Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 05:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:17 PM Since 1995, our most active Atlantic hurricane seasons have been preceded by a -NAO in April and May Atlantic tripole at 500mb.. -AO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 05:58 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:58 PM 40 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Since 1995, our most active Atlantic hurricane seasons have been preceded by a -NAO in April and May Atlantic tripole at 500mb.. -AO do we have this for 2025? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 06:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:02 PM 2 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: do we have this for 2025? Half way through April we kind of have a reverse-tripole There's not a lot of big -NAO on models through May 1st, but it's not strongly positive either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 08:18 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 08:18 PM 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Half way through April we kind of have a reverse-tripole There's not a lot of big -NAO on models through May 1st, but it's not strongly positive either. What would this imply for the hurricane season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:22 PM Actually here's another aspect of that research.. this is a really strong correlation. sea-level pressure for April and May before biggest hurricane seasons since 1995.. 15 analogs plus and minus. I guess short term SSTs really do make a difference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:23 PM 4 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: What would this imply for the hurricane season? I would put the Over/Under on number of Named Storms at 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 09:25 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:25 PM 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I would put the Over/Under on number of Named Storms at 15. Too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 09:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:32 PM 15 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Too low A lot of "neutral" indicators at this point. the best we have going for us is long term +AMO, but remember for 100 years, the average number of named storms/year was 9-10. Here's the SLP April to date It's running about a -0.2 correlation to the maps I posted above.. actually hard to get a hyperactive season without this tripole condition in April-May. We do have a nice low pressure near the Azores so far, which is somewhat good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 09:46 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:46 PM 14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: A lot of "neutral" indicators at this point. the best we have going for us is long term +AMO, but remember for 100 years, the average number of named storms/year was 9-10. Here's the SLP April to date It's running about a -0.2 correlation to the maps I posted above.. actually hard to get a hyperactive season without this tripole condition in April-May. We do have a nice low pressure near the Azores so far, which is somewhat good. Bro have you seen the forecast from Lezak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:48 PM no.. but keep posting them. more the better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 11:37 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:37 PM 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: no.. but keep posting them. more the better. 20-12-5/180 they're the most accurate despite being an alternative forecasting agency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:39 PM Keep in mind that 20 Named Storms is tied for 4th most in Atlantic history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 12:23 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:23 AM 43 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Keep in mind that 20 Named Storms is tied for 4th most in Atlantic history. What are you trying to imply here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 12:26 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:26 AM Just temper your expectations Barry.. A lot has to go right to have a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. but the trends are favorable right now - We had 20 named storms during a Strong El Nino 2 years ago, and we had 30 named storms 5 years ago. But there are a lot of factors that have to go right to generally get more than 16-17 in a season. I'd watch the NAO and Atlantic tripole in May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 11:19 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 11:19 AM 10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Just temper your expectations Barry.. A lot has to go right to have a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. but the trends are favorable right now - We had 20 named storms during a Strong El Nino 2 years ago, and we had 30 named storms 5 years ago. But there are a lot of factors that have to go right to generally get more than 16-17 in a season. I'd watch the NAO and Atlantic tripole in May. Lmao is that why Lezak had been getting the predictions closest to reality compared to the mainstream forecasters he was the only one to predict close to 18 NS last year when everyone else said 30+ that’s why I’m standing with Lord Lezak and I stick with my numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted yesterday at 01:57 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:57 PM 2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Lmao is that why Lezak had been getting the predictions closest to reality compared to the mainstream forecasters he was the only one to predict close to 18 NS last year when everyone else said 30+ that’s why I’m standing with Lord Lezak and I stick with my numbers Regardless of why he was closer to the actual number, absolutely no one on earth called that mid season shutoff. My concern is we see a return of those conditions this year. If it hadn’t been for the record water temps extending the season last year, it would have been rather unremarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 03:01 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:01 PM 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Regardless of why he was closer to the actual number, absolutely no one on earth called that mid season shutoff. My concern is we see a return of those conditions this year. If it hadn’t been for the record water temps extending the season last year, it would have been rather unremarkable. Praise lord lezak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago 6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Regardless of why he was closer to the actual number, absolutely no one on earth called that mid season shutoff. Pretty amazing that we ended up with 18 Named Storms last season, when there was pretty much no activity for a month mid-season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Pretty amazing that we ended up with 18 Named Storms last season, when there was pretty much no activity for a month mid-season. Exactly, that was a testament to the record sea surface temps. Had we had water temps similar to the 80s you would be looking at 5-10 named. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago On 4/18/2025 at 5:32 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: A lot of "neutral" indicators at this point. the best we have going for us is long term +AMO, but remember for 100 years, the average number of named storms/year was 9-10. Here's the SLP April to date It's running about a -0.2 correlation to the maps I posted above.. actually hard to get a hyperactive season without this tripole condition in April-May. We do have a nice low pressure near the Azores so far, which is somewhat good. I think we're in the process of going to -AMO, the +AMO has gone on for too long, 30 years is a normal time for it to switch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 21 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Lmao is that why Lezak had been getting the predictions closest to reality compared to the mainstream forecasters he was the only one to predict close to 18 NS last year when everyone else said 30+ that’s why I’m standing with Lord Lezak and I stick with my numbers 30+ is stupid, no one should ever make a call like that. It's like calling for 100 inches of snow in NYC. It's just -NOT- ever going to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago On 4/18/2025 at 8:26 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Just temper your expectations Barry.. A lot has to go right to have a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. but the trends are favorable right now - We had 20 named storms during a Strong El Nino 2 years ago, and we had 30 named storms 5 years ago. But there are a lot of factors that have to go right to generally get more than 16-17 in a season. I'd watch the NAO and Atlantic tripole in May. some of those 30 *storms* weren't actually storms.... they were subtropical. These numbers are getting overinflated because what would never be considered storms back in the 60s-80s are named as such now. In realistic terms, I don't believe it's even possible to have 30 named TC here. We need a much stricter definition of what constitutes a TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 18 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Regardless of why he was closer to the actual number, absolutely no one on earth called that mid season shutoff. My concern is we see a return of those conditions this year. If it hadn’t been for the record water temps extending the season last year, it would have been rather unremarkable. I believe we're switching to a -AMO and I doubt we see the extreme level of activity that we saw in 2005 and 2020 for a long long time. A very hot and dry summer is MUCH more likely than a crazy hyperactive tropical season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 17 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Praise lord lezak He was better than the alarmists calling for 30+ storms. I said this even before the season started last year, predicting numbers that high is STUPID and will make people not take you seriously. If you want to predict 20+ fine, but don't make predictions that go into uncharted territory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: 30+ is stupid, no one should ever make a call like that. It's like calling for 100 inches of snow in NYC. It's just -NOT- ever going to happen. 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: He was better than the alarmists calling for 30+ storms. I said this even before the season started last year, predicting numbers that high is STUPID and will make people not take you seriously. If you want to predict 20+ fine, but don't make predictions that go into uncharted territory. He’s calling for 20-12-5 / 180 this year my forecast has somewhat similar numbers. 19-11-6 or something like that speaking of last year, here is what Lezak predicted versus the mainstream, which is why I’m not really taking mainstream forecasters that seriously these days: Actual Outcome (2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season)• Named storms: 18• Hurricanes: 11• Major hurricanes: 52024 FORECAST RESULTS – Graded Clinically Source Forecast (NS/H/MH) Accuracy Grade Notes TSR (Dec) 20/9/4 Overpredicted NS, nailed MH B- Started strong, but jumped the gun Lezak (Mar) 14–19 / 7–10 / 4–5 EXCELLENT A Criminally underrated. Nearly perfect CSU (Apr) 23/11/5 Overpredicted NS B Good hurricane count MFM (Apr) 21/11/– Missed NS by 3 B Solid hurricane prediction, vague TSR (Apr) 23/11/5 Overpredicted NS B Clean on H & MH UA (Apr) 21/11/5 NS too high B Middle of the road MU (Apr) 26/11/5 NS +8 = fail D+ MH decent but otherwise bloated NCSU (Apr) 15–20 / 10–12 / 3–4 Solid all-around A- Only slight MH undercall UPenn (Apr) 27–39 / ?? / ?? LOL F Must’ve been high SMN (May) 20–23 / 9–11 / 4–5 Slight over, still fair B+ Rounded accuracy UKMO (May) 22/12/4 Over NS B- Mid pack NOAA (May) 17–25 / 8–13 / 4–7 Too wide but technically right C+ Cowardly range TSR (May) 24/12/6 NS +6 D Wrong type of aggressive CSU (Jun) 23/11/5 Same B Clean hit on H & MH UA (Jun) 23/10/5 Also solid B But too high NS again TSR (Jul) 26/13/6 Wild overprediction D- Absolutely NOT CSU (Jul) 25/12/6 Big miss on NS D+ MH okay TSR (Aug) 24/12/6 Same as July D Doubling down on wrong CSU (Aug) 23/12/6 At least H & MH matched B- But still too much juice NOAA (Aug) 17–24 / 8–13 / 4–7 Safe again C Politician forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 5 hours ago Author Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: some of those 30 *storms* weren't actually storms.... they were subtropical. These numbers are getting overinflated because what would never be considered storms back in the 60s-80s are named as such now. In realistic terms, I don't believe it's even possible to have 30 named TC here. We need a much stricter definition of what constitutes a TC. Do you think they didn’t want to lose funding hence the over inflated storm numbers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Just gonna chime in to this conversation and point out that talking about the number of named storms is kinda stupid when discussing hurricane season in terms of both impacts to the general public and interest to us for tracking purposes. It's like when a tree falls in the forest and no one's around. Does anyone really care about a weak tropical storm that never makes landfall? Take 2017 for example... it had 17 named storms, higher than average but nothing too crazy, yet it was the most impactful year on record and had some of the most interesting storms ever to track (looking at you Irma). Then you have 2020 which had 30 storms and even though it was impactful because basically every hurricane hit land, it still didn't even crack the top 10 ACE seasons. Just seems a little futile to be arguing about the number of named storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Do you think they didn’t want to lose funding hence the over inflated storm numbers No, I just think we have an alarmist attitude building up universally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Just gonna chime in to this conversation and point out that talking about the number of named storms is kinda stupid when discussing hurricane season in terms of both impacts to the general public and interest to us for tracking purposes. It's like when a tree falls in the forest and no one's around. Does anyone really care about a weak tropical storm that never makes landfall? Take 2017 for example... it had 17 named storms, higher than average but nothing too crazy, yet it was the most impactful year on record and had some of the most interesting storms ever to track (looking at you Irma). Then you have 2020 which had 30 storms and even though it was impactful because basically every hurricane hit land, it still didn't even crack the top 10 ACE seasons. Just seems a little futile to be arguing about the number of named storms. Maybe we should just talk about number of hurricanes? I agree with your points. Forget tropical storms, once a storm becomes a hurricane is when it really becomes destructive (minus rainfall impacts which can occur with tropical depressions too.) I would rank seasons by number of hurricanes and ACE, not the number of tropical storms. I mean, 40 mph, come on, we get winds stronger than that a few times every year. I've been in a number of tropical storms and didn't find any of them any worse than a typical noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: He’s calling for 20-12-5 / 180 this year my forecast has somewhat similar numbers. 19-11-6 or something like that speaking of last year, here is what Lezak predicted versus the mainstream, which is why I’m not really taking mainstream forecasters that seriously these days: Actual Outcome (2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season)• Named storms: 18• Hurricanes: 11• Major hurricanes: 52024 FORECAST RESULTS – Graded Clinically Source Forecast (NS/H/MH) Accuracy Grade Notes TSR (Dec) 20/9/4 Overpredicted NS, nailed MH B- Started strong, but jumped the gun Lezak (Mar) 14–19 / 7–10 / 4–5 EXCELLENT A Criminally underrated. Nearly perfect CSU (Apr) 23/11/5 Overpredicted NS B Good hurricane count MFM (Apr) 21/11/– Missed NS by 3 B Solid hurricane prediction, vague TSR (Apr) 23/11/5 Overpredicted NS B Clean on H & MH UA (Apr) 21/11/5 NS too high B Middle of the road MU (Apr) 26/11/5 NS +8 = fail D+ MH decent but otherwise bloated NCSU (Apr) 15–20 / 10–12 / 3–4 Solid all-around A- Only slight MH undercall UPenn (Apr) 27–39 / ?? / ?? LOL F Must’ve been high SMN (May) 20–23 / 9–11 / 4–5 Slight over, still fair B+ Rounded accuracy UKMO (May) 22/12/4 Over NS B- Mid pack NOAA (May) 17–25 / 8–13 / 4–7 Too wide but technically right C+ Cowardly range TSR (May) 24/12/6 NS +6 D Wrong type of aggressive CSU (Jun) 23/11/5 Same B Clean hit on H & MH UA (Jun) 23/10/5 Also solid B But too high NS again TSR (Jul) 26/13/6 Wild overprediction D- Absolutely NOT CSU (Jul) 25/12/6 Big miss on NS D+ MH okay TSR (Aug) 24/12/6 Same as July D Doubling down on wrong CSU (Aug) 23/12/6 At least H & MH matched B- But still too much juice NOAA (Aug) 17–24 / 8–13 / 4–7 Safe again C Politician forecast Thanks, I'm going to follow his forecasts too, they seem very reasonable. 15-20/10-12/4-6 is what I'd go with too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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