LongBeachSurfFreak Posted Sunday at 04:18 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:18 PM 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe we should just talk about number of hurricanes? I agree with your points. Forget tropical storms, once a storm becomes a hurricane is when it really becomes destructive (minus rainfall impacts which can occur with tropical depressions too.) I would rank seasons by number of hurricanes and ACE, not the number of tropical storms. I mean, 40 mph, come on, we get winds stronger than that a few times every year. I've been in a number of tropical storms and didn't find any of them any worse than a typical noreaster. Ask Texas about Tropical storm Allison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:24 PM 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ask Texas about Tropical storm Allison. thats about flooding not winds. a TD could do that too. Any big flooding tropical rainstorm can do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted Sunday at 04:29 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:29 PM 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: thats about flooding not winds. a TD could do that too. Any big flooding tropical rainstorm can do that. A TD couldn’t produce the size and intensity of flooding that Allison produced. You need the lift produced by the dynamics of a deeper low pressure. Regardless, the point I’m trying to make is that some of the most damaging storms monetarily were tropical storms. Thats especially true in the North East. Dianne, Agnes, Floyd and Irene were all tropical storms in the NE all produced catastrophic damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:35 PM 6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: A TD couldn’t produce the size and intensity of flooding that Allison produced. You need the lift produced by the dynamics of a deeper low pressure. Regardless, the point I’m trying to make is that some of the most damaging storms monetarily were tropical storms. Thats especially true in the North East. Dianne, Agnes, Floyd and Irene were all tropical storms in the NE all produced catastrophic damage. For Long Island Floyd didn't do much, it was much worse in NJ. A friend of mine came here from Greece and was like, *This is a hurricane? This is nothing but an average rainstorm! Why are you Americans so scared about everything!* I had to remind him about what a real hurricane can do here. Of course he was no longer here when Sandy came calling. If you remember Irene, Bloomberg got major flak for shutting down the city (and as a result didn't shut it down when Sandy came calling)- man, I really hated him lol. TS like Floyd and Irene characteristically cause the most damage well away from the point of landfall. NJ in the case of Floyd (in our area) and Vermont in the case of Irene. Agnes I wasn't around for at all, but wasn't that a hurricane when it made landfall? I think Floyd was still a hurricane when it made first landfall in NC. Regardless for our area anyway I don't pay much attention to tropical storms-- a historic noreaster like December 1992 causes much more damage for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted Sunday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:45 PM 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: For Long Island Floyd didn't do much, it was much worse in NJ. A friend of mine came here from Greece and was like, *This is a hurricane? This is nothing but an average rainstorm! Why are you Americans so scared about everything!* I had to remind him about what a real hurricane can do here. Of course he was no longer here when Sandy came calling. If you remember Irene, Bloomberg got major flak for shutting down the city (and as a result didn't shut it down when Sandy came calling)- man, I really hated him lol. TS like Floyd and Irene characteristically cause the most damage well away from the point of landfall. NJ in the case of Floyd (in our area) and Vermont in the case of Irene. Agnes I wasn't around for at all, but wasn't that a hurricane when it made landfall? I think Floyd was still a hurricane when it made first landfall in NC. Regardless for our area anyway I don't pay much attention to tropical storms-- a historic noreaster like December 1992 causes much more damage for our area. You’re totally missing the point, this isn’t about IMBY. It’s about tropical storms having the potential to cause huge monitory damages. Even name retirement. We can talk about nor Easter vs. tropical system damage potential all day in the NYC forum. They are completely different animals and pose very different damage risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 05:05 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:05 PM 23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: You’re totally missing the point, this isn’t about IMBY. It’s about tropical storms having the potential to cause huge monitory damages. Even name retirement. We can talk about nor Easter vs. tropical system damage potential all day in the NYC forum. They are completely different animals and pose very different damage risks. But these were hurricanes at one point. There's a HUGE difference between a little piddly storm that never became a hurricane vs a storm that was once a hurricane. Floyd was nearly a cat 5. A little storm that just developed doesn't have the power of a storm that was once a major hurricane. You're making my case for naming noreasters (which they do with similar type storms in Europe.) We should also name atmospheric river events on the west coast (we already categorize them 1-5 just like we do with hurricanes.) If you're going to name tropical storms, noreasters and atmospheric river events should definitely also be named. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted Sunday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:45 PM 37 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: But these were hurricanes at one point. There's a HUGE difference between a little piddly storm that never became a hurricane vs a storm that was once a hurricane. Floyd was nearly a cat 5. A little storm that just developed doesn't have the power of a storm that was once a major hurricane. You're making my case for naming noreasters (which they do with similar type storms in Europe.) We should also name atmospheric river events on the west coast (we already categorize them 1-5 just like we do with hurricanes.) If you're going to name tropical storms, noreasters and atmospheric river events should definitely also be named. Back to my original example, Allison. Obviously a naked swirl at 30 North 50 East that produces a few sheared thunderstorms and an area of 35 knot winds for 12 hours isn’t worthy of a name. That same storm pre satellite wouldn’t have been noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted Sunday at 06:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:03 PM 17 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Back to my original example, Allison. Obviously a naked swirl at 30 North 50 East that produces a few sheared thunderstorms and an area of 35 knot winds for 12 hours isn’t worthy of a name. That same storm pre satellite wouldn’t have been noticed. the only reason it became a problem though was because it stalled. it had nothing to do with strength. There are other types of storms that have stalled out and produced catastrophic consequences, for exampled stalled thunderstorms and stalled fronts. we seem to get more of these every year =\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago On 4/19/2025 at 9:57 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Regardless of why he was closer to the actual number, absolutely no one on earth called that mid season shutoff. My concern is we see a return of those conditions this year. If it hadn’t been for the record water temps extending the season last year, it would have been rather unremarkable. Yeah, the midseason shutoff was historic, and the late season explosion was historic. I don't think anyone called for the shutoff, but I did believe that once the lid came off the basin last year, that things would go into November. I look at it a little differently given the parade of really strong waves in the eastern Atlantic--had we not had stability issues basin wide the combination of exceptional SST/OHC and ENSO driven low shear would've led to a historic season. I think the risk this upcoming season is far more weighted toward an underperforming season than overperforming one. On 4/20/2025 at 1:45 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Back to my original example, Allison. Obviously a naked swirl at 30 North 50 East that produces a few sheared thunderstorms and an area of 35 knot winds for 12 hours isn’t worthy of a name. That same storm pre satellite wouldn’t have been noticed. Totally agree with you on the Allison example. I do think though that some of these short fuse tropical systems should be named when the data says it. Minimal TS by their very nature are often ugly pieces of crap--that doesn't change that they're tropical. If a swirl would get named close to land, it should get named in the open Atlantic. Otherwise this becomes too subjective imo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, the midseason shutoff was historic, and the late season explosion was historic. I don't think anyone called for the shutoff, but I did believe that once the lid came off the basin last year, that things would go into November. I look at it a little differently given the parade of really strong waves in the eastern Atlantic--had we not had stability issues basin wide the combination of exceptional SST/OHC and ENSO driven low shear would've led to a historic season. I think the risk this upcoming season is far more weighted toward an underperforming season than overperforming one. Totally agree with you on the Allison example. I do think though that some of these short fuse tropical systems should be named when the data says it. Minimal TS by their very nature are often ugly pieces of crap--that doesn't change that they're tropical. If a swirl would get named close to land, it should get named in the open Atlantic. Otherwise this becomes too subjective imo. Exactly what I’m thinking. A big part of why the climate models aren’t predicting huge increases in numbers are do to factors like increase shear and lower lapse rates. But on the high end, the potential increases as OHC increases. More cat 5s but not necessarily many more named storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Is a Neutral ENSO expected for this summer? I know that a La Nina MIGHT lessen shear in the Atlantic and might mean more hurricanes/TS in that basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, the midseason shutoff was historic, and the late season explosion was historic. I don't think anyone called for the shutoff, but I did believe that once the lid came off the basin last year, that things would go into November. I look at it a little differently given the parade of really strong waves in the eastern Atlantic--had we not had stability issues basin wide the combination of exceptional SST/OHC and ENSO driven low shear would've led to a historic season. I think the risk this upcoming season is far more weighted toward an underperforming season than overperforming one. Totally agree with you on the Allison example. I do think though that some of these short fuse tropical systems should be named when the data says it. Minimal TS by their very nature are often ugly pieces of crap--that doesn't change that they're tropical. If a swirl would get named close to land, it should get named in the open Atlantic. Otherwise this becomes too subjective imo. I wonder if and when we will return to the types of hurricane seasons we had when I was tracking as a preteen. 1998, 1999. We would have maybe one tropical storm between June 1st and August 15th and then crazy activity between late August and late September. Maybe one late season storm. I am not used to *such* late season activity. We used to get a Mitch or a Lenny or a Michelle, but other than that, most late seasons were quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 38 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: Is a Neutral ENSO expected for this summer? I know that a La Nina MIGHT lessen shear in the Atlantic and might mean more hurricanes/TS in that basin. yes (cool neutral) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think the risk this upcoming season is far more weighted toward an underperforming season than overperforming one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said: Is a Neutral ENSO expected for this summer? I know that a La Nina MIGHT lessen shear in the Atlantic and might mean more hurricanes/TS in that basin. Actually it's been cooling pretty nicely lately.. we might have Neutral-negative ENSO vs Neutral-Positive, which is the difference of about 1.0-1.5 more named storms/year (last season was Neutral-negative). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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