BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 05:12 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:12 PM Obviously we can have more serious discussions about 2025 in December and beyond, but as of now, using 2024 as a barometer, here's what I personally think (of course, these are very preliminary) will be different next year. Some quirky ideas examined too. 1. I think we're going to see at least an above-average season. Upper 10s in total NSs, upper single digit hurricane count, and 3-5 major hurricanes. I also have a hunch that we're going to see maybe a storm or two end up as being long-tracking major hurricanes from the MDR. Might be a slightly more eastern-based season that this year. 2. I think there will be another major CONUS Gulf landfall this year. Cat 3 or higher. This seems like a characteristic that, unfortunately, is a staple of many recent seasons and is unlikely to change barring any major overarching pattern shifts. 3. This might be the year that the major hurricane landfall drought in Eastern Florida ends. Or....maybe it'll be elsewhere along the CONUS's eastern coastline. 4. A more "normal" season in terms of hurricane timing. Meaning, a fairly weak November and no storms even remotely like Beryl, but late August-early September will be prime time. 5. Our 155+ mph hurricane streak will continue. In fact, I'd wager that we're going to see another destructive Category 5 hurricane somewhere. Maybe not sub-900 mbar, but it reaches a minimum pressure in the 900s. 6. Instead of an I curse, we now have an H curse. Humberto will be the one to watch, and Imelda will be some nothingburger storm in the open ocean. Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 05:13 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:13 PM But anyway, since we're here, I'm showing now the Cansips forecast for ASO 2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 05:30 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:30 PM 18 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said: Obviously we can have more serious discussions about 2025 in December and beyond, but as of now, using 2024 as a barometer, here's what I personally think (of course, these are very preliminary) will be different next year. Some quirky ideas examined too. 1. I think we're going to see at least an above-average season. Upper 10s in total NSs, upper single digit hurricane count, and 3-5 major hurricanes. I also have a hunch that we're going to see maybe a storm or two end up as being long-tracking major hurricanes from the MDR. Might be a slightly more eastern-based season that this year. 2. I think there will be another major CONUS Gulf landfall this year. Cat 3 or higher. This seems like a characteristic that, unfortunately, is a staple of many recent seasons and is unlikely to change barring any major overarching pattern shifts. 3. This might be the year that the major hurricane landfall drought in Eastern Florida ends. Or....maybe it'll be elsewhere along the CONUS's eastern coastline. 4. A more "normal" season in terms of hurricane timing. Meaning, a fairly weak November and no storms even remotely like Beryl, but late August-early September will be prime time. 5. Our 155+ mph hurricane streak will continue. In fact, I'd wager that we're going to see another destructive Category 5 hurricane somewhere. Maybe not sub-900 mbar, but it reaches a minimum pressure in the 900s. 6. Instead of an I curse, we now have an H curse. Humberto will be the one to watch, and Imelda will be some nothingburger storm in the open ocean. Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Thanks for posting. I hope your hunches are wrong and that we get a much quieter season. Interestingly, I saw this exact post at another BB but I don’t see it anymore for some reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Sunday at 05:33 PM Author Share Posted Sunday at 05:33 PM 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Thanks for posting. I hope your hunches are wrong and that we get a much quieter season. Interestingly, I saw this exact post at another BB but I don’t see it anymore for some reason. No problem + I hope they're wrong too, but I sense a CP Nino coming and a 2004 type season. Plenty of warmth indicated in the CANSIPS map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Monday at 12:47 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 12:47 AM @GaWxList of links to all the indicators:https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.htmlhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... t_THDV.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_THDV.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... x_THDV.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... t_VSHD.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_VSHD.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_VSHD.gifhttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... .sprd2.png --- NAOhttps://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_cu ... urrent.pnghttps://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_natl.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... x_THDV.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_THDV.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... t_THDV.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... MP_048.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... MP_048.gifhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eatl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eatl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eatl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... tlssta.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... drssta.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... drglob.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... arssta.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... omssta.pnghttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... eq_anm.gifhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... nino34.pnghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1080.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1080.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1200.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1200.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 00x600.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttp://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Monday at 12:48 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 12:48 AM An El Nino with a broiling +AMO Atlantic. Welcome back 2023. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now