Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,876
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Anbelon
    Newest Member
    Anbelon
    Joined

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

BarryStantonGBP

By BarryStantonGBP,
in Tropical Headquarters

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 87
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

Windspeed
Windspeed

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/noaa-employees-laid-off-in-doge-cuts/3555471/ Pathetic.

Windspeed
Windspeed

Yeah, I wasn't aware of a Main Forum thread to cover all the firings and potential dismantling of NOAA, etc., when I posted the news. I had just seen Andy got fired, was shocked, and understanding how

Stormchaserchuck1
Stormchaserchuck1

Nino 1+2 is currently +1.6c. A warm Nino 1+2 in March actually has a pretty good correlation with warm Atlantic SSTs during peak season (Aug-Sept-Oct)

Posted Images

Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted

ENSO subsurface continues to be cold in the central region, which at the very least favors ENSO Neutral this season. Last year I did research on the trend regarding different Hurricane season factors. Here's how ENSO subsurface has been leading surface events:

1A-86.gif

Here's my post from last year which is a 1 year old, but you can still see the long term trends.. I think we had 18 Named Storms last year, 11 Hurricanes. 

In 1995, the AMO (Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation) index switched to positive, and since then it's been rising/still hasn't peaked. 

Atlantic Hurricane season activity is strongly correlated to the AMO, and Atlantic Hurricane season activity has also been in an upward incline since the 1995 AMO switch. Here is a smoothed graph of number of Tropical Storms by year: 

1a.png

Since 1995, we have averaged the following number of storms per year in various ENSO states:

El Nino (8 years): 12.5 TS, 5.4 Hurr, 2.5 MH

Neutral (10 years): 16.4 TS, 8.2 Hurr, 3.8 MH

La Nina (10 years): 17.9 TS, 9.2 Hurr, 4.2 MH

In September 2022, the AMO peaked at an all time high of +0.662, and is still rising/in an inclining phase. I plotted monthly AMO numbers, up until the CPC last updated the dataset, which was January 2023:  

1-12.png

If you smooth out the index, it looks like a very clear rising phase is still underway: 

1a.png

Since those AMO graphs, we had record +AMO last Summer, now it's cooled down to be cooler than the last 2 seasons, but still above the 30-year average. We are still on the general AMO trends. 

The Atlantic activity has been especially strong lately:

- 4 of the last 5 years have had 18+ Named Storms

- The average in the last 5 years is 20.5 Named Storms/year 

- 8 of the last 9 years have had 7+ Hurricanes

- The average is 8.7 Hurricanes/year for the last 9 years

With ENSO Neutral and slightly warm Atlantic SSTs, I'd put the over/under on this season at ~16 Named Storms, just based on long term trends. Remember, the rest of the globe has not been nearly as active as the Atlantic. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
On 4/1/2025 at 12:09 PM, BarryStantonGBP said:

a bit too low on the numbers

https://www.cyclonicfury.com/2025/04/01/2025atloutlookapr/

13-17 isn't low.. the long term average for 100 years was 9 Named Storms/year.. and with the activity over the last 30 years, it has increased to 10 Named Storms/year.  

I'd say a wild card is if the NAO goes positive this Summer.. we are at a Solar max and it has +0.2 correlation with +NAO. +NAO keeps high pressure across the basin, leading to less activity.  Last year there was a clear difference when the NAO was positive vs negative.. It was the least active in parts of Aug-Sept period since 1993 when the NAO was positive, then when it switched to negative late season we had all those strong storms. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted

CSU's numbers were way high last year.. I think they were going with a near record season. 

I think Gawx has researched it, and come to the conclusion that they have an over-active bias on seasonal forecasts, based on several years of putting out forecasts. 

I don't think 17NS, 9 Hurricanes is that far off the progression average though.. 8 of the last 9 years have had 7+ Hurricanes. 4 of the last 5 years have had 18+ Named Storms.  We had a quiet period mid-season last year that may signal a turn to less active conditions though.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

Posted
  • Author
Posted
16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

CSU's numbers were way high last year.. I think they were going with a near record season. 

I think Gawx has researched it, and come to the conclusion that they have an over-active bias on seasonal forecasts, based on several years of putting out forecasts. 

I don't think 17NS, 9 Hurricanes is that far off the progression average though.. 8 of the last 9 years have had 7+ Hurricanes. 4 of the last 5 years have had 18+ Named Storms.  We had a quiet period mid-season last year that may signal a turn to less active conditions though.

underestimating 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

CSU's numbers were way high last year.. I think they were going with a near record season. 

I think Gawx has researched it, and come to the conclusion that they have an over-active bias on seasonal forecasts, based on several years of putting out forecasts. 

I don't think 17NS, 9 Hurricanes is that far off the progression average though.. 8 of the last 9 years have had 7+ Hurricanes. 4 of the last 5 years have had 18+ Named Storms.  We had a quiet period mid-season last year that may signal a turn to less active conditions though.

 Thank you, Chuck. I did conclude that CSU has had an overactive bias in April though only when it had a very active forecast. This is a link to what I posted on 4/7/24, which addressed that:

 Here’s how 2024 actual ended up vs CSU’s extremely active April prediction. Indeed, they once again came in too active in most though not all categories:

NS: 23 (too high by 5)

NS days: 115 (too high by 38)

H: 11 (perfect)

H days: 45 (too high by 7.5)

MH: 5 (perfect)

MH days: 13 (too high by 1.5)

ACE: 210 (too high by 48)


This year’s April predictions are for a still active season but not nearly as active as they were calling for last April:

NS: 17 vs 23

NS days: 85 vs 115

H: 9 vs 11

H days: 35 vs 45

MH: 4 vs 5

MH days: 9 vs 13

ACE: 155 vs 210

 So, these are significantly lower than last April and thus seem quite reasonable as Chuck implied. So, unlike last year, I don’t feel comfy saying that the April CSU #s have a good chance to come in too high. Actually, I’m not predicting either way right now.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted

1948-2022, we had 12 named storms or less for all Moderate+ El Nino's. 

Then in 2023, we had 20 Named storms during a Strong El Nino!

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth-most active Atlantic hurricane season on record with 20 named storms forming, tied with 1933. It was a Strong El Nino. 

That indicated a general increase in Atlantic storm probability. 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

Posted
  • Author
Posted
28 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

1948-2022, we had 12 named storms or less for all Moderate+ El Nino's. 

Then in 2023, we had 20 Named storms during a Strong El Nino!

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was the fourth-most active Atlantic hurricane season on record with 20 named storms forming, tied with 1933. It was a Strong El Nino. 

That indicated a general increase in Atlantic storm probability. 

 

what do you think of weather 20 20's forecast

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

what do you think of weather 20 20's forecast

I think they are kind of aggressive.. the east coast Carolina's-north has not been hit with a big storm for a while, besides what has made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico, and they have 1-3 impacting systems there, and 0-2 in the Northeast. It just goes against what we have seen since the year 2000, where there is a like a 20% probability rate or less of the East Coast getting hit from an Atlantic Hurricane year-to-year. I think Sandy was the last major one to impact the East Coast.. I think as long as we don't go into an El Nino, the projected numbers will be pretty high.. SSTs are warming in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean nicely,  but 20 Named Storms might be a little high.. you need a lot of things to go right for that to verify.  

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

Posted
  • Author
Posted
10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I think they are kind of aggressive.. the east coast Carolina's-north has not been hit with a big storm for a while, besides what has made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico, and they have 1-3 impacting systems there, and 0-2 in the Northeast. It just goes against what we have seen since the year 2000, where there is a like a 20% probability rate or less of the East Coast getting hit from an Atlantic Hurricane year-to-year. I think Sandy was the last major one to impact the East Coast.. I think as long as we don't go into an El Nino, the projected numbers will be pretty high.. SSTs are warming in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean nicely,  but 20 Named Storms might be a little high.. you need a lot of things to go right for that to verify.  

to add:

4848605_1744116472163.png

4848606_1744116481999.png

4848607_1744116491805.png

4848608_1744116500592.png

4848609_1744116509485.png

4848610_1744116516979.png

4848611_1744116523355.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Interesting.. I don't think it's impossible to see 20 storms.. the 3 year trend is an increasing one. Last October we had a period of activity that rivals some of the most active periods on record.  

they predicted the 2024 and 2023 seasons the same way

they were the only company to predict a lower number of NS for 2024 and higher for 2023

I'd seriously consider them

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

Posted
  • Author
Posted
47 minutes ago, Retrobuc said:

Do you get paid by them?  Just curious since you are pushing them so hard

no but they have been more accurate than mainstream forecasters for the past few years

they were the only company to predict no more than 18 named storms last year, and that manifested

secondly, they make a great point about LRC cycles, which totally makes sense 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

Posted
Posted
On 4/9/2025 at 1:33 PM, BarryStantonGBP said:

another underselling mainstream forecaster

You have to understand the long term average is not hyperactive like we have seen for the last few years

No La Nina.. check

No record warm SSTs.. check. That's why a lot of forecasts are average per the post-1995 averages. 

I want to see if the NAO blows up positive again this season, because last year it seemed to be connected to the Solar Max.. but since October it hasn't been as extreme +. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   1 member

×
×
  • Create New...