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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

BarryStantonGBP

By BarryStantonGBP,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Sampson

Sampson

Posted
Posted
On 2/22/2025 at 6:47 PM, Wannabehippie said:

2025 Atlantic Hurricane Names:

  • Andrea (AN-dree uh)
  • Barry (BAIR-ree)
  • Chantal (shahn-TAHL)
  • Erin (AIR-rin)
  • Fernand (fair-NAHN)
  • Gabrielle (ga-bree-ELL)
  • Humberto (oom-BAIR-toh)
  • Imelda (ee-MEHL-dah)
  • Jerry (JEHR-ee)
  • Karen (KAIR-ren)
  • Lorenzo (loh-REN-zoh)
  • Melissa (meh-LIH-suh)
  • Nestor (NES-tor)
  • Olga (OAL-guh)
  • Pablo (PAHB-loh)
  • Rebekah (reh-BEH-kuh)
  • Sebastien (sus-BASH-chuhn)
  • Tanya (TAHN-yuh)
  • Van (van)
  • Wendy (WEN-dee)

sus-BASH-chuhn? 

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BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

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Hurricane season is 3 months away. Will it be as active as last year?

What to know at this early stage.

February 27, 2025 at 7:12 a.m. ESTToday at 7:12 a.m. EST
 
6 min
3
 
A car sits half-buried in sand in Bradenton Beach, Florida, which was in the process of cleaning up after Hurricane Helene, as Hurricane Milton approached last October. (Rebecca Blackwell/AP)
bade7001-1a1a-4ffb-98c4-070a8d8fa6d4.png
By Ben Noll

One of the first things that tipped scientists off that 2024 would be an unusually active hurricane season: excessive ocean warmth in a key region of the Atlantic Ocean.

But that’s just one of many factors different as this year begins.

With the Atlantic hurricane season less than three months away, forecasters are making early efforts to understand how this year may differ from the last. And while specific forecasts for the number of hurricanes can’t be accurately made this far out, forecasters can look to planetary climate patterns for clues.

 

At least two key differences suggest odds are lower for another extremely active season: For one, the tropical Atlantic isn’t as warm as it was last year. And a La Niña (known for cooling a vast swath of the Pacific Ocean) is not expected to form during the season.

 
 

But it’s still early — and current conditions don’t entirely eliminate the odds of an overactive season.

 

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In the Atlantic Ocean, hurricane season runs from June through November, typically peaking in September.

Last year, hurricane season was hyperactive, based on a metric called Accumulated Cyclone Energy. There were 18 named storms and five hurricane landfalls in the United States, including the devastating Hurricane Helene.

The Atlantic is cooler than last year

Among the many complex puzzle pieces that start to create a picture of hurricane season — including winds, air pressure patterns, Saharan Dust and monsoonal activity — sea temperatures are a key driver.

 

Scientists look as an early signal to what’s called the Atlantic Main Development Region, or MDR, which extends from the Caribbean to the west, and to near Africa in the east. Sea surface temperatures in the MDR have a statistical relationship with hurricane activity.

 

In 2024, there was excessive warmth in the MDR. But it’s not currently as warm as last year, nor is it forecast to be in a few months.

When the MDR is cooler, it can contribute to atmospheric conditions that aren’t particularly conducive to lots of hurricanes.

Forecasts for the MDR extend to July 2025, and they suggest that while seas in the region may be somewhat above-average, the Atlantic’s most unusual warmth will be located farther north.

 

Comparing forecasts made for July of both years shows how much warmer the MDR was predicted to be in 2024 — a prediction that turned out to be correct.

If the predictions hold true this year, that might reduce the odds for a season as active as 2024.

 
Sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Main Development Region are forecast to be slightly above average in 2025. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/Data source: Copernicus Climate Change Service)
 
The Atlantic Main Development Region was forecast to be much warmer than average in mid-2024. This prediction ended up being correct. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/Data source: Copernicus Climate Change Service)

Andy Hazelton, a physical scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Environmental Modeling Center, said the cooling of the MDR is the biggest factor that has stood out to him so far.

 

“It’s still pretty warm, especially in the Caribbean, but the subtropics (north of the MDR) look warmer overall right now,” Hazelton said.

If the pattern were to continue, he said, it could put a cap on how active the season may be.

 
 
More On The Hurricane Season
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La Niña may be fading

During hurricane season, the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are more than distant neighbors — they’re connected by the atmosphere. What happens in one doesn’t stay there; it sends ripples to the other, shaping storm activity on both sides.

One pattern that causes a Pacific-Atlantic ripple effect is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has three phases: El Niño, La Niña and neutral.

El Niño is marked by warmer-than-average seas in the eastern Pacific, while cool seas are prominent there during La Niña. Neutral periods often occur during transitions between El Niño and La Niña, as sea temperatures temporarily become less anomalous.

 
 

Early this year, the tropical Pacific entered a La Niña phase — but it’s not expected to last for much longer.

The cool waters associated with La Niña can suppress rainfall and thunderstorm activity in the tropical Pacific. But as the atmosphere balances itself, increased rainfall and thunderstorm activity, as well as winds that are more conducive to hurricane formation, can occur in the tropical Atlantic.

This is why, in addition to the record-warm Atlantic seas, forecasters were so concerned about the level of hurricane activity last year.

But a period of weaker winds in the eastern Pacific this month has caused a substantial warming of the ocean to the west of South America. Because the winds have been less robust, a process known as upwelling — which happens when strong winds churn cool, subsurface waters to the surface — has slowed down.

If the warming continues, it will put the Pacific in a much different state than it was heading into the last hurricane season.

 
Sea temperatures have risen dramatically to the west of South America, suggesting that a La Niña may soon end. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/Data source: NOAA)
 
In 2024, a developing La Niña in the Pacific contributed to a higher chance for more hurricanes than average in the Atlantic Ocean. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/Data source: NOAA)

This year, a developing tongue of warm water in the eastern Pacific could have the opposite effect as it did last year, promoting rising air and more rainfall there, while having a drying effect on the Atlantic.

 
 

However, predictions of El Niño and La Niña are not made equal. A phenomenon known as the “spring predictability barrier” can lead to less-skillful forecasts during spring in the Northern Hemisphere.

“ENSO still has the spring barrier to cross,” Hazelton said. “But cool subsurface conditions and persistent trade winds suggest we probably won’t be getting a rapid flip or setting up for El Niño in the summer.”

The bottom line: It’s still early, but 2025 looks different

One thing can be said confidently at this point: So far this year, the elements that drive the Atlantic hurricane season look markedly different from 2024.

The Atlantic Ocean is shaping up to have a different sea-temperature configuration than last year, with the most unusually warm seas sitting outside of the MDR.

 

A marine heat wave — expansive blobs of unusual oceanic heat that are becoming more common in a warming climate — no longer covers the MDR, but remains active in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, areas where hurricanes derive their energy from.

In the Pacific, the door may be closing on La Niña as seas warm up in the east. But a full-fledged, hurricane-halting El Niño doesn’t look particularly likely, either.

 
Marine heat wave conditions have shifted away from the Atlantic Main Development Region this year. (Ben Noll/The Washington Post/Data source: NOAA)

Hazelton said it’s possible there will be ENSO neutral conditions during peak hurricane season.

 

These are some of the factors forecasters will be monitoring closely as hurricane season approaches. Seasonal outlooks of hurricane activity are typically released in April and May.

And while the data may change, one thing is certain: It’s never too early to prepare, especially considering the United States experienced impactful landfalls from Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, Francine, Helene and Milton last year.

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GaWx

GaWx

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Might wanna put this in the other thread.

I already posted the link there yesterday after seeing it here. Andy H being fired was kind of a shock.

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Windspeed

Windspeed

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Yeah, I wasn't aware of a Main Forum thread to cover all the firings and potential dismantling of NOAA, etc., when I posted the news. I had just seen Andy got fired, was shocked, and understanding how we share his critical information so frequently (almost daily during the season), thought it of utmost importance to post here. Numerous critical personnel we rely on in these tropical threads have been terminated, some of which were not probationary due to being new hires, having had promotions or clearance level changes. I don't know how else we could avoid sharing these firings specifically in this particular thread since we post their work verbatim so often. This "situation" will clearly have impacts our pre-seasonal and active seasonal discussion as their analysis may not even be available. Though I did make my brief opinion known in the initial post, I will not delete it, and these additional comments are merely stating obvious impacts for our future discussions from an empirical standpoint. I will say no further.

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