Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 05:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:17 PM Since 1995, our most active Atlantic hurricane seasons have been preceded by a -NAO in April and May Atlantic tripole at 500mb.. -AO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 05:58 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:58 PM 40 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Since 1995, our most active Atlantic hurricane seasons have been preceded by a -NAO in April and May Atlantic tripole at 500mb.. -AO do we have this for 2025? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 06:02 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:02 PM 2 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: do we have this for 2025? Half way through April we kind of have a reverse-tripole There's not a lot of big -NAO on models through May 1st, but it's not strongly positive either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 08:18 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 08:18 PM 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Half way through April we kind of have a reverse-tripole There's not a lot of big -NAO on models through May 1st, but it's not strongly positive either. What would this imply for the hurricane season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:22 PM Actually here's another aspect of that research.. this is a really strong correlation. sea-level pressure for April and May before biggest hurricane seasons since 1995.. 15 analogs plus and minus. I guess short term SSTs really do make a difference! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:23 PM 4 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: What would this imply for the hurricane season? I would put the Over/Under on number of Named Storms at 15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 09:25 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:25 PM 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I would put the Over/Under on number of Named Storms at 15. Too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 09:32 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:32 PM 15 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Too low A lot of "neutral" indicators at this point. the best we have going for us is long term +AMO, but remember for 100 years, the average number of named storms/year was 9-10. Here's the SLP April to date It's running about a -0.2 correlation to the maps I posted above.. actually hard to get a hyperactive season without this tripole condition in April-May. We do have a nice low pressure near the Azores so far, which is somewhat good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 09:46 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 09:46 PM 14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: A lot of "neutral" indicators at this point. the best we have going for us is long term +AMO, but remember for 100 years, the average number of named storms/year was 9-10. Here's the SLP April to date It's running about a -0.2 correlation to the maps I posted above.. actually hard to get a hyperactive season without this tripole condition in April-May. We do have a nice low pressure near the Azores so far, which is somewhat good. Bro have you seen the forecast from Lezak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:48 PM no.. but keep posting them. more the better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 11:37 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 11:37 PM 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: no.. but keep posting them. more the better. 20-12-5/180 they're the most accurate despite being an alternative forecasting agency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Friday at 11:39 PM Keep in mind that 20 Named Storms is tied for 4th most in Atlantic history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted yesterday at 12:23 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:23 AM 43 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Keep in mind that 20 Named Storms is tied for 4th most in Atlantic history. What are you trying to imply here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted yesterday at 12:26 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:26 AM Just temper your expectations Barry.. A lot has to go right to have a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. but the trends are favorable right now - We had 20 named storms during a Strong El Nino 2 years ago, and we had 30 named storms 5 years ago. But there are a lot of factors that have to go right to generally get more than 16-17 in a season. I'd watch the NAO and Atlantic tripole in May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 20 hours ago Author Share Posted 20 hours ago 10 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Just temper your expectations Barry.. A lot has to go right to have a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. but the trends are favorable right now - We had 20 named storms during a Strong El Nino 2 years ago, and we had 30 named storms 5 years ago. But there are a lot of factors that have to go right to generally get more than 16-17 in a season. I'd watch the NAO and Atlantic tripole in May. Lmao is that why Lezak had been getting the predictions closest to reality compared to the mainstream forecasters he was the only one to predict close to 18 NS last year when everyone else said 30+ that’s why I’m standing with Lord Lezak and I stick with my numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 2 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Lmao is that why Lezak had been getting the predictions closest to reality compared to the mainstream forecasters he was the only one to predict close to 18 NS last year when everyone else said 30+ that’s why I’m standing with Lord Lezak and I stick with my numbers Regardless of why he was closer to the actual number, absolutely no one on earth called that mid season shutoff. My concern is we see a return of those conditions this year. If it hadn’t been for the record water temps extending the season last year, it would have been rather unremarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Regardless of why he was closer to the actual number, absolutely no one on earth called that mid season shutoff. My concern is we see a return of those conditions this year. If it hadn’t been for the record water temps extending the season last year, it would have been rather unremarkable. Praise lord lezak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Regardless of why he was closer to the actual number, absolutely no one on earth called that mid season shutoff. Pretty amazing that we ended up with 18 Named Storms last season, when there was pretty much no activity for a month mid-season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Pretty amazing that we ended up with 18 Named Storms last season, when there was pretty much no activity for a month mid-season. Exactly, that was a testament to the record sea surface temps. Had we had water temps similar to the 80s you would be looking at 5-10 named. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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