Winter Outlook 2025-2025

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just realized I never threaded this in the NE subforum, which I usually do....I prefer to update in here, rather than the main forum.

 

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html

 

 

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just realized I never threaded this in the NE subforum, which I usually do....I prefer to update in here, rather than the main forum.

 

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/11/using-past-forecasting-difficulty-to.html

 

seems unlikely to me that a wpo/epo mean < 0 ...even if only between 0 and -1, would lend to that temperature distribution, at least along the np-lakes-ne belt but maybe some cc urine in the punch

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

seems unlikely to me that a wpo/epo mean < 0 ...even if only between 0 and -1, would lend to that temperature distribution, at least along the np-lakes-ne belt but maybe some cc urine in the punch

Just WPO....went +EPO.

[ineedsnow]

hopefully we can cash in here this year.. 

[Jebman]

How do you all do in cold neutral winters? You sure got the MOISTURE this year, you have gotten over 40 inches of rain so far in 2024.

[tamarack]

10 hours ago, Jebman said:

How do you all do in cold neutral winters? You sure got the MOISTURE this year, you have gotten over 40 inches of rain so far in 2024.

But very little since late August - many wildfires in the Northeast above Mason-Dixon.

[Typhoon Tip]

19 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just WPO....went +EPO.

that's fun.   the wpo and epo are  +.2 correlated in dec and jan.  it gets noisier in february, which is rather counter intuitive because that's about the time when the pattern is most seasonally coherent but whatever.  .2 is a fairly high correlation coefficient, meaning that perhaps a 2 in 10 times, the wpo and epo are the same.    

some may read that and think, 'yeah, well then 8 in 10 times they're not'  - but that's not right.  the remaining 8 times are actually no skill. meaning the correlation is all over the place.   the other problem with the correlations is that they are linear.  that doesn't factor in time, that evil actuator of all events.   the natural progress of events in the atmosphere is west --> east, barring any exceptionally rare hyper retrograding things.   index domain spaces will tend to migrate east...  in other words, there's a time lag that 'hides' some of the correlation of the wpo to the epo.   that .2 is likely higher when time lags are applied.   that's probably all i had to say haha

anyway, this does leave room for -wpo/+epo  but that's an unstable scalar state that is proooobably in a state of change whenever it is observed.        

[SJonesWX]

18 hours ago, Jebman said:

How do you all do in cold neutral winters? You sure got the MOISTURE this year, you have gotten over 40 inches of rain so far in 2024.

Beer?

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that's fun.   the wpo and epo are  +.2 correlated in dec and jan.  it gets noisier in february, which is rather counter intuitive because that's about the time when the pattern is most seasonally coherent but whatever.  .2 is a fairly high correlation coefficient, meaning that perhaps a 2 in 10 times, the wpo and epo are the same.    

some may read that and think, 'yeah, well then 8 in 10 times they're not'  - but that's not right.  the remaining 8 times are actually no skill. meaning the correlation is all over the place.   the other problem with the correlations is that they are linear.  that doesn't factor in time, that evil actuator of all events.   the natural progress of events in the atmosphere is west --> east, barring any exceptionally rare hyper retrograding things.   index domain spaces will tend to migrate east...  in other words, there's a time lag that 'hides' some of the correlation of the wpo to the epo.   that .2 is likely higher when time lags are applied.   that's probably all i had to say haha

anyway, this does leave room for -wpo/+epo  but that's an unstable scalar state that is proooobably in a state of change whenever it is observed.        

Well, that state was very prevalent in my extra tropical Pacific analogs. Not anything extreme...I think I went .30 to .60 JM WPO.