MO/KS/AR/OK 2024-2025 Winter Discussion

[MoWeatherguy]

11 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Absolutely. But this is one case where I do worry that while the whole storm may indeed drift north the cutoff may be sharper than what is being modeled. Feels like it depends on that other little feature to the north and west...

Where are you located?

[The Ole Bucket]

1 minute ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Where are you located?

Ste. Genevieve, MO.

Small town along the Mississippi about an hour south of STL.

[MoWeatherguy]

5 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said:

Ste. Genevieve, MO.

Small town along the Mississippi about an hour south of STL.

Ok yah been there before.  Nice place. I lived in the Dexter/Sikeston area a few years ago and visited Cape quite a bit. 

[MUWX]

12z HRRR is pretty warm, would likely cause some accumulation issues especially in Oklahoma. 

[MoWeatherguy]

3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

12z HRRR is pretty warm, would likely cause some accumulation issues especially in Oklahoma. 

I'm afraid warm air aloft is being underestimated on some of these models. 

[StormChazer]

If this dry slot manifests, it will definitely limit amounts during what would be the peak of the storm. So here's to hoping that doesn't happen.

[The Ole Bucket]

12z GFS basically a replica of the previous run.

[StormChazer]

GFS and GEM essentially both look about the same from their previous runs. The only differences are they are defining where that cutoff of the precip shield is going to be.

It's looking right now like Stillwater to Bartlesville to just north of Joplin will be the line.

But the dry slot is going to really damper someone here.

So far, the Canadian and NAM are identifying the dry slot. I'd prefer it stay there and not come any closer. Thanks!

 

[StormChazer]

12Z Euro

There's that dry slot trying to break my heart in Tulsa.

 

9:00PM Thursday night

[stormdragonwx]

Looks like a 2nd dry slot in NWA right over my house too on that model. Hopefully this doesn't trend.

[MoWeatherguy]

Warnings and advisories are up. Let's see how this thing unfolds now. 

[The Ole Bucket]

18z NAM not quite as favorable as the 12z to those who want the storm to get northwest a little bit. But still better than the 6z. 

[StormChazer]

[StormChazer]

12Z NAM vs 18Z NAM.

I'll gladly take the 18Z

 

12Z

 

 

18Z

[JoMo]

2-4" seems about right for a general snowfall for areas not in the Winter Storm Warning.  Areas that sit under any banding will probably be on the higher side of that. Also, probably an area of 1-3" where that dry pocket ends up. 

[Iceresistance]

I am under a winter weather advisory for up to 2 inches of snow

[stormdragonwx]

18z NAM almost on par with the crazy totals the Canadian has been showing for a good bit. It's a good sign to see it trending up 12 hours out from the event.

[stormdragonwx]

Here is the GEFS modeled ensemble members showing potential snowfall over the next 84 hours.

[StormChazer]

NAM isn’t done yet, but looking to me like a NW shift right now.

[The Waterboy]

The NAM was an absolute smash!!!

[StormChazer]

The NAM just lost its ever loving mind.

The high res version drops 6 inches in Tulsa, and the lower res drops close to a foot of snow in Tulsa….

[MoWeatherguy]

1 minute ago, The Waterboy said:

The NAM was an absolute smash!!!

Beautiful!!

[MoWeatherguy]

1 minute ago, StormChazer said:

The NAM just lost its ever loving mind.

The high res version drops 6 inches in Tulsa, and the lower res drops close to a foot of snow in Tulsa….

Let's hope it's onto something tonight.  Do you have the latest HRRR run?

[stormdragonwx]

After saying no snow yesterday the 00z NAM just blew up... wow

Though I find interesting the local TV mets here are saying we will warm well above freezing overnight (due to warm air advection) into the morning limiting snowfall, where I am at we haven't been above freezing since Sunday. Its totally clear and in the teens tonight. I don't see it happening but stranger things have happened and we get a big sleet storm as a result.

[StormChazer]

2 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Let's hope it's onto something tonight.  Do you have the latest HRRR run?

I do but I can’t post it right now.

 

The 0Z HRRR dumps 4-5 inches in NW AR and SW MO and about 3.5-4 in Tulsa.

It’s an uptick across the board.

[MoWeatherguy]

2 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

I do but I can’t post it right now.

 

The 0Z HRRR dumps 4-5 inches in NW AR and SW MO and about 3.5-4 in Tulsa.

It’s an uptick across the board.

Good to hear.  Thank you

[MoWeatherguy]

This late in the game,  fully sampled,  if the GFS pops like this we're in baby!

[JoMo]

Trough is more neutrally tilted on the 00z NAM with the 500 MB winds backing more to the south. Interesting NAM run, but, it is the NAM. 

[StormChazer]

2 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Trough is more neutrally tilted on the 00z NAM with the 500 MB winds backing more to the south. Interesting NAM run, but, it is the NAM. 

Yeah, like someone just said. A day ago it abandoned the storm altogether for everyone in TX and OK. So will want to see other models trend that way too before buying it.

Still, 16 hours out from the onset of a storm, and these are the trends you want to see.

[stormdragonwx]

SREF Averages

 

GEFS Averages