2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Again, that is only representative of the surface and not the OHC which is what really matters. We have seen a very windy NH winter which had the effect of turning over the surface. It’s not like the year over year temp dropped because the overhead temps were much colder then normal. Increased winds are well predicted by climate change models and are reason for counterintuitive storm number forecasts.

 
Thanks. The same website has OHC for the same region although it updates more slowly. I’ll be following this very closely also. This is the corresponding OHC for the same area as of April 16 as opposed to April 27. It shows that the OHC has also fallen a lot since one year ago, when it was way up at the 2013-24 average for late June! It was on 4/16/25 down to near the 2013-24 average for 4/16 although it actually was a bit warmer than 2023, which was within just days of rising rapidly and reaching then new daily record highs that would go all of the way into June of 2024:
 

 

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/ohc_east.png

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Your link doesn’t show anything. But check the image below out:
 

 The image below is the SST for each year 1982-2025 for the tropical Atlantic 10-20N, 20-60W. The black line is the 1991-2020 average, the red is 2023, orange is 2024, and blue is 2025 to date. Note how much cooler it is as of 4/27/2025 (near the 1991-2020 average) vs both 4/27/2023 and 4/27/2024!

 

https://kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/tropATLsst.png

It will warm up soon btw 

 

“it will be below average/average!” 

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 
Thanks. The same website has OHC for the same region although it updates more slowly. I’ll be following this very closely also. This is the corresponding OHC for the same area as of April 16 as opposed to April 27. It shows that the OHC has also fallen a lot since one year ago, when it was way up at the 2013-24 average for late June! It was on 4/16/25 down to near the 2013-24 average for 4/16 although it actually was a bit warmer than 2023, which was within just days of rising rapidly and reaching then new daily record highs that would go all of the way into June of 2024:
 

 

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/ohc_east.png

Lmao not only the east Atlantic matters. Stop jumping to conclusions 

it will be above average at least

[BarryStantonGBP]

“From today's trip to the weather twitters. Deep tropic suppression because of warm sub-tropics would seem, to me, to decrease risk of a major landfall in the Caribbean and Central/North America.”

LMAO no whoever said this

keep getting your hopes up

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Lmao not only the east Atlantic matters. Stop jumping to conclusions 

it will be above average at least

-I’m not concluding/predicting where the OHC will be come hurricane season. I’m just showing how it looks as of April 16th vs other years.

-I’m showing the area east of the Caribbean because it was so incredibly warm last year and has cooled so much since then as JB has been emphasizing recently almost every day.

-Indeed, the Caribbean and Gulf are also very important regarding OHC. They’ve also cooled though not as dramatically. The subtropics are also important though this section doesn’t have OHC for it as it is a tropical waters section.

Cheers

[jconsor]

10 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

8 hurricanes, 4 majors expected, and a landfall-heavy year

Agreed more with these lot than most of the mainstream

https://www.spglobal.com/esg/insights/featured/special-editorial/an-elevated-2025-hurricane-season

Thanks for posting the S&P outlook, Barry.  Very interesting! One of the few *data-driven* (not totally qualitative) landfall risk outlooks I have seen.

Their maps seem to suggest higher than usual activity in the central Atlantic portion of the MDR (around 40-60W) and the Bahamas area (off FL coast) as well as the Caribbean and GOM.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, jconsor said:

Thanks for posting the S&P outlook, Barry.  Very interesting! One of the few *data-driven* (not totally qualitative) landfall risk outlooks I have seen.

Their maps seem to suggest higher than usual activity in the central Atlantic portion of the MDR (around 40-60W) and the Bahamas area (off FL coast) as well as the Caribbean and GOM.

Yaakov,

 Fwiw, the data driven April 2025 Euro forecast for 2025 has just a near normal CONUS risk vs an enhanced risk in the April of 2024 forecast for 2024:

This was April of 2024: look at all of that red concentrated along the US coasts/in Gulf:

 

Here’s April of 2025: no red…just mainly near normal (yellow):

 

 The Euro might be a bit underdone with just a near normal US risk, but the point is that the model clearly shows a significantly lower risk than it showed last year. And last year was a very bad year for the US in the Gulf/SE.

 I was personally heavily impacted by both Debby (flooding rains getting into my garage) and Helene (high winds leading to a multi-day power outage (longest since David of 45 years earlier) leading to loss of refrigerated/frozen food and miserable inside conditions), but this was nothing compared to what happened further west in GA, NW SC, and especially W NC from Helene as well as the severe impacts on FL from Helene and Milton. So, it not being nearly as bad this year wouldn’t be difficult.

 It will be interesting to see whether the May Euro outlook for 2025 is similar to April’s.

 The SE US/Gulf is especially due a quieter year as 2019 was the only fairly tranquil year since 2016! But Mother Nature doesn’t care about what’s due, which isn’t a forecast.

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, jconsor said:

Thanks for posting the S&P outlook, Barry.  Very interesting! One of the few *data-driven* (not totally qualitative) landfall risk outlooks I have seen.

Their maps seem to suggest higher than usual activity in the central Atlantic portion of the MDR (around 40-60W) and the Bahamas area (off FL coast) as well as the Caribbean and GOM.

You’re welcome

im mostly ignoring any howling for “below normal or normal” seasons because they’re only focusing on “but the MDR IS COLD” 

 

they have been hyper fixating on Eastern Africa and yes it will reheat in the coming weeks as trades lessen. I don’t know why they’re jumping to conclusions plus models can be incorrect sometimes if you remember 2018-19 and of course 2022
 

I have just checked the Caribbean and gulf ssts

 

still above normal even the ohc so I don’t know why they’re jumping to conclusions

 

plus I look at the LRC and more for landfall risks 

 

I am looking at an above average season despite howling 

 

yourself? 

[BarryStantonGBP]

9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Again, that is only representative of the surface and not the OHC which is what really matters. We have seen a very windy NH winter which had the effect of turning over the surface. It’s not like the year over year temp dropped because the overhead temps were much colder then normal. Increased winds are well predicted by climate change models and are reason for counterintuitive storm number forecasts.

“But increased trades” 

LMAO

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

Yaakov,

 Fwiw, the data driven April 2025 Euro forecast for 2025 has just a near normal CONUS risk vs an enhanced risk in the April of 2024 forecast for 2024:

This was April of 2024: look at all of that red concentrated along the US coasts/in Gulf:

 

Here’s April of 2025: no red…just mainly near normal (yellow):

 

 The Euro might be a bit underdone with just a near normal US risk, but the point is that the model clearly shows a significantly lower risk than it showed last year. And last year was a very bad year for the US in the Gulf/SE.

 I was personally heavily impacted by both Debby (flooding rains getting into my garage) and Helene (high winds leading to a multi-day power outage (longest since David of 45 years earlier) leading to loss of refrigerated/frozen food and miserable inside conditions), but this was nothing compared to what happened further west in GA, NW SC, and especially W NC from Helene as well as the severe impacts on FL from Helene and Milton. So, it not being nearly as bad this year wouldn’t be difficult.

 It will be interesting to see whether the May Euro outlook for 2025 is similar to April’s.

 The SE US/Gulf is especially due a quieter year as 2019 was the only fairly tranquil year since 2016! But Mother Nature doesn’t care about what’s due, which isn’t a forecast.

“But decreased landfall expectations!”

”My EURO! My models!”

 

An Elevated 2025 Hurricane Season

Forecast for the 2025 Hurricane Season and Retrospective Analysis of the 2024 Forecast

Published: April 7, 2025

 

 

•  

HIGHLIGHTS

The S&P Global Climate Center of Excellence forecasts above-average hurricane activity in the North Atlantic, Caribbean, and the US and Mexican Gulf Coasts for the upcoming 2025 season. Our forecasts include the overall number of hurricanes as well as local probabilities of hurricanes passing nearby.

Though lower than 2024, probabilities for impact by a major hurricane on large stretches of US and Caribbean coastlines are still forecast to be 50%-80% above their long-term average values.

The driving climate factors in the forecast are El Niño/La Niña and sea surface temperatures in the subtropical North Atlantic. El Niño/La Niña is currently forecast to be close to neutral from July to September, compared to the La Niña state in 2024, while North Atlantic temperatures are forecast to be significantly elevated, though not as high as 2024. 

In this report we provide details of the forecast, including occurrence probability maps. We also present a retrospective analysis of our forecast for the 2024 season. The 2024 forecast was largely successful, confirming the model’s forecast skill.

 

---

Authors
Timothy Hall | Senior Scientist, S&P Global Climate Center of Excellence

 

---

 

Hurricanes: What’s at stake and who could be impacted

Powerful tropical cyclones — known as hurricanes in the North Atlantic and typhoons in the Pacific — are among the most deadly and destructive natural disasters on the planet. Understanding them can help protect lives, homes and businesses. 

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through the end of November, and for 2025, the seasonal hurricane model from the S&P Global Climate Center of Excellence forecasts eight hurricanes, with four of them reaching major hurricane status.

Hurricane intensity is labeled on a range from Category 1 on the low end up to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, and major hurricanes are defined as Category 3 and above. 

The hazard forecast that follows is relevant for many stakeholders, from residents and municipalities to property owners, businesses, and energy production facilities along the US Gulf Coast, US East Coast, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Islands. The information is also relevant to insurers and investors with portfolios located in these regions. We forecast that these stakeholders will have elevated risk to property and infrastructure damage and financial loss in 2025 compared to long-term averages.

To put some additional context around what’s at stake here: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office (NOAA) has tallied 403 weather and climate disasters since 1980 that each resulted in costs of $1 billion or more, with a total cumulative cost of more than $2.9 trillion. Of all those $1 billion-plus weather disasters, tropical cyclones/hurricanes caused the most damage, at over $1.5 trillion total with an average cost of $23 billion per event. Hurricanes also caused the most deaths — more than 7,200 since 1980.

 

Looking ahead: What we’re forecasting for 2025

In most regions of US and Caribbean coastlines, we forecast hurricane occurrence probabilities (passage of a hurricane within 50 km) to be substantially higher than their long-term (1948-2022) mean values. Many sections of US and Caribbean coastline have probability of a hurricane impact (Category 1 and up) approximately 30%-50% higher than the long-term mean (1948-2022), and major hurricane impact (Category 3 and up) 50%-80% higher than the long-term mean. For example, the forecast hurricane impact probability on Corpus Christi, Texas, is 0.078, compared to the 1948-2022 mean of 0.053, an increase of 47%, and major hurricane impact of 0.034 compared to the 1948-2022 mean of 0.019, an increase of 79%. 

These increased probabilities can be seen in Figures 1 and 2, which show 2025 forecast and 1948-2022 mean maps of impact probability for all hurricanes (Figure 1) and major hurricanes (Figure 2). We show best-estimate probabilities on a mapped sample of coastal locations in Figure 3. Large uncertainty is an inherent feature of seasonal forecasting, and location data available in Figure 3 also lists our lower and upper estimates from our ranges of uncertainty. (There’s a 5% chance the true value falls below the lower estimate or above the upper estimate.) For most locations, however, even the lower estimate forecast sits near or above the 1948-2022 mean, providing confidence in the overall forecast of an above-average 2025 season.

 

 

 

Figure 3: Hover over each location to view the probability of hurricane passage within 50 km of a sample of coastal locations. Probabilities are provided for the long-term average (1948-2022) and 2025 forecasts for Category 1 and higher and Category 3 and higher hurricanes. For the forecasts, uncertainty ranges are also provided at the 5% and 95% confidence level; that is, there’s a 5% chance the true value falls below the lower estimate (5%) or above the upper estimate (95%).

 

The total number of hurricanes and major hurricanes that form in the season is also forecast to be elevated, though not as elevated as the local impact probabilities. The best-estimate forecast is 8.1 hurricanes (4 to 13, 5%-95% uncertainty) and 3.5 major hurricanes (1 to 7, 5%-95% uncertainty), compared to 1948-2022 mean values of 6.6 and 2.6. The uncertainty distribution is wide, and the distribution overlaps the 1948-2022 means. The smaller increase in total storm count compared to local probabilities highlights the importance of forecasting local impacts, not just Atlantic-wide formation rates. A small fractional increase in overall formation rate can lead to a larger increase in local probability. If a tropical cyclone reaches hurricane or major hurricane status even briefly during its life cycle, it counts as a storm formed at that intensity level. But by itself, the overall formation says nothing about how long the tropical cyclone remained at that intensity. Our model also predicts how long tropical cyclones remain intense. The combination of more hurricanes and major hurricanes and longer duration at those intensities increases the odds of a locality being impacted beyond merely the overall formation rate. In addition, the model predicts seasonal changes in average paths of tropical cyclones, which can have a further impact on local probabilities.

The factors driving our hurricane forecasts are forecasts of the state of El Niño/La Niña, an irregularly varying signal in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific, and SST in the subtropical North Atlantic. We make use of SST forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which has one of the best track records. As of early March, ECMWF forecast El Niño/La Niña states near neutral for June-July-August (the bulk of the hurricane season), but SST in the subtropical Atlantic significantly elevated above long-term averages. El Niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, while La Niña enhances it, so a near-neutral forecast has little impact. Meanwhile, warm subtropical Atlantic SSTs drive active hurricane seasons. Taken together, the El Niño/La Niña and Atlantic SST inputs, when run through our model, result in elevated hurricane activity.

 

 

Looking back: Analysis of our 2024 forecast

Our successful forecast of the 2024 hurricane season lends credibility to the 2025 forecast. In March 2024 we forecast an upcoming season of highly elevated activity, driven by forecasts for a strong La Niña phase of El Niño/La Niña (Atlantic hurricanes tend to be more active during the La Niña phase) and extremely warm SSTs in the subtropical North Atlantic. While the 2024 La Niña was not as pronounced as ECMWF forecast, an extremely warm North Atlantic did occur, and the hurricane season was one of the most active on record.

 

In March 2024, we forecast a 2024 formation rate of 14 hurricanes, with eight of them reaching major hurricanes status. The season actually experienced 11 hurricanes, including five classified as major. How good is this agreement? Seasonal forecasts are probabilistic in nature. That is, the best we can do is forecast a range of results. As seen in Figure 4, the 2024 forecast range is far more consistent with the actual numbers that occurred than is the long-term average distribution. In other words, the forecast performed better than just using historical average rates.

 

Figure 5: Forecast impact probability maps for the 2024 season made in March 2024. Hurricanes of all intensities (Category 1 or higher) are shown on the left, while major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) are shown right. Also shown (black dots) are observed locations of tropical cyclones when they were at hurricane and major hurricane intensity. The inset values are the Brier Skill Score (BSS) measures of the forecast performance, with positive values indicating skill.

 

Looking beyond Atlantic-wide rates, we can also assess the performance of our forecast on a regional level. Figure 5 shows the forecast probability maps, and the observed hurricane tracks for all hurricanes and major hurricanes. Seasonal forecasts are inherently probabilistic — the maps display the probability of occurrence, not a deterministic forecast for a particular event at a particular time — and assessing the performance of the forecast requires the use of a probabilistic skill score diagnostic. In assessing the skill of such a forecast, one asks if the forecast assigned higher probability to what ultimately occurred than did long-term climatological average maps.

A common probabilistic forecast diagnostic is the Brier Skill Score (BSS). The differences between the forecast probabilities and the ultimate occurrences (yes or no, 1 or 0) are summed up over the region shown in the maps. This sum is then repeated using the long-term (1948-2022) climatological probabilities instead of the forecast, and the two sums are compared. The BSS is designed so that BSS=1 is a perfect deterministic forecast (forecast probability of 1 where events occurred and 0 where they didn’t); BSS=0 indicates a forecast no better than long-term climatology, that is, no skill; and BSS<0 indicates a misleading forecast worse than climatology. A perfect BSS=1 is impossible to achieve, even for tomorrow’s weather forecast. But a useful forecast must have BSS>0.

Our 2024 forecasts have BSS>0, indicating skill beyond climatology. For hurricanes of any intensity, the forecast’s BSS=0.12, and for major hurricanes BSS=0.07. As difficult and uncertain as seasonal forecasting is, this positive skill indicates that our forecast model has utility and lends credence to our 2025 forecast.

The Atlantic is poised for another busy hurricane season in 2025. While not forecast to be as active as the 2024 season, nonetheless the probability of North American and Caribbean coastal regions being impacted will be significantly higher than the long-term average. Populations, businesses, and investors in these regions should pay close attention to hurricane forecasts and alerts as the season evolves.

[BarryStantonGBP]

Also ignore Joe Bastardi’s babbling on twitter. He’s jumping to conclusions and omitting important information by cropping off graphs

he is not seeing the whole picture 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

You’re welcome

im mostly ignoring any howling for “below normal or normal” seasons because they’re only focusing on “but the MDR IS COLD” 

 

they have been hyper fixating on Eastern Africa and yes it will reheat in the coming weeks as trades lessen. I don’t know why they’re jumping to conclusions plus models can be incorrect sometimes if you remember 2018-19 and of course 2022
 

I have just checked the Caribbean and gulf ssts

 

still above normal even the ohc so I don’t know why they’re jumping to conclusions

 

plus I look at the LRC and more for landfall risks 

 

I am looking at an above average season despite howling 

 

yourself? 

Barry,

 Please don’t twist my words. I didn’t say the MDR is cold. You can look back ITT and see that. What I said is that the tropical Atlantic isn’t nearly as warm as last year at this time (OHC and SST) and is close to normal. I didn’t forecast how that will be come H season, but I did imply that the Euro forecasting a near 30 year average season instead of well above like it did in 2024 was heavily influenced by that. I also said the Euro might be a bit underdone with NN. I personally feel the best chance is still for above average in 2025 and near to above average activity for the CONUS, but likely not as active for the CONUS, itself, as the terrible 2024 since the odds would favor not as bad.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

I have just checked the Caribbean and gulf ssts

still above normal even the ohc so I don’t know why they’re jumping to conclusions

 The Caribbean OHC was still AN as of April 16th, but not as warm as a year ago:

 

The Gulf was NN as of 4/16/25 but that was actually near 4/16/24: