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2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

BarryStantonGBP
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BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

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Obviously we can have more serious discussions about 2025 in December and beyond, but as of now, using 2024 as a barometer, here's what I personally think (of course, these are very preliminary) will be different next year. Some quirky ideas examined too.

1. I think we're going to see at least an above-average season. Upper 10s in total NSs, upper single digit hurricane count, and 3-5 major hurricanes. I also have a hunch that we're going to see maybe a storm or two end up as being long-tracking major hurricanes from the MDR. Might be a slightly more eastern-based season that this year.

2. I think there will be another major CONUS Gulf landfall this year. Cat 3 or higher. This seems like a characteristic that, unfortunately, is a staple of many recent seasons and is unlikely to change barring any major overarching pattern shifts.

3. This might be the year that the major hurricane landfall drought in Eastern Florida ends. Or....maybe it'll be elsewhere along the CONUS's eastern coastline.

4. A more "normal" season in terms of hurricane timing. Meaning, a fairly weak November and no storms even remotely like Beryl, but late August-early September will be prime time.

5. Our 155+ mph hurricane streak will continue. In fact, I'd wager that we're going to see another destructive Category 5 hurricane somewhere. Maybe not sub-900 mbar, but it reaches a minimum pressure in the 900s.

6. Instead of an I curse, we now have an H curse. Humberto will be the one to watch, and Imelda will be some nothingburger storm in the open ocean.
 
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. 
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GaWx

GaWx

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18 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:
Obviously we can have more serious discussions about 2025 in December and beyond, but as of now, using 2024 as a barometer, here's what I personally think (of course, these are very preliminary) will be different next year. Some quirky ideas examined too.

1. I think we're going to see at least an above-average season. Upper 10s in total NSs, upper single digit hurricane count, and 3-5 major hurricanes. I also have a hunch that we're going to see maybe a storm or two end up as being long-tracking major hurricanes from the MDR. Might be a slightly more eastern-based season that this year.

2. I think there will be another major CONUS Gulf landfall this year. Cat 3 or higher. This seems like a characteristic that, unfortunately, is a staple of many recent seasons and is unlikely to change barring any major overarching pattern shifts.

3. This might be the year that the major hurricane landfall drought in Eastern Florida ends. Or....maybe it'll be elsewhere along the CONUS's eastern coastline.

4. A more "normal" season in terms of hurricane timing. Meaning, a fairly weak November and no storms even remotely like Beryl, but late August-early September will be prime time.

5. Our 155+ mph hurricane streak will continue. In fact, I'd wager that we're going to see another destructive Category 5 hurricane somewhere. Maybe not sub-900 mbar, but it reaches a minimum pressure in the 900s.

6. Instead of an I curse, we now have an H curse. Humberto will be the one to watch, and Imelda will be some nothingburger storm in the open ocean.
 
Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. 

Thanks for posting. I hope your hunches are wrong and that we get a much quieter season. Interestingly, I saw this exact post at another BB but I don’t see it anymore for some reason.

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BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

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2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks for posting. I hope your hunches are wrong and that we get a much quieter season. Interestingly, I saw this exact post at another BB but I don’t see it anymore for some reason.

No problem + I hope they're wrong too, but I sense a CP Nino coming and a 2004 type season. Plenty of warmth indicated in the CANSIPS map

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BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

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@GaWx

List of links to all the indicators:

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... t_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... x_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... t_VSHD.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_VSHD.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_VSHD.gif

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... .sprd2.png --- NAO

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_cu ... urrent.png

https://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_natl.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/

https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... x_THDV.gif





https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... t_THDV.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... MP_048.gif

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... MP_048.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eatl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eatl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eatl_1.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... tlssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... drssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... drglob.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... arssta.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... omssta.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... eq_anm.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... nino34.png

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1080.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1080.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1200.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1200.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 00x600.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpg

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg
 

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BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

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On 11/17/2024 at 5:30 PM, GaWx said:

Thanks for posting. I hope your hunches are wrong and that we get a much quieter season. Interestingly, I saw this exact post at another BB but I don’t see it anymore for some reason.

First forecast from UCL is out, they're going for an average season

[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDecember2025.pdf[/URL]

[URL unfurl="true"]https://www.artemis.bm/news/tsr-projects-7-atlantic-hurricanes-3-major-storms-in-extended-range-2025-forecast/[/URL]

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GaWx

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 So for 2025 TSR is going for near average of 1991-2020 instead of anything close to hyper or anything close to 2024. I hope they are right, but I’ll still take this extremely early prediction with a humongous grain.

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BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

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12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 So for 2025 TSR is going for near average of 1991-2020 instead of anything close to hyper or anything close to 2024. I hope they are right, but I’ll still take this extremely early prediction with a humongous grain.

What are you thinking? I'm personally not buying into it at all

They went 15-7-3/ACE 129 with 2011, 2012 and 2018 analogs.

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BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

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12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 So for 2025 TSR is going for near average of 1991-2020 instead of anything close to hyper or anything close to 2024. I hope they are right, but I’ll still take this extremely early prediction with a humongous grain.

What does this look like to you?

NRJzjiA.png

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BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

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13 hours ago, GaWx said:

 So for 2025 TSR is going for near average of 1991-2020 instead of anything close to hyper or anything close to 2024. I hope they are right, but I’ll still take this extremely early prediction with a humongous grain.

 

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BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 It’s way too early for me to have much of a feel, but I do think TSR is likely too optimistic going with near 1991-2020 averages considering how warm the Atlantic still is.

Do you think the numbers have to be upped dramatically?

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GaWx

GaWx

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25 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

Do you think the numbers have to be upped dramatically?

It is way too early for 2025 forecasts imho. I don’t want to speculate much now. All I’ve said is that TSR seems optimistic.

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WxWatcher007

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8 hours ago, GaWx said:

It is way too early for 2025 forecasts imho. I don’t want to speculate much now. All I’ve said is that TSR seems optimistic.

I’m not paying attention at all, but my gut says backloaded and dramatically quieter, particularly given the ongoing eastern MDR stability issues we’ve seen and possibility of a warm neutral ENSO. Way too early though as you said. 

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BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

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18 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m not paying attention at all, but my gut says backloaded and dramatically quieter, particularly given the ongoing eastern MDR stability issues we’ve seen and possibility of a warm neutral ENSO. Way too early though as you said. 

What do you mean by dramatically quieter?

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BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

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38 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Right at average or slightly below normal with named storms. That would be a dramatic departure from the hyperactivity between 2017-24. It’s early of course. 

I feel that’s overly optimistic. I’m ngl I’m expecting at least above average withthe possibility of a CP based Nino 

 

plus it’s early days. I feel even the cp Nino won’t materialize 

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BarryStantonGBP

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1 hour ago, Normandy said:

We are certainly due for an average year, but my fear is that sea surface temperatures have raised the bar of average.  I do think we see less than last year though but not by much.

Nah I'd wait until 2026-27 + we had 2022

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BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

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On 12/12/2024 at 8:19 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Right at average or slightly below normal with named storms. That would be a dramatic departure from the hyperactivity between 2017-24. It’s early of course. 

 

On 12/12/2024 at 8:59 PM, Normandy said:

We are certainly due for an average year, but my fear is that sea surface temperatures have raised the bar of average.  I do think we see less than last year though but not by much.

 

Disagree strongly with "average or below average year"

 

https://climateimpactcompany.com/north-atlantic-basin-2025-preliminary-tropical-cyclone-outlook-2-2/

 

Quote

Highlight: Another busy season in 2025!

Executive summary: The 2016-24 active period for tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin is forecast to continue in 2025. During the 2025 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season similar climate conditions are forecast including neutral ENSO shifting back to La Nina and a warmer than normal North Atlantic basin. The preliminary seasonal tropical cyclone activity forecast for the 2025 season indicates 20 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes plus the 6th highest ACE index (193) on record. The risk of a dangerous season in the Gulf of Mexico is >50 percent while analogs indicate mixed risk for the U.S. East Coast.

Discussion: The 2024 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season climate was characterized by strong upper ocean heat especially in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, continuation of much warmer than normal sea surface temperature anomalies, and a low upper-level shear environment associated with a developing La Nina climate. Activity was held back during mid-to-late meteorological summer due to stronger than normal trade winds with an axis across the African Desert to the northern Caribbean Islands.

During the 2025 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season, a similar ENSO regime is expected: Neutral ENSO possibly shifting back to La Nina (Fig. 1). The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation is likely to remain very warm (Fig. 2). Due to these factors, the 2025 season should produce as much as the 2016-24 active period totals (19 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes).

During the 9-year active period (propelled by a much warmer than North Atlantic Ocean surface), the Gulf of Mexico was dangerously active 5 of the 9 years. Consequently, the risk of another dangerous hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico is >50%.

The NOAA/CPC probabilistic rainfall forecast for AUG/SEP/OCT 2025 indicates above normal risk of heavy rain in the Mid-Atlantic States suggesting significant coastal tropical cyclone risk in that region (Fig. 3).

The analog years presenting neutral ENSO to weak La Nina transition coupled with a warm to very warm North Atlantic basin include 2024, 2017, 2016, and 2005. An equally weighted consensus of the tropical cyclone activity for each analog year implies 20 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, 6 intense hurricanes, and 193 ACE index (Table 1). The activity level is higher than the current 9-year active period, 30-year normal, and 1950-2024 normal (Table 2). The ACE index forecast is 6th highest in the 1950-2024 record. The top 5 years (1950, 1995, 2004, 2005, and 2017) were each very active in the Gulf of Mexico with mixed results on the East Coast.

Quote

Fig. 1-3: The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast of Nino34 SSTA and AMO index plus the NOAA/CPC probabilistic rainfall forecast for AUG/SEP/OCT 2025.

  Tropical Storms Hurricanes Hurricane Index ACE Index
2024 19 11 5 162
2017 17 10 6 225
2016 15 7 4 141
2005 28 15 7 245
Forecast Consensus 20 11 6 193

Table 1: The analog years used to generate the preliminary 2025 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season forecast.

  Tropical Storms Hurricanes Hurricane Index ACE Index
2025 Forecast 20 11 6 193
Last Year 19 11 5 162
9-Year 18.8 8.6 3.9 151.1
30-Year 15.9 7.8 3.5 134.8
1950-2024 12.5 6.5 2.6 106.3

Table 2: The preliminary 2025 forecast compared to various climatology.

 

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BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

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26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s just an early thought from me. Above average certainly isn’t off the table. I probably won’t think about it much until early April. SST anomalies are still high across the MDR so if there isn’t a Nino or warm neutral ENSO we’ll more likely than not be staring at another active season. 

Do you think it'll be 2023-24 tier

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