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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season


BarryStantonGBP
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15 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Too low

A lot of "neutral" indicators at this point. the best we have going for us is long term +AMO, but remember for 100 years, the average number of named storms/year was 9-10. 

Here's the SLP April to date

1-54.gif

It's running about a -0.2 correlation to the maps I posted above.. actually hard to get a hyperactive season without this tripole condition in April-May.  We do have a nice low pressure near the Azores so far, which is somewhat good. 

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14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A lot of "neutral" indicators at this point. the best we have going for us is long term +AMO, but remember for 100 years, the average number of named storms/year was 9-10. 

Here's the SLP April to date

1-54.gif

It's running about a -0.2 correlation to the maps I posted above.. actually hard to get a hyperactive season without this tripole condition in April-May.  We do have a nice low pressure near the Azores so far, which is somewhat good. 

Bro have you seen the forecast from Lezak

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Just temper your expectations Barry.. A lot has to go right to have a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. but the trends are favorable right now - We had 20 named storms during a Strong El Nino 2 years ago, and we had 30 named storms 5 years ago. But there are a lot of factors that have to go right to generally get more than 16-17 in a season. I'd watch the NAO and Atlantic tripole in May. 

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10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Just temper your expectations Barry.. A lot has to go right to have a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. but the trends are favorable right now - We had 20 named storms during a Strong El Nino 2 years ago, and we had 30 named storms 5 years ago. But there are a lot of factors that have to go right to generally get more than 16-17 in a season. I'd watch the NAO and Atlantic tripole in May. 

Lmao is that why Lezak had been getting the predictions closest to reality compared to the mainstream forecasters

he was the only one to predict close to 18 NS last year when everyone else said 30+ 

that’s why I’m standing with Lord Lezak and I stick with my numbers 

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2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Lmao is that why Lezak had been getting the predictions closest to reality compared to the mainstream forecasters

he was the only one to predict close to 18 NS last year when everyone else said 30+ 

that’s why I’m standing with Lord Lezak and I stick with my numbers 

Regardless of why he was closer to the actual number, absolutely no one on earth called that mid season shutoff. 
My concern is we see a return of those conditions this year. If it hadn’t been for the record water temps extending the season last year, it would have been rather unremarkable.

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Regardless of why he was closer to the actual number, absolutely no one on earth called that mid season shutoff. 
My concern is we see a return of those conditions this year. If it hadn’t been for the record water temps extending the season last year, it would have been rather unremarkable.

Praise lord lezak

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7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Pretty amazing that we ended up with 18 Named Storms last season, when there was pretty much no activity for a month mid-season. 

Exactly, that was a testament to the record sea surface temps. Had we had water temps similar to the 80s you would be looking at 5-10 named. 

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On 4/18/2025 at 5:32 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A lot of "neutral" indicators at this point. the best we have going for us is long term +AMO, but remember for 100 years, the average number of named storms/year was 9-10. 

Here's the SLP April to date

1-54.gif

It's running about a -0.2 correlation to the maps I posted above.. actually hard to get a hyperactive season without this tripole condition in April-May.  We do have a nice low pressure near the Azores so far, which is somewhat good. 

I think we're in the process of going to -AMO, the +AMO has gone on for too long, 30 years is a normal time for it to switch.

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21 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Lmao is that why Lezak had been getting the predictions closest to reality compared to the mainstream forecasters

he was the only one to predict close to 18 NS last year when everyone else said 30+ 

that’s why I’m standing with Lord Lezak and I stick with my numbers 

30+ is stupid, no one should ever make a call like that.

It's like calling for 100 inches of snow in NYC.

It's just -NOT- ever going to happen.

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On 4/18/2025 at 8:26 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Just temper your expectations Barry.. A lot has to go right to have a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. but the trends are favorable right now - We had 20 named storms during a Strong El Nino 2 years ago, and we had 30 named storms 5 years ago. But there are a lot of factors that have to go right to generally get more than 16-17 in a season. I'd watch the NAO and Atlantic tripole in May. 

some of those 30 *storms* weren't actually storms.... they were subtropical.

These numbers are getting overinflated because what would never be considered storms back in the 60s-80s are named as such now.

In realistic terms, I don't believe it's even possible to have 30 named TC here.

We need a much stricter definition of what constitutes a TC.

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18 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Regardless of why he was closer to the actual number, absolutely no one on earth called that mid season shutoff. 
My concern is we see a return of those conditions this year. If it hadn’t been for the record water temps extending the season last year, it would have been rather unremarkable.

I believe we're switching to a -AMO and I doubt we see the extreme level of activity that we saw in 2005 and 2020 for a long long time. A very hot and dry summer is MUCH more likely than a crazy hyperactive tropical season.

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17 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Praise lord lezak

He was better than the alarmists calling for 30+ storms.

I said this even before the season started last year, predicting numbers that high is STUPID and will make people not take you seriously.

If you want to predict 20+ fine, but don't make predictions that go into uncharted territory.

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

30+ is stupid, no one should ever make a call like that.

It's like calling for 100 inches of snow in NYC.

It's just -NOT- ever going to happen.

 

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

He was better than the alarmists calling for 30+ storms.

I said this even before the season started last year, predicting numbers that high is STUPID and will make people not take you seriously.

If you want to predict 20+ fine, but don't make predictions that go into uncharted territory.

He’s calling for 20-12-5 / 180 this year

my forecast has somewhat similar numbers. 19-11-6 or something like that 

 

speaking of last year, here is what Lezak predicted versus the mainstream, which is why I’m not really taking mainstream forecasters that seriously these days:

 


Actual Outcome (2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season)

 Named storms: 18

 Hurricanes: 11

 Major hurricanes: 5




2024 FORECAST RESULTS – Graded Clinically
 

Source Forecast (NS/H/MH) Accuracy Grade Notes
TSR (Dec) 20/9/4 Overpredicted NS, nailed MH  B- Started strong, but jumped the gun
Lezak (Mar) 14–19 / 7–10 / 4–5 EXCELLENT  A Criminally underrated. Nearly perfect
CSU (Apr) 23/11/5 Overpredicted NS  B Good hurricane count
MFM (Apr) 21/11/– Missed NS by 3  B Solid hurricane prediction, vague
TSR (Apr) 23/11/5 Overpredicted NS  B Clean on H & MH
UA (Apr) 21/11/5 NS too high  B Middle of the road
MU (Apr) 26/11/5 NS +8 = fail D+ MH decent but otherwise bloated
NCSU (Apr) 15–20 / 10–12 / 3–4 Solid all-around  A- Only slight MH undercall
UPenn (Apr) 27–39 / ?? / ?? LOL  F Must’ve been high
SMN (May) 20–23 / 9–11 / 4–5 Slight over, still fair B+ Rounded accuracy
UKMO (May) 22/12/4 Over NS  B- Mid pack
NOAA (May) 17–25 / 8–13 / 4–7 Too wide but technically right C+ Cowardly range
TSR (May) 24/12/6 NS +6  D Wrong type of aggressive
CSU (Jun) 23/11/5 Same  B Clean hit on H & MH
UA (Jun) 23/10/5 Also solid  B But too high NS again
TSR (Jul) 26/13/6 Wild overprediction  D- Absolutely NOT
CSU (Jul) 25/12/6 Big miss on NS D+ MH okay
TSR (Aug) 24/12/6 Same as July  D Doubling down on wrong
CSU (Aug) 23/12/6 At least H & MH matched  B- But still too much juice
NOAA (Aug) 17–24 / 8–13 / 4–7 Safe again  C Politician forecast


 




 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

some of those 30 *storms* weren't actually storms.... they were subtropical.

These numbers are getting overinflated because what would never be considered storms back in the 60s-80s are named as such now.

In realistic terms, I don't believe it's even possible to have 30 named TC here.

We need a much stricter definition of what constitutes a TC.

Do you think they didn’t want to lose funding hence the over inflated storm numbers 

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Just gonna chime in to this conversation and point out that talking about the number of named storms is kinda stupid when discussing hurricane season in terms of both impacts to the general public and interest to us for tracking purposes. It's like when a tree falls in the forest and no one's around. Does anyone really care about a weak tropical storm that never makes landfall? Take 2017 for example... it had 17 named storms, higher than average but nothing too crazy, yet it was the most impactful year on record and had some of the most interesting storms ever to track (looking at you Irma). Then you have 2020 which had 30 storms and even though it was impactful because basically every hurricane hit land, it still didn't even crack the top 10 ACE seasons. Just seems a little futile to be arguing about the number of named storms.

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1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Just gonna chime in to this conversation and point out that talking about the number of named storms is kinda stupid when discussing hurricane season in terms of both impacts to the general public and interest to us for tracking purposes. It's like when a tree falls in the forest and no one's around. Does anyone really care about a weak tropical storm that never makes landfall? Take 2017 for example... it had 17 named storms, higher than average but nothing too crazy, yet it was the most impactful year on record and had some of the most interesting storms ever to track (looking at you Irma). Then you have 2020 which had 30 storms and even though it was impactful because basically every hurricane hit land, it still didn't even crack the top 10 ACE seasons. Just seems a little futile to be arguing about the number of named storms.

Maybe we should just talk about number of hurricanes? I agree with your points.  Forget tropical storms, once a storm becomes a hurricane is when it really becomes destructive (minus rainfall impacts which can occur with tropical depressions too.)

 I would rank seasons by number of hurricanes and ACE, not the number of tropical storms.  I mean, 40 mph, come on, we get winds stronger than that a few times every year.

I've been in a number of tropical storms and didn't find any of them any worse than a typical noreaster.

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3 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

 

He’s calling for 20-12-5 / 180 this year

my forecast has somewhat similar numbers. 19-11-6 or something like that 

 

speaking of last year, here is what Lezak predicted versus the mainstream, which is why I’m not really taking mainstream forecasters that seriously these days:

 


Actual Outcome (2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season)

 Named storms: 18

 Hurricanes: 11

 Major hurricanes: 5




2024 FORECAST RESULTS – Graded Clinically
 

Source Forecast (NS/H/MH) Accuracy Grade Notes
TSR (Dec) 20/9/4 Overpredicted NS, nailed MH  B- Started strong, but jumped the gun
Lezak (Mar) 14–19 / 7–10 / 4–5 EXCELLENT  A Criminally underrated. Nearly perfect
CSU (Apr) 23/11/5 Overpredicted NS  B Good hurricane count
MFM (Apr) 21/11/– Missed NS by 3  B Solid hurricane prediction, vague
TSR (Apr) 23/11/5 Overpredicted NS  B Clean on H & MH
UA (Apr) 21/11/5 NS too high  B Middle of the road
MU (Apr) 26/11/5 NS +8 = fail D+ MH decent but otherwise bloated
NCSU (Apr) 15–20 / 10–12 / 3–4 Solid all-around  A- Only slight MH undercall
UPenn (Apr) 27–39 / ?? / ?? LOL  F Must’ve been high
SMN (May) 20–23 / 9–11 / 4–5 Slight over, still fair B+ Rounded accuracy
UKMO (May) 22/12/4 Over NS  B- Mid pack
NOAA (May) 17–25 / 8–13 / 4–7 Too wide but technically right C+ Cowardly range
TSR (May) 24/12/6 NS +6  D Wrong type of aggressive
CSU (Jun) 23/11/5 Same  B Clean hit on H & MH
UA (Jun) 23/10/5 Also solid  B But too high NS again
TSR (Jul) 26/13/6 Wild overprediction  D- Absolutely NOT
CSU (Jul) 25/12/6 Big miss on NS D+ MH okay
TSR (Aug) 24/12/6 Same as July  D Doubling down on wrong
CSU (Aug) 23/12/6 At least H & MH matched  B- But still too much juice
NOAA (Aug) 17–24 / 8–13 / 4–7 Safe again  C Politician forecast


 




 

Thanks, I'm going to follow his forecasts too, they seem very reasonable.  15-20/10-12/4-6  is what I'd go with too.

 

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