2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[BarryStantonGBP]

  On 4/11/2025 at 5:10 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Since @yoda summoned me I guess I’ll leave a couple cents here. While I do think solidly active is on the table, I’m still tempted to lean slightly above. 

1) We don’t see anywhere near the expanse/depth of ++SST/OHC anomalies in the tropical Atlantic as we have in recent years. 

2) While cool neutral ENSO is probably most likely, I think there’s still a little uncertainty with that. 

3) The SST anomaly distribution in the tropical Atlantic could lend itself to more stability issues, which has been a dominant feature this decade. With a cool neutral ENSO it’s probably not a huge deal if we’re looking at a 17-20 NS season, but it’s something to respect. 
 

 

If I were to guess right now, I’d say it’s a homebrew  type year with systems struggling again in the deep Atlantic but finding far more favorable conditions west, and perhaps a more muted season in activity across the board until we get to September. 

Major caveat being we’re only now coming out of the seasonal temperature nadir so let’s see if things are running hot mid May. 

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Mainstream forecasters have been pathetic since 2013. I’ve fully started to ignore them but alternative ones like lezak

I can bring you the comparison of all the 2024 forecasts the mainstream did VS lezak. It’s laughable

 

and yes we absolutely are looking at 17-20 NS. Pathetic not to

 

OHC and SST still above average. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

  On 4/11/2025 at 5:10 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

Since @yoda summoned me I guess I’ll leave a couple cents here. While I do think solidly active is on the table, I’m still tempted to lean slightly above. 

1) We don’t see anywhere near the expanse/depth of ++SST/OHC anomalies in the tropical Atlantic as we have in recent years. 

2) While cool neutral ENSO is probably most likely, I think there’s still a little uncertainty with that. 

3) The SST anomaly distribution in the tropical Atlantic could lend itself to more stability issues, which has been a dominant feature this decade. With a cool neutral ENSO it’s probably not a huge deal if we’re looking at a 17-20 NS season, but it’s something to respect. 

If I were to guess right now, I’d say it’s a homebrew  type year with systems struggling again in the deep Atlantic but finding far more favorable conditions west, and perhaps a more muted season in activity across the board until we get to September. 

Major caveat being we’re only now coming out of the seasonal temperature nadir so let’s see if things are running hot mid May. 

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I have the following for my personal forecast, with 2017 and 2021 as analogs

Forecast (barrystantonGBP):
 

Named Storms (TS+)20

Hurricanes (Cat 1–5)11

Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+)6

Category 5 Hurricanes 3 (Humberto, Melissa, Lorenzo)

Estimated ACE 180 (High-End)

 

mainstream is missing something Lezak and alternative forecasters are seeing

Can’t just rely on SSTs, ENSO, instability models alone. Mainstream forecasters have been for many years and they usually are well off

last year only lezak of all forecasters got close to the numbers of the 2024 season and predicted around 15-18 NS the mainstream did not (they overshot). But the masses chose to discredit lezak! 

[BarryStantonGBP]

  On 2/22/2025 at 11:47 PM, Wannabehippie said:

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Names:

• Andrea (AN-dree uh)
• Barry (BAIR-ree)
• Chantal (shahn-TAHL)
• Erin (AIR-rin)
• Fernand (fair-NAHN)
• Gabrielle (ga-bree-ELL)
• Humberto (oom-BAIR-toh)
• Imelda (ee-MEHL-dah)
• Jerry (JEHR-ee)
• Karen (KAIR-ren)
• Lorenzo (loh-REN-zoh)
• Melissa (meh-LIH-suh)
• Nestor (NES-tor)
• Olga (OAL-guh)
• Pablo (PAHB-loh)
• Rebekah (reh-BEH-kuh)
• Sebastien (sus-BASH-chuhn)
• Tanya (TAHN-yuh)
• Van (van)
• Wendy (WEN-dee)

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Bolded the ones to watch for bigger impacts

minor impacts in italics

this is based off LRC

[Eskimo Joe]

FYI:

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Central Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean has decent +SSTA's. There is still some cold water off of Africa

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

  On 4/12/2025 at 1:48 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Central Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean has decent +SSTA's. There is still some cold water off of Africa

 

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2017

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We actually have a little bit of an Atlantic tripole right now. I did research on this last year, when the SSTA configuration was close to opposite:

Since 1995, Positive analogs:  2016, 2011, 2010, 2007, 2002, 1998

Since 1995, Negative analogs:  2018, 2015, 2014, 2012, 2009, 1999 

Positive analogs: 15.5 NS/yr, 7.7 Hurr/yr, 3.3 MH/yr

Negative analogs: 12.3 NS/yr, 6.5 Hurr/yr, 2.5 MH/yr. 

(12 analogs encompasses 41% of total timeframe (95-23))

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

  On 4/12/2025 at 1:48 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Central Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean has decent +SSTA's. There is still some cold water off of Africa

 

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 Could be a good setup for US landfalls as TW coming off Africa wait longer to develope. Less chance for early recurvature. The NE Caribbean is especially really overdue for another Irma type powerhouse. 

[Torch Tiger]

  On 4/12/2025 at 3:25 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

 Could be a good setup for US landfalls as TW coming off Africa wait longer to develope. Less chance for early recurvature. The NE Caribbean is especially really overdue for another Irma type powerhouse. 

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We'll see what anomalies look like JJA, and also that dreaded precip pattern/anomalies over Africa/Sahara dust/etc.

[BarryStantonGBP]

  On 4/12/2025 at 3:25 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

 Could be a good setup for US landfalls as TW coming off Africa wait longer to develope. Less chance for early recurvature. The NE Caribbean is especially really overdue for another Irma type powerhouse. 

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I believe the NE Carib has been highlighted as a hotspot by mainstream forecasters 

and the gulf/Carolinas by the godfather lezak

[Stormchaserchuck1]

One of the biggest anomalies is how the Southeast, US (north of Florida) has stayed shielded from landfalling tropical systems, since year 2000, when the Atlantic activity has been well above average during that time. 

Until last year, that was because of a trough pattern over the East in the late Summer.. then last year a heat ridge developed for the first time in a long time and stayed there for 2 months.. finally in September the pattern broke down, and it got cooler in the east, when tropical activity started heating up, peaking in October. It will be interesting to see if we see some semblance of last Summer this year, and if it may time better with Atlantic tropical activity. 

[TheDreamTraveler]

  On 4/13/2025 at 1:56 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

One of the biggest anomalies is how the Southeast, US (north of Florida) has stayed shielded from landfalling tropical systems, since year 2000, when the Atlantic activity has been well above average during that time. 

Until last year, that was because of a trough pattern over the East in the late Summer.. then last year a heat ridge developed for the first time in a long time and stayed there for 2 months.. finally in September the pattern broke down, and it got cooler in the east, when tropical activity started heating up, peaking in October. It will be interesting to see if we see some semblance of last Summer this year, and if it may time better with Atlantic tropical activity. 

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Besides Irene and Sandy in 2011/2012 the east coast really hasn't been hit by anything major. There was the scare with Florence which was forecast to come in as a category 3 or 4 but then weakened dramatically before landfall. Then there was Joaquin in 2015 that almost pulled another Sandy. Then Matthew and Dorian coming right up to the east coast of Florida but turning at the last second. So many close call examples that it's amazing none of them struck at full power.

[Tallis Rockwell]

  On 4/13/2025 at 7:12 PM, TheDreamTraveler said:

Besides Irene and Sandy in 2011/2012 the east coast really hasn't been hit by anything major. There was the scare with Florence which was forecast to come in as a category 3 or 4 but then weakened dramatically before landfall. Then there was Joaquin in 2015 that almost pulled another Sandy. Then Matthew and Dorian coming right up to the east coast of Florida but turning at the last second. So many close call examples that it's amazing none of them struck at full power.

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Let's hope you didn't just jinx it.

[WxWatcher007]

It’s not surprising to see SSTs come down in the tropical Atlantic given how historically high they’ve been, but there’s still plenty of warmth in the western Atlantic. 

 

OHC though is pretty solid in the Caribbean, and even just east of the Antilles (and note the loop current in the Gulf). As long as ENSO doesn’t lean Nino which seems unlikely, another active season is likely, even if not as historically active as recent years in raw numbers. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

  On 4/15/2025 at 3:25 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s not surprising to see SSTs come down in the tropical Atlantic given how historically high they’ve been, but there’s still plenty of warmth in the western Atlantic. 

 

OHC though is pretty solid in the Caribbean, and even just east of the Antilles (and note the loop current in the Gulf). As long as ENSO doesn’t lean Nino which seems unlikely, another active season is likely, even if not as historically active as recent years in raw numbers. 

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what numbers are you thinking + no CV storms like Kirk?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I think we had 3 record breaking storms last year, for how strong they got east of 40W at that time of the year. It's no surprise SSTs have cooled off this year, after a La Nina. 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 4/15/2025 at 3:43 PM, BarryStantonGBP said:

what numbers are you thinking + no CV storms like Kirk?

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I think we’ll get a few CV storms—but I think most of the action is in the western Atlantic & Gulf. As for numbers, if I had to guess right now I’d probably go 18/10/4.

If I had to range it it’d be 17-20 NS/8-11 H/ 3-5 MH

[BarryStantonGBP]

  On 4/15/2025 at 5:35 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

I think we’ll get a few CV storms—but I think most of the action is in the western Atlantic & Gulf. As for numbers, if I had to guess right now I’d probably go 18/10/4.

If I had to range it it’d be 17-20 NS/8-11 H/ 3-5 MH

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Solid range

What are your analogs?

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

  On 4/15/2025 at 5:35 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

I think we’ll get a few CV storms—but I think most of the action is in the western Atlantic & Gulf. As for numbers, if I had to guess right now I’d probably go 18/10/4.

If I had to range it it’d be 17-20 NS/8-11 H/ 3-5 MH

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Solid forecast. I think we see a Felix/dean style Caribbean cruiser this year. The OHC is off the charts and due for some heat reduction through hurricane induced upwelling. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

  On 4/16/2025 at 12:25 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Solid forecast. I think we see a Felix/dean style Caribbean cruiser this year. The OHC is off the charts and due for some heat reduction through hurricane induced upwelling. 

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  On 4/15/2025 at 5:35 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

I think we’ll get a few CV storms—but I think most of the action is in the western Atlantic & Gulf. As for numbers, if I had to guess right now I’d probably go 18/10/4.

If I had to range it it’d be 17-20 NS/8-11 H/ 3-5 MH

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What is this cope forecast:

https://news.ncsu.edu/2025/04/15/experts-predict-12-to-15-named-storms-this-hurricane-season/

[BarryStantonGBP]

Pray for Humberto and Pablo

https://stormgeo.com/insights/atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast
 

https://268weather.wordpress.com/2025/04/16/268weather-forecasts-a-potentially-super-hyperactive-2025-atlantic-hurricane-season/

[BarryStantonGBP]

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nino 1+2 is cooling rapidly.. looks like Neutral ENSO for hurricane season

  Quote

Since 1995, we have averaged the following number of storms per year in various ENSO states:

El Nino (8 years): 12.5 TS, 5.4 Hurr, 2.5 MH

Neutral (10 years): 16.4 TS, 8.2 Hurr, 3.8 MH

La Nina (11 years): 17.9 TS, 9.2 Hurr, 4.2 MH

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[BarryStantonGBP]

TWC April 17, 2025 19 9 4

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nino 1+2 still warm in April does have a slight correlation with warm Atlantic SSTA's peak season.. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

  On 4/18/2025 at 1:02 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Nino 1+2 still warm in April does have a slight correlation with warm Atlantic SSTA's peak season.. 

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Which ones to look out for?

  On 2/22/2025 at 11:47 PM, Wannabehippie said:

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Names:

• Andrea (AN-dree uh)
• Barry (BAIR-ree)
• Chantal (shahn-TAHL)
• Erin (AIR-rin)
• Fernand (fair-NAHN)
• Gabrielle (ga-bree-ELL)
• Humberto (oom-BAIR-toh)
• Imelda (ee-MEHL-dah)
• Jerry (JEHR-ee)
• Karen (KAIR-ren)
• Lorenzo (loh-REN-zoh)
• Melissa (meh-LIH-suh)
• Nestor (NES-tor)
• Olga (OAL-guh)
• Pablo (PAHB-loh)
• Rebekah (reh-BEH-kuh)
• Sebastien (sus-BASH-chuhn)
• Tanya (TAHN-yuh)
• Van (van)
• Wendy (WEN-dee)

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[Stormchaserchuck1]

  On 4/18/2025 at 1:45 AM, BarryStantonGBP said:

Which ones to look out for?

 

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I would say Humberto is a cool name. Jerry seems like one that wants to be retired. 

We had a record +PNA this last Winter for non-El Nino. The correlation for following Hurricane season is above average H5 just about everywhere (surprisingly because the last 25 years have been more -PNA, with a warmer planet). 

Not as much tropical low pressure in that map, though

You would say tropics are warming from lingering El Nino (because of the previous winter +PNA correlation). but it usually transitions. 

Still there is probably a left over El Nino signal in that correlation composite.. and we didn't have an El Nino last Winter. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

  On 4/18/2025 at 1:54 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I would say Humberto is a cool name. Jerry seems like one that wants to be retired. 

We had a record +PNA this last Winter for non-El Nino. The correlation for following Hurricane season is above average H5 just about everywhere (surprisingly because the last 25 years have been more -PNA, with a warmer planet). 

Not as much tropical low pressure in that map, though

You would say tropics are warming from lingering El Nino (because of the previous winter +PNA correlation). but that's not necessarily the case

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What paths and intensities are you thinking for those two?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

  On 4/18/2025 at 1:59 AM, BarryStantonGBP said:

What paths and intensities are you thinking for those two?

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Summer pattern is so much more stable than the Winter. Year-to-year has a pretty good overall correlation, like +0.3. So you can expect at like 62% the same pattern as last year most likely, in terms of the H5. 

Fall I don't want to make a call on yet, I want to see if last years trend of +NAO's in the Summer continues or not.  More +NAO this May-Aug may bring about a cooler Fall, imo (so more out to sea in the Atlantic late season). 

Hard to say on specifics.. watch the MJO. Are you familiar with it? When it's favorable there are like 4x more storms in the Atlantic than when it's unfavorable. And MJO is a 40-day oscillation, so it can be somewhat predictable when you get closer. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

  On 4/18/2025 at 2:02 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Summer pattern is so much more stable than the Winter. Year-to-year has a pretty good overall correlation, like +0.3. So you can expect at like 62% the same pattern as last year most likely, in terms of the H5. 

Fall I don't want to make a call on yet, I want to see if last years trend of +NAO's in the Summer continues or not.  More +NAO this May-Aug may bring about a cooler Fall, imo (so more out to sea in the Atlantic late season). 

Hard to say on specifics.. watch the MJO. Are you familiar with it? When it's favorable there are like 4x more storms in the Atlantic than when it's unfavorable. And MJO is a 40-day oscillation, so it can be somewhat predictable when you get closer. 

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I’m mostly paying attention to the lrc tbh