MO/KS/AR/OK 2024-2025 Winter Discussion

[MoWeatherguy]

I read on another board from a met on there the sampling can be suspect on features over the Baja where this one is coming from, until moving into a better area.  It's possible we're seeing better sampling now.  More Pacific moisture, better energy, etc.

[JoMo]

00z RDPS with a shift NW as well.

[StormChazer]

Here's a model dump of the NW trend.

 

 

[MoWeatherguy]

Toss the Icon in there as well, for good measure lol. 

[JoMo]

00z GFS shifted NW as well. 

[MoWeatherguy]

9 minutes ago, JoMo said:

00z GFS shifted NW as well. 

Gfs doubled its total liquid over our northern areas. 

[MoWeatherguy]

GGEM Canadian NW as well.

[MUWX]

I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if we wake up to some changes to the warning map 

[MoWeatherguy]

7 minutes ago, MUWX said:

I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if we wake up to some changes to the warning map 

Me, either.  This thing is changing by the hour and will up thru the onset.

[JoMo]

34 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Me, either.  This thing is changing by the hour and will up thru the onset.

It feels very different, rooting for a NW trend instead of wanting no NW trend. 

[stormdragonwx]

Insane. As mentioned in a prior post, I really hope this isn't Lucy with the football. lol

[Stx_Thunder]

17 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Insane. As mentioned in a prior post, I really hope this isn't Lucy with the football. lol

Wondering what exactly do you mean by that Charlie Brown reference (assuming it is from that)..?

[MUWX]

6 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Wondering what exactly do you mean by that Charlie Brown reference (assuming it is from that)..?

Things looking really good for a snow storm and then it all falls apart at the last second 

[stormdragonwx]

Basically yes its referencing the fact I have seen a really good forecast setup bust as short as 4-6 hours out. e.g. warm air intrusion or excessive dry slotting

[JoMo]

00z Euro moved NW as well but tighter with the gradient in NW Arkansas. 

[The Ole Bucket]

Warning was moved NW by one county in my area. Now just need a bit more and we’ll hit mine as well.

Not often SEMO sees an Ice Storm Warning followed by WSW within the span of a week.

[StormChazer]

NAM held onto Its crazy idea from last night on this morning’s run.

Let’s see what the morning runs say here in the next hour.

Winter Storm warnings expanded north, almost to Tulsa.

Also appears to be a few hours ahead of schedule.

[The Ole Bucket]

The NAM is gonna NAM. Ultra juicy. Not that anyone would complain!

[MoWeatherguy]

NAM is still a bit juiced this morning.  Not that far off though from the latest HRRR. Both support warning criteria across a lot of the region.  

[stormdragonwx]

Yeah I highly doubt we will get above freezing like what the local TV Mets were saying would happen to limit totals and ratios. It's 9am and just barely over 20 degrees with cloud cover already heavy. Ground will be plenty cold to stick. Modeled HRRR was saying upper 30's right now last night. Not happening.

[The Ole Bucket]

44 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

NAM is still a bit juiced this morning.  Not that far off though from the latest HRRR. Both support warning criteria across a lot of the region.  

12z dropping a 12"+ in places across central AR. Almost 6" for our Tulsa friends.

Also says I'm gonna get 5"

I'd be fine without an absolute plastering. The ice is having a hard enough time melting on side roads from last weekend here.

But then, if it really wants to shellack our area.. I'm also A-OK with that. Should be pretty easy to clear this stuff by Sunday.

[StormChazer]

OKC Upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. I'm sure Tulsa will be the same shortly.

[StormChazer]

Sraight from the Tulsa NWS page. This should in theory justify them upgrading most of the office area to a Winter Storm Warning.