The Waterboy Posted Tuesday at 08:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:12 PM Finally started coming down heavier in Bentonville. Road/driveway coated in 30 mins or less. We’re going to need these heavy bands to continue for a few hours straight in order to get 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Tuesday at 08:31 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:31 PM You know, it takes a PERFECT setup for something like this to happen with high totals. One thing is off and POOF it can evaporate. Obviously, this isn't going to go the way we were hoping in Tulsa, but I'm trying to adjust my perspective and just enjoy this for what it is Models are still suggesting it picks up, so we will see. I know there is a band developing NE of OKC that would be in-line with moving over Tulsa. If we can still squeeze 3 ish inches out of this, I'll be happy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted Tuesday at 08:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:34 PM Pretty crazy that after how promising this looked last night that this might not end up being our biggest storm of the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Tuesday at 08:34 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:34 PM It does appear that a band is beginning to develope north of Tulsa and will sag southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted Tuesday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:43 PM 22 hours ago, schoeppeya said: I'm finally letting myself buy in now that we are 12ish hours from the start and trends are increasing totals if anything. Looking like it's going to be the biggest snow since Feb 2011 followed by deep, deep cold. Hope everybody gets the goods and enjoys this once in every 15- or 20-year type event. Absolutely classic that we immediately started trending away from the high end solutions after this post 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Tuesday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:50 PM SGF just updated graphics and insists there will still be an additional 8-10 inches past 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted Tuesday at 08:51 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:51 PM 1 minute ago, MoWeatherguy said: SGF just updated graphics and insists there will still be an additional 8-10 inches past 2pm. I hope they are right, but man, I really don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted Tuesday at 08:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 08:54 PM 11 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Absolutely classic that we immediately started trending away from the high end solutions after this post You jinxed it! And we’re all blaming you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted Tuesday at 09:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:04 PM Wondering how you all feel about these: 1. I’ll take a wet snow over a dry, blowing snow pretty much every time. 2. I much prefer models showing a few inches and the storm over performing vs this nonsense of 12” turning into way less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted Tuesday at 09:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:11 PM 15 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: You jinxed it! And we’re all blaming you!!! Ill own it, and it won't be the first time its felt like I have singlehandedly jinxed a big event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Tuesday at 09:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 09:12 PM 6 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Wondering how you all feel about these: 1. I’ll take a wet snow over a dry, blowing snow pretty much every time. 2. I much prefer models showing a few inches and the storm over performing vs this nonsense of 12” turning into way less. Agree on both. These over hyped ones seem to bust more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Tuesday at 10:08 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 10:08 PM Currently in a heavy band that's near whiteout at times due to the wind. I expected early on that in this type of setup that the area that got into the heavier bands of snow would end up with a lot more than areas outside the banding. I'd say it looks like maybe 5" out there but can't really tell due to the drifting. I know Doug Heady said 3.5" earlier before this band started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doramo Posted Tuesday at 10:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:20 PM Heavy banding here currently ....I feel for those so far, who are missing out on the heavy snow . But it aint over yet so who knows ? We've missed more than hit here over the years . I've never seen snow coming down this heavy since I moved here in 2002? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted Tuesday at 10:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 10:35 PM Finally moderate to heavy snow here, hopefully can squeeze a couple inches out of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted Tuesday at 11:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 11:16 PM I am guessing we are around 4 inches. SGF seeing the radar and high res models today and still coming out at 2:00 and saying 8-10 more inches was on the way is so on brand for SGF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Tuesday at 11:19 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 11:19 PM 2 minutes ago, MUWX said: I am guessing we are around 4 inches. SGF seeing the radar and high res models today and still coming out at 2:00 and saying 8-10 more inches was on the way is so on brand for SGF. Well, there was a 10%-80% chance of it happening. The same Springfield that took major heat for missing several tornado warnings recently as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted Wednesday at 12:15 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:15 AM Not going to drone on about it anymore but this is the worst modeling bust inside of 12 hours I can remember outside of a severe weather bust or two. Radar estimates have me at .1” QPF which is 1/4 the lowest amount any model had me at even as if 06z this morning. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Wednesday at 12:26 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:26 AM 7 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Not going to drone on about it anymore but this is the worst modeling bust inside of 12 hours I can remember outside of a severe weather bust or two. Radar estimates have me at .1” QPF which is 1/4 the lowest amount any model had me at even as if 06z this morning. . Yah this was pretty bad. One thing I've learned is just focus on those 10:1 ratio maps and ignore the Kuchera. I caught myself looking at Kuchera with all the talk of strong arctic intrusion and higher ratios. I think looking back the Euro 10:1 had it pretty close, at least in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted Wednesday at 12:27 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:27 AM local storm reports: 5" near Springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted Wednesday at 12:35 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:35 AM 19 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Not going to drone on about it anymore but this is the worst modeling bust inside of 12 hours I can remember outside of a severe weather bust or two. Radar estimates have me at .1” QPF which is 1/4 the lowest amount any model had me at even as if 06z this morning. . Do you remember the Tulsa "Donut Hole" last year?! lol where it was snowing all around Tulsa but never in Tulsa?! That was the absolute worst and depressing! I can deal with 4 inches, if that ends up verifying for Tulsa. My hubby has about a quarter of an inch of ice on his truck windows underneath the snow, which by far, makes this "storm" much more dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted Wednesday at 12:38 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:38 AM 9 minutes ago, Chinook said: local storm reports: 5" near Springfield SGF reported 3.5" at 6:00, just a stunning bust. The 00Z NMB last night was almost 12 inches. Hard to comprehend how everything missed that badly 12 hours from the start of the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted Wednesday at 12:45 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:45 AM SGF reported 3.5" at 6:00, just a stunning bust. The 00Z NMB last night was almost 12 inches. Hard to comprehend how everything missed that badly 12 hours from the start of the event. I have a screenshot of the most recent HRRR run at 7 this morning still showing 9” for Tulsa and I have MAYBE 1” on the ground at my house. As frustrating as it is for someone who loves big weather events, it’s one of the reasons I love it so much. As much as people want to think we have it figured out, there’s always reminders like this that Mother Nature will still do what she wants. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Wednesday at 01:07 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:07 AM 17 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: I have a screenshot of the most recent HRRR run at 7 this morning still showing 9” for Tulsa and I have MAYBE 1” on the ground at my house. As frustrating as it is for someone who loves big weather events, it’s one of the reasons I love it so much. As much as people want to think we have it figured out, there’s always reminders like this that Mother Nature will still do what she wants. . Below is the Euro from 12z Sunday. 10:1 map. It's still high in places but much more in line with actual results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted Wednesday at 01:09 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:09 AM 1 minute ago, MoWeatherguy said: Below is the Euro from 12z Sunday. 10:1 map. It's still high in places but much more in line with actual results. Yeah the issue with that is at 10:1 that would have still had me at .43"qpf and I have a quarter of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Wednesday at 01:41 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:41 AM 30 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Yeah the issue with that is at 10:1 that would have still had me at .43"qpf and I have a quarter of that. Just a screwed up modeling storm. Not sure what they were seeing that didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted Wednesday at 02:07 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:07 AM 34 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Just a screwed up modeling storm. Not sure what they were seeing that didn't happen. Dry air at 2,000 feet, and then at 12-14,000 ft killed the forecast in all likelihood. It didn't show up until you looked at the Euro runs yesterday and then the HRRR runs last night. Hidden in plain sight. But in all reality, it is very hard to get a >10" snowstorm out in this part of the country. The numbers being put on the street by models and others yesterday were surreal. In some way, it felt like a bad troll job. The synoptic setup of having arctic air come in ~12 hours before the event will always cause issues because the initial cold air advection in those airmasses can be quite powerful. Having done some case study work on this, most big snowfalls in this part of the country have had 24-48 hours of cold in place before the snow begins. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Wednesday at 02:18 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:18 AM 7 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Dry air at 2,000 feet, and then at 12-14,000 ft. It didn't start showing up until you looked at the Euro runs yesterday, and then the HRRR runs last night. Hidden in plain sight. Ok I appreciate the reply. I've not heard that anywhere yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Wednesday at 02:36 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 02:36 AM 15 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Dry air at 2,000 feet, and then at 12-14,000 ft killed the forecast in all likelihood. It didn't show up until you looked at the Euro runs yesterday and then the HRRR runs last night. Hidden in plain sight. But in all reality, it is very hard to get a >10" snowstorm out in this part of the country. The numbers being put on the street by models and others yesterday were surreal. In some way, it felt like a bad troll job. The synoptic setup of having arctic air come in ~12 hours before the event will always cause issues because the initial cold air advection in those airmasses can be quite powerful. Having done some case study work on this, most big snowfalls in this part of the country have had 24-48 hours of cold in place before the snow begins. In addition, it's difficult to get big snowfall in this region without some type of storm system. There was nothing at the surface. The system at the 500 MB level was not impressive and the 700MB winds were from the SW. There was more of a system at the 850 MB level to help with lift at that level. So the entire system was based on the 700 MB and 850 MB response. There was always going to be more QPF squeezed out in the persistent bands of snow and where they set up which tied in with where the various fronts were. With that being said, the GFS/NAM are almost always too moist and generate too much QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Wednesday at 02:47 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:47 AM 5 minutes ago, JoMo said: In addition, it's difficult to get big snowfall in this region without some type of storm system. There was nothing at the surface. The system at the 500 MB level was not impressive and the 700MB winds were from the SW. There was more of a system at the 850 MB level to help with lift at that level. So the entire system was based on the 700 MB and 850 MB response. There was always going to be more QPF squeezed out in the persistent bands of snow and where they set up which tied in with where the various fronts were. With that being said, the GFS/NAM are almost always too moist and generate too much QPF. Yah I've often thought that as well, about the lack of a surface low tracking to our south. Along with the lack of cold air already in place. We had a classic low pressure back in the January storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Wednesday at 04:24 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 04:24 AM Looks like around 7" or so total here. Kind of hard to tell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now