draco1188 Posted Tuesday at 05:47 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:47 AM Oof - I hope the 00z Euro is a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted Tuesday at 06:57 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:57 AM On 1/6/2025 at 1:36 PM, The Ole Bucket said: Maybe this is just a bias from my days of tracking when I lived in VA... but I feel like right now you'd prefer the models to be a bit south at this point. Certainly shifted north last time once we got within a couple days before the event. Then held steady-ish, though I for sure got way more sleet than expected and much less FZRA (not that I'm complaining) Some of this "Texas is gonna get a foot" seems absurd to me. Surely it has to come north some! Saw FZRA icing accumulation this past weekend was actually 0.50 - 0.75 inches in southeastern MO (St Louis NWS) storm report near Chloride. Just like the GFS painted there last week. A 2.5" Sleet LSR somewhere in that region as well, but there was snow mixed in many of those sleet reports. Things are trending less snow and potentially more icing over Eastern TX because of projected warmer LLs, but possibly a dismal rain only. Even in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Tuesday at 03:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:18 PM And just like that, the 12Z NAM has ALL the meteorologists biting their nails. The storm just doesn’t manifest. The precip train stays to the south of DFW and the cold air doesn’t catch it. Dry and where there is precip it’s rain. And we don’t even sniff flurries up here on that run. So here’s to hoping the NAM is out to lunch and not onto something… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Tuesday at 03:21 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:21 PM The 12Z High Res Canadian isn't going with the NAM at all. Canadian NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Tuesday at 04:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:08 PM Yah NAM looks wacky. Hope it's not onto something. GFS is a bit drier here, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted Tuesday at 04:33 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:33 PM 12z Canadian stays the course which is nice to see. Very similar to its 12z run yesterday and more robust than the 00z last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Tuesday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:43 PM 8 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: 12z Canadian stays the course which is nice to see. Very similar to its 12z run yesterday and more robust than the 00z last night. Canadian did hold. There's only 4 inches difference between it and GFS lol. Has Canada ever had it right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Tuesday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:55 PM 10 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Canadian did hold. There's only 4 inches difference between it and GFS lol. Has Canada ever had it right? I want to say there's an interesting statistic that when the Canadian and ICON agree with one another, it has a very good track record. But otherwise, it's always too cold or overdoes it. It is the optomist's model, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:03 PM EURO looks to be still on target. The NAM is doing its normal garbage stuff at this range. I am most concerned about the northern extent of the snow. That dry air can be a snow killer in these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted Tuesday at 07:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 07:35 PM Ive remained skeptical of this setup for the past few days. It shows signs of Lucy pulling the Football like most of these tend to do. This has huge bust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Tuesday at 08:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:07 PM So far, the 500mb vorticity on the NAM is looking more like the 06Z run than the 12Z run, which is good. But just getting into Wed night atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Tuesday at 08:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:37 PM The NAM says, "Sorry about that afternoon run, Idk what got into me". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Tuesday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:39 PM 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: The NAM says, "Sorry about that afternoon run, Idk what got into me". Yes, looks more like it now! I'd take that at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Tuesday at 08:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:47 PM High res NAM This is midnight. I would say this is probably the best case scenario at this point that we could reasonably expect. This is midnight's totals with precip still falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Tuesday at 08:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:55 PM 6 minutes ago, StormChazer said: High res NAM This is 8:00PM on Thursday. I would say this is probably the best case scenario at this point that we could reasonably expect. This is midnight's totals with precip still falling. We'll be lucky to squeeze out a couple of inches for those of us in these northern reaches of AR, OK, and SW MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted Tuesday at 08:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:56 PM 8 minutes ago, StormChazer said: High res NAM This is 8:00PM on Thursday. I would say this is probably the best case scenario at this point that we could reasonably expect. This is midnight's totals with precip still falling. Images are at different times, but still a good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Tuesday at 09:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:06 PM 8 minutes ago, MUWX said: Images are at different times, but still a good run Edited to get rid of confusion! Now they are the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted Tuesday at 09:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:19 PM Looks like 18z high-res Canadian shifted NW ever so slightly which increases totals for pretty much everybody. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted Tuesday at 11:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:48 PM Higher snow ratios will help those on the northern fringe of the precip which does fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted yesterday at 02:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:31 AM 0z NAM already looking different to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago Beginning to notice a favorable trend. It appears there will be a decent bit of energy on the northern side of this storm that benefits us. Here is some examples. Last frame of the HRRR shows the second bit of precip. About as good of a trend we can ask for under 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 7 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Beginning to notice a favorable trend. It appears there will be a decent bit of energy on the northern side of this storm that benefits us. Here is some examples. Last frame of the HRRR shows the second bit of precip. About as good of a trend we can ask for under 48 hours out. 0z GFS is following suit. Snow amounts in our northern reaches has almost doubled from what was depicted at 12z this morning. Below is 0z tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Now it's time for the climo trend to kick in and bring the heavier precip shield a bit more north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 1 hour ago, The Ole Bucket said: Now it's time for the climo trend to kick in and bring the heavier precip shield a bit more north... Right on cue, here's the new NAM. But it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 12Z HRRR 12Z NAM I'm noticing a nice trend here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago All of the high res models are moving the precip further north, widespread 2-3.5 for most everyone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 9 minutes ago, StormChazer said: All of the high res models are moving the precip further north, widespread 2-3.5 for most everyone here. 3+ would be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago Always assume the storm will go north! Always! I've lived on the borderline for so long that I always assume anything that shows me in the jackpot (like the last time about 5-6 days out) will inevitably go north. This may be a rare time where that phenomenon may pay off positively! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 3 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: 3+ would be great! Absolutely. But this is one case where I do worry that while the whole storm may indeed drift north the cutoff may be sharper than what is being modeled. Feels like it depends on that other little feature to the north and west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago 9 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Absolutely. But this is one case where I do worry that while the whole storm may indeed drift north the cutoff may be sharper than what is being modeled. Feels like it depends on that other little feature to the north and west... Yes, I agree. And then there's the warm nose issue that is always mishandled. I think the 12+ on models down south is way overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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