to last year at this time: That cool water near Africa actually has a correlation of spreading west for the season. Here was my post on opposite conditions last year: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted April 7 Author Share Posted April 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Latest SSTA.. cold water off of Africa, warm Gulf of Mexico. Nino 1+2 warm, Nino 3/4 cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted April 8 Author Share Posted April 8 Weather 20/20: 20-12-5, 180 ACE They are the most accurate with spring forecasts, even more so than CSU (they're fair) and the TSR (they have low balled again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted April 8 Author Share Posted April 8 They're FAR more accurate than CSU and the big dogs, I'd take this forecast pretty seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted April 8 Author Share Posted April 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 1948-2022, we had 12 named storms or less for all Moderate+ El Nino's. Then in 2023, we had 20 Named storms during a Strong El Nino! The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth-most active Atlantic hurricane season on record with 20 named storms forming, tied with 1933. It was a Strong El Nino. That indicated a general increase in Atlantic storm probability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted April 8 Author Share Posted April 8 28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 1948-2022, we had 12 named storms or less for all Moderate+ El Nino's. Then in 2023, we had 20 Named storms during a Strong El Nino! The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth-most active Atlantic hurricane season on record with 20 named storms forming, tied with 1933. It was a Strong El Nino. That indicated a general increase in Atlantic storm probability. what do you think of weather 20 20's forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 9 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: what do you think of weather 20 20's forecast I think they are kind of aggressive.. the east coast Carolina's-north has not been hit with a big storm for a while, besides what has made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico, and they have 1-3 impacting systems there, and 0-2 in the Northeast. It just goes against what we have seen since the year 2000, where there is a like a 20% probability rate or less of the East Coast getting hit from an Atlantic Hurricane year-to-year. I think Sandy was the last major one to impact the East Coast.. I think as long as we don't go into an El Nino, the projected numbers will be pretty high.. SSTs are warming in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean nicely, but 20 Named Storms might be a little high.. you need a lot of things to go right for that to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted April 8 Author Share Posted April 8 9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think they are kind of aggressive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted April 8 Author Share Posted April 8 10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I think they are kind of aggressive.. the east coast Carolina's-north has not been hit with a big storm for a while, besides what has made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico, and they have 1-3 impacting systems there, and 0-2 in the Northeast. It just goes against what we have seen since the year 2000, where there is a like a 20% probability rate or less of the East Coast getting hit from an Atlantic Hurricane year-to-year. I think Sandy was the last major one to impact the East Coast.. I think as long as we don't go into an El Nino, the projected numbers will be pretty high.. SSTs are warming in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean nicely, but 20 Named Storms might be a little high.. you need a lot of things to go right for that to verify. to add: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Interesting.. I don't think it's impossible to see 20 storms.. the 3 year trend is an increasing one. Last October we had a period of activity that rivals some of the most active periods on record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted April 8 Author Share Posted April 8 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Interesting.. I don't think it's impossible to see 20 storms.. the 3 year trend is an increasing one. Last October we had a period of activity that rivals some of the most active periods on record. they predicted the 2024 and 2023 seasons the same way they were the only company to predict a lower number of NS for 2024 and higher for 2023 I'd seriously consider them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Retrobuc Posted April 9 Share Posted April 9 On 4/8/2025 at 8:54 AM, BarryStantonGBP said: they predicted the 2024 and 2023 seasons the same way they were the only company to predict a lower number of NS for 2024 and higher for 2023 I'd seriously consider them Do you get paid by them? Just curious since you are pushing them so hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted April 9 Author Share Posted April 9 47 minutes ago, Retrobuc said: Do you get paid by them? Just curious since you are pushing them so hard no but they have been more accurate than mainstream forecasters for the past few years they were the only company to predict no more than 18 named storms last year, and that manifested secondly, they make a great point about LRC cycles, which totally makes sense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted April 9 Author Share Posted April 9 another underselling mainstream forecaster numbers seem too low (maximum 19-9-3/150 ACE, minimum 15-7-2/120 ACE) https://www.cfact.org/2025/04/09/hurricane-forecast-update/ no 2017 analog no 2021 analog therefore, UNDERSHOOT, next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1910312398046581087 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1910304688911626579 C3S seasonal model... not sure how it did last year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted April 10 Author Share Posted April 10 3 hours ago, yoda said: https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1910312398046581087 https://x.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1910304688911626579 C3S seasonal model... not sure how it did last year I put my trust in the LRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 On 4/9/2025 at 1:33 PM, BarryStantonGBP said: another underselling mainstream forecaster You have to understand the long term average is not hyperactive like we have seen for the last few years No La Nina.. check No record warm SSTs.. check. That's why a lot of forecasts are average per the post-1995 averages. I want to see if the NAO blows up positive again this season, because last year it seemed to be connected to the Solar Max.. but since October it hasn't been as extreme +. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Since @yoda summoned me I guess I’ll leave a couple cents here. While I do think solidly active is on the table, I’m still tempted to lean slightly above. 1) We don’t see anywhere near the expanse/depth of ++SST/OHC anomalies in the tropical Atlantic as we have in recent years. 2) While cool neutral ENSO is probably most likely, I think there’s still a little uncertainty with that. 3) The SST anomaly distribution in the tropical Atlantic could lend itself to more stability issues, which has been a dominant feature this decade. With a cool neutral ENSO it’s probably not a huge deal if we’re looking at a 17-20 NS season, but it’s something to respect. If I were to guess right now, I’d say it’s a homebrew type year with systems struggling again in the deep Atlantic but finding far more favorable conditions west, and perhaps a more muted season in activity across the board until we get to September. Major caveat being we’re only now coming out of the seasonal temperature nadir so let’s see if things are running hot mid May. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You have to understand the long term average is not hyperactive like we have seen for the last few years No La Nina.. check No record warm SSTs.. check. That's why a lot of forecasts are average per the post-1995 averages. I want to see if the NAO blows up positive again this season, because last year it seemed to be connected to the Solar Max.. but since October it hasn't been as extreme +. Mainstream forecasters have been heavily relying on this same method. They don’t get it right often. I’ve stoped putting trust in them 2017 had the same thing 2017 v2 is on the table. I don’t care how much the mainstream barks. They’re too afraid to admit the SSTs, everything so fr has mirrored 2017 and 2021 to a lesser degree what do they do? Bark about 2012 which is a pathetic analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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