2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[BarryStantonGBP]

[Wannabehippie]

22 hours ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

help me!

What is the issue?

[BarryStantonGBP]

9 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

What is the issue?

• Humberto (oom-BAIR-toh)

[Wannabehippie]

17 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

• Humberto (oom-BAIR-toh)

And? You have an issue with Hispanic names?

[Sampson]

On 2/22/2025 at 6:47 PM, Wannabehippie said:

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Names:

• Andrea (AN-dree uh)
• Barry (BAIR-ree)
• Chantal (shahn-TAHL)
• Erin (AIR-rin)
• Fernand (fair-NAHN)
• Gabrielle (ga-bree-ELL)
• Humberto (oom-BAIR-toh)
• Imelda (ee-MEHL-dah)
• Jerry (JEHR-ee)
• Karen (KAIR-ren)
• Lorenzo (loh-REN-zoh)
• Melissa (meh-LIH-suh)
• Nestor (NES-tor)
• Olga (OAL-guh)
• Pablo (PAHB-loh)
• Rebekah (reh-BEH-kuh)
• Sebastien (sus-BASH-chuhn)
• Tanya (TAHN-yuh)
• Van (van)
• Wendy (WEN-dee)

sus-BASH-chuhn? 

[Sampson]

7 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

And? You have an issue with Hispanic names?

Fruit of the l-oom-BAIR-toh?

No, not at all. 

[Wannabehippie]

2 minutes ago, Sampson said:

sus-BASH-chuhn? 

Yeah I have no clue where they are getting that sus for the first syllable.

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

2 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

And? You have an issue with Hispanic names?

• Pablo (PAHB-loh)

[BarryStantonGBP]

Hurricane season is 3 months away. Will it be as active as last year?

What to know at this early stage.

February 27, 2025 at 7:12 a.m. ESTToday at 7:12 a.m. EST

 

6 min

3

 

A car sits half-buried in sand in Bradenton Beach, Florida, which was in the process of cleaning up after Hurricane Helene, as Hurricane Milton approached last October. (Rebecca Blackwell/AP)

By Ben Noll

One of the first things that tipped scientists off that 2024 would be an unusually active hurricane season: excessive ocean warmth in a key region of the Atlantic Ocean.

But that’s just one of many factors different as this year begins.

 

Want to know how your actions can help make a difference for our planet? Sign up for the Climate Coach newsletter, in your inbox every Tuesday and Thursday.

 

With the Atlantic hurricane season less than three months away, forecasters are making early efforts to understand how this year may differ from the last. And while specific forecasts for the number of hurricanes can’t be accurately made this far out, forecasters can look to planetary climate patterns for clues.

 

At least two key differences suggest odds are lower for another extremely active season: For one, the tropical Atlantic isn’t as warm as it was last year. And a La Niña (known for cooling a vast swath of the Pacific Ocean) is not expected to form during the season.

 

 

But it’s still early — and current conditions don’t entirely eliminate the odds of an overactive season.

 

Follow Climate & environment

Follow

In the Atlantic Ocean, hurricane season runs from June through November, typically peaking in September.

Last year, hurricane season was hyperactive, based on a metric called Accumulated Cyclone Energy. There were 18 named storms and five hurricane landfalls in the United States, including the devastating Hurricane Helene.

The Atlantic is cooler than last year

Among the many complex puzzle pieces that start to create a picture of hurricane season — including winds, air pressure patterns, Saharan Dust and monsoonal activity — sea temperatures are a key driver.

 

Scientists look as an early signal to what’s called the Atlantic Main Development Region, or MDR, which extends from the Caribbean to the west, and to near Africa in the east. Sea surface temperatures in the MDR have a statistical relationship with hurricane activity.

 

In 2024, there was excessive warmth in the MDR. But it’s not currently as warm as last year, nor is it forecast to be in a few months.

When the MDR is cooler, it can contribute to atmospheric conditions that aren’t particularly conducive to lots of hurricanes.

Forecasts for the MDR extend to July 2025, and they suggest that while seas in the region may be somewhat above-average, the Atlantic’s most unusual warmth will be located farther north.

 

Comparing forecasts made for July of both years shows how much warmer the MDR was predicted to be in 2024 — a prediction that turned out to be correct.

If the predictions hold true this year, that might reduce the odds for a season as active as 2024.

 

Sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region are forecast to be slightly above average in 2025. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/Data source: Copernicus Climate Change Service)

 

The Atlantic Main Development Region was forecast to be much warmer than average in mid-2024. This prediction ended up being correct. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/Data source: Copernicus Climate Change Service)

Andy Hazelton, a physical scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Environmental Modeling Center, said the cooling of the MDR is the biggest factor that has stood out to him so far.

 

“It’s still pretty warm, especially in the Caribbean, but the subtropics (north of the MDR) look warmer overall right now,” Hazelton said.

If the pattern were to continue, he said, it could put a cap on how active the season may be.

 

 

More On The Hurricane Season

Next

Western states face powerful atmospheric river, potential bomb cyclone

A hurricane will likely form soon. It could affect the U.S. next week. ...

Another hurricane could form soon, ominously late in the season

What a fizzling Rafael could signal about the end of hurricane season

Where Rafael, now in the Gulf of Mexico, may go next

Hurricane Rafael tracker: Map and projected storm path

Why Rafael could fuel heavy rain in parts of the U.S. while far away

Rafael is now the 5th major hurricane of Atlantic season

How Asheville residents survive without running water, weeks after Helene

After Milton, what’s next for Atlantic hurricane season?

SBA will exhaust disaster relief funds by next week, chief says

Hurricane Andrew forever changed Florida. Milton could rival its damage.

Tampa Bay feared Milton would be the storm of a century. How bad was it?

Helene has become one of the deadliest hurricanes of the modern era

Hurricanes’ hidden toll: Thousands of deaths years after they strike

Where floods from Hurricane Helene are ravaging the North Carolina mountain...

How Hurricane Helene could have widespread consequences for homeowners

The 4 biggest hazards still to come from Hurricane Helene

 

La Niña may be fading

During hurricane season, the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are more than distant neighbors — they’re connected by the atmosphere. What happens in one doesn’t stay there; it sends ripples to the other, shaping storm activity on both sides.

One pattern that causes a Pacific-Atlantic ripple effect is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has three phases: El Niño, La Niña and neutral.

El Niño is marked by warmer-than-average seas in the eastern Pacific, while cool seas are prominent there during La Niña. Neutral periods often occur during transitions between El Niño and La Niña, as sea temperatures temporarily become less anomalous.

 

 

Early this year, the tropical Pacific entered a La Niña phase — but it’s not expected to last for much longer.

The cool waters associated with La Niña can suppress rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the tropical Pacific. But as the atmosphere balances itself, increased rainfall and thunderstorm activity, as well as winds that are more conducive to hurricane formation, can occur in the tropical Atlantic.

This is why, in addition to the record-warm Atlantic seas, forecasters were so concerned about the level of hurricane activity last year.

But a period of weaker winds in the eastern Pacific this month has caused a substantial warming of the ocean to the west of South America. Because the winds have been less robust, a process known as upwelling — which happens when strong winds churn cool, subsurface waters to the surface — has slowed down.

If the warming continues, it will put the Pacific in a much different state than it was heading into the last hurricane season.

 

Sea temperatures have risen dramatically to the west of South America, suggesting that a La Niña may soon end. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/Data source: NOAA)

 

In 2024, a developing La Niña in the Pacific contributed to a higher chance for more hurricanes than average in the Atlantic Ocean. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/Data source: NOAA)

This year, a developing tongue of warm water in the eastern Pacific could have the opposite effect as it did last year, promoting rising air and more rainfall there, while having a drying effect on the Atlantic.

 

 

However, predictions of El Niño and La Niña are not made equal. A phenomenon known as the “spring predictability barrier” can lead to less-skillful forecasts during spring in the Northern Hemisphere.

“ENSO still has the spring barrier to cross,” Hazelton said. “But cool subsurface conditions and persistent trade winds suggest we probably won’t be getting a rapid flip or setting up for El Niño in the summer.”

The bottom line: It’s still early, but 2025 looks different

One thing can be said confidently at this point: So far this year, the elements that drive the Atlantic hurricane season look markedly different from 2024.

The Atlantic Ocean is shaping up to have a different sea-temperature configuration than last year, with the most unusually warm seas sitting outside of the MDR.

 

A marine heat wave — expansive blobs of unusual oceanic heat that are becoming more common in a warming climate — no longer covers the MDR, but remains active in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, areas where hurricanes derive their energy from.

In the Pacific, the door may be closing on La Niña as seas warm up in the east. But a full-fledged, hurricane-halting El Niño doesn’t look particularly likely, either.

 

Marine heat wave conditions have shifted away from the Atlantic Main Development Region this year. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/Data source: NOAA)

Hazelton said it’s possible there will be ENSO neutral conditions during peak hurricane season.

 

These are some of the factors forecasters will be monitoring closely as hurricane season approaches. Seasonal outlooks of hurricane activity are typically released in April and May.

And while the data may change, one thing is certain: It’s never too early to prepare, especially considering the United States experienced impactful landfalls from Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene and Milton last year.

[BarryStantonGBP]

On 2/26/2025 at 12:50 AM, Sampson said:

Fruit of the l-oom-BAIR-toh?

No, not at all. 

• Humberto (oom-BAIR-toh)

not liking the sound of that one

[Windspeed]

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/noaa-employees-laid-off-in-doge-cuts/3555471/

Pathetic.

[Maestrobjwa]

On 3/1/2025 at 3:18 PM, Windspeed said:

https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/noaa-employees-laid-off-in-doge-cuts/3555471/

Pathetic.

Might wanna put this in the other thread.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Might wanna put this in the other thread.

I already posted the link there yesterday after seeing it here. Andy H being fired was kind of a shock.

[Windspeed]

Yeah, I wasn't aware of a Main Forum thread to cover all the firings and potential dismantling of NOAA, etc., when I posted the news. I had just seen Andy got fired, was shocked, and understanding how we share his critical information so frequently (almost daily during the season), thought it of utmost importance to post here. Numerous critical personnel we rely on in these tropical threads have been terminated, some of which were not probationary due to being new hires, having had promotions or clearance level changes. I don't know how else we could avoid sharing these firings specifically in this particular thread since we post their work verbatim so often. This "situation" will clearly have impacts our pre-seasonal and active seasonal discussion as their analysis may not even be available. Though I did make my brief opinion known in the initial post, I will not delete it, and these additional comments are merely stating obvious impacts for our future discussions from an empirical standpoint. I will say no further.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nino 1+2 is currently +1.6c. A warm Nino 1+2 in March actually has a pretty good correlation with warm Atlantic SSTs during peak season (Aug-Sept-Oct)

[GaWx]

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1220 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:


1. A non-tropical area of low pressure located about 700 miles 
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing gale-force 
winds and a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Additional development of this low is not expected as it moves 
northward to northwestward into an environment of strong 
upper-level winds and dry air tonight and Tuesday. Additional 
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service. 

No additional Special Tropical Weather Outlooks are scheduled for 
this system unless conditions warrant.  Regularly scheduled Tropical 
Weather Outlooks will resume on May 15, 2025, and Special 
Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the 
remainder of the off-season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

[jconsor]

Early indications from seasonal models favor an active Atlantic hurricane season, perhaps even hyperactive.

https://x.com/yconsor/status/1901982720378425715

[BarryStantonGBP]

What analog years(s) may be the best for the upcomming season based on what we know so far about the different factors?

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

ENSO models going near Neutral for the season.. We saw a major warming trend a few weeks ago, but that since waned big time:

ENSO Subsurface is still negative.. so Neutral continues to be highest probability for the coming season... difference since 1995 is: ~20 NS La Nina, ~16 NS Neutral, ~12 NS El Nino. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 3/18/2025 at 1:48 PM, BarryStantonGBP said:

What analog years(s) may be the best for the upcomming season based on what we know so far about the different factors?

Kind of a wide range, but a lot of recent years are probably good analogs.  I guess weed out the El Nino's and La Nina's. 

In the last 30 years though, global ACE is 70% of normal, while Atlantic ACE is something like 185% (and Atlantic is included in global number!). So although warm Atlantic SSTs and no El Nino may make some want to go aggressive, it's important to remember that globally more storms are not correlating with global warming over the last few decades..

[BarryStantonGBP]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Kind of a wide range, but a lot of recent years are probably good analogs.  I guess weed out the El Nino's and La Nina's. 

In the last 30 years though, global ACE is 70% of normal, while Atlantic ACE is something like 185% (and Atlantic is included in global number!). So although warm Atlantic SSTs and no El Nino may make some want to go aggressive, it's important to remember that globally more storms are not correlating with global warming over the last few decades..

thoughts

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-season-forecast-2025/1757562

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Kind of a wide range, but a lot of recent years are probably good analogs.  I guess weed out the El Nino's and La Nina's. 

In the last 30 years though, global ACE is 70% of normal, while Atlantic ACE is something like 185% (and Atlantic is included in global number!). So although warm Atlantic SSTs and no El Nino may make some want to go aggressive, it's important to remember that globally more storms are not correlating with global warming over the last few decades..

Why do you think global ACE has averaged well BN recently despite GW to record highs?

[cleetussnow]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14536433/Six-hurricanes-smash-US-forecasters-warn-blockbuster-season.html

 

Let the hype begin

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14536433/Six-hurricanes-smash-US-forecasters-warn-blockbuster-season.html

 

Let the hype begin

This is a perfect example of hype by Daily Mail. From your link:

Six hurricanes to smash the US as forecasters warn of blockbuster season
 

 But from Accuweather’s actual forecast:

Between 13 and 18 named storms are expected in 2025, including 7-10 hurricanes, three to five major hurricanes that reach Category 3 strength or higher, and three to six direct U.S. impacts.

 That’s a range of 3-6 tropical storms or stronger hitting the US. So, Daily Mail took Accuwx’s 3-6 TS+ hits and turned it into saying that Accuwx is predicting 6 hurricanes hitting the US. Terrible hyping to get clicks.
 

 https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-season-forecast-2025/1757562

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I can see some deep hurricanes this year.. Since the Winter we have been trending toward deeper/stronger low pressures in the mid-latitudes. There have been several 970s/980s mb lows. From 2020-2023, we saw a lot of mid latitude high pressures, so this is a trend in the other direction that really started in 2024. Will be interesting to see if it correlates into the tropics for Hurricane season. 

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Why do you think global ACE has averaged well BN recently despite GW to record highs?

I was just responding to Barry, saying that we saw an expansion of the Hadley Cell, and more global high pressure systems, especially 2020-2023, but really since 1998. I don't know what the correlation with west-Pacific activity and the PNA is, but it might be a lower. It's this ENSO-dominated pattern that I'm talking about:

High pressure in the Pacific might have kept activity down there. I'm not completely sure on that though. 

Now we have more low pressure.. this started in 2024 actually when the NAO was going severe positive many times May-Sept

I wouldn't be surprised if we see an uptick of activity globally this year.... although I don't know why the difference for the last 30 years is so significant.  I think current patterns continue to favor more Atlantic activity relative to the globe. 

 

[crownweather]

On 3/18/2025 at 1:48 PM, BarryStantonGBP said:

What analog years(s) may be the best for the upcomming season based on what we know so far about the different factors?

 

For the hurricane season that I released last Thursday, I went with the following analog years - 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 and 2021.  

I do think that we may be looking at a East Coast heavy season in terms of threats and potential impacts.  The NE Caribbean is another concern of mine as is the central Gulf Coast.  

Link to my season forecast - https://crownweather.com/tropical-weather/2025-hurricane-season-forecast/ 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

48 minutes ago, crownweather said:

For the hurricane season that I released last Thursday, I went with the following analog years - 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 and 2021.  

I do think that we may be looking at a East Coast heavy season in terms of threats and potential impacts.  The NE Caribbean is another concern of mine as is the central Gulf Coast.  

Link to my season forecast - https://crownweather.com/tropical-weather/2025-hurricane-season-forecast/ 

The north east Caribbean is really due for a major. Waters there accumulate heat over the course of years rather then seasons and rely on the upwelling caused by hurricanes for cooling. So essentially that’s an area of virgin OHC. As far as the rest of the Atlantic I think above average ACE is a safe bet. As far as exact landfall locations, I like the SE and gulf again. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

1 hour ago, crownweather said:

For the hurricane season that I released last Thursday, I went with the following analog years - 1895, 1916, 1959, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011, 2017 and 2021.  

I do think that we may be looking at a East Coast heavy season in terms of threats and potential impacts.  The NE Caribbean is another concern of mine as is the central Gulf Coast.  

Link to my season forecast - https://crownweather.com/tropical-weather/2025-hurricane-season-forecast/ 

I've got down on my personal forecast:

EC (especially the NC) and the western gulf are under fire, some parts of the caribbean

16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The north east Caribbean is really due for a major. Waters there accumulate heat over the course of years rather then seasons and rely on the upwelling caused by hurricanes for cooling. So essentially that’s an area of virgin OHC. As far as the rest of the Atlantic I think above average ACE is a safe bet. As far as exact landfall locations, I like the SE and gulf again. 

I have that down as well, but for late season threats

 

[GaWx]

On 3/26/2025 at 12:45 PM, GaWx said:

This is a perfect example of hype by Daily Mail. From your link:

Six hurricanes to smash the US as forecasters warn of blockbuster season
 

 But from Accuweather’s actual forecast:

Between 13 and 18 named storms are expected in 2025, including 7-10 hurricanes, three to five major hurricanes that reach Category 3 strength or higher, and three to six direct U.S. impacts.

 That’s a range of 3-6 tropical storms or stronger hitting the US. So, Daily Mail took Accuwx’s 3-6 TS+ hits and turned it into saying that Accuwx is predicting 6 hurricanes hitting the US. Terrible hyping to get clicks.
 

 https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/hurricane-season-forecast-2025/1757562

I just watched the Thursday daily Joe Bastardi video (he’s now at Weather Bell for those who don’t know). Even he, who himself has hyped at times in the past, said that this Daily Mail headline was hype to get extra clicks. He thinks Accuweather should respond with a complaint that this is not what they forecasted, which was a range of 3-6 TSs or stronger. That’s far from forecasting 6 Hs smashing the US! When even JB is complaining about hype….

@cleetussnow

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Atlantic SSTA's are right near the 30-year average, cooler than the last few years. But the year-to-year makes a difference, as the subsurface does play a role in tropical systems. Because the last 2 years were record breaking warm, there is probably warmer subsurface water in the Atlantic relative to current SSTs.  There is also a cold pool right off of Africa, that has a lite correlation with a cooler Atlantic during peak season, but the anomaly is weak right now so it's not a real good roll-forward.