MUWX Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Springfield afternoon AFD is a great read.... because they basically admit that they have no idea what is going to happen. Stunning level of uncertainty less than 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Temps continue to remain about 2-3 degrees below guidance here. I am below freezing now for the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, MUWX said: Springfield afternoon AFD is a great read.... because they basically admit that they have no idea what is going to happen. Stunning level of uncertainty less than 12 hours out. Yeah, I haven't really liked the probabilistic based forecasting since they started it. I think it's unnecessarily complicated for most people to understand. So when they start throwing out the various percentages I tend to kind of tune it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Go ahead and sign me up for the 18z GFS for next Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 29 and thunder snow. EDIT: And now it's a sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Got some great Thunder sleet around 4:30AM this morning in Tulsa. Roads are ok for now, mostly it's slushy from the sleet. My concern is that by 5PM today, they are going to start hardening and become really slick. I'll try to upload an awesome video I got of the thundersleet. You don't see the flash because I just missed it, but I got the BOOM., It was within a mile of me and set off car alarms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 12z models less favorable for weekend and next week. It is one run, but knowing our luck... haven't looked at ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Well it looks like all eyes on Tuesday at this point. Potential for extremely cold temperatures accompanied with precipitation. Combined with high snow ratios is leading to some robust snow totals on the models. We'll see how this trends as we get closer. Euro, ICON and Canadian models seem to have same idea with GFS differing a bit depending on run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I will absolutely have what the 12Z GFS is having for next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 This was the last frame of the 06Z Euro run. Included kuchera snow totals. 8-10 inches for most of us with more snow to come. Will eagerly await the 12z EURO run. Would love to see the GFS shift SW to fall in line with the Canadian, Euro and Icon. If those other 3 hold, then it's likely the GFS will cave. Almost reaching blizzard criteria in a few areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, StormChazer said: This was the last frame of the 06Z Euro run. Included kuchera snow totals. 8-10 inches for most of us with more snow to come. Will eagerly await the 12z EURO run. Would love to see the GFS shift SW to fall in line with the Canadian, Euro and Icon. If those other 3 hold, then it's likely the GFS will cave. Almost reaching blizzard criteria in a few areas. Will you post the 12 Z models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Here are the kuckera totals of the big 3 from 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Tues does look interesting. Those 45-50kt 700 MB SW winds on the Euro up and over a very cold airmass. Still a lot of ways this could fail though. EDIT: Also some of the early 18z models are coming in a bit more robust with the snow in some areas Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Well well, look who is now in line with location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Being in the bullseye 5 days out, what could go wrong? right? right? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The hype for this storm is already getting out hand. How many times over the last 5 - 10 years have been in a similar stop only to get up getting close to nothing? Feels like a lot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Yeah I'm being cautious on this one till Sunday as it could come in much drier and/or further north. Tho it's unlikely to be another 34 deg and rain scenario for my area like this last system was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 32 minutes ago, MUWX said: The hype for this storm is already getting out hand. How many times over the last 5 - 10 years have been in a similar stop only to get up getting close to nothing? Feels like a lot. 59 minutes ago, JoMo said: Being in the bullseye 5 days out, what could go wrong? right? right? Yep. I am being very cautious. I do like the trend late Saturday though. Shall see if that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 I'll take the 00z ICON for Sat night. Farther south than the 00z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 GFS just doesn't want to get on board yet on the location. Location being Tulsa. I don't need to see half this board get 6+ inches and we get a dusting. Let's see what the noon run says today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Here was the 06Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12Z Icon normal 10:1 snow ratios. You can practically double these numbers because it will be teens to possibly single digits while snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This is real #LOCKITIN stuff right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Part (although not much) of the reason for the ICON's epic numbers is because it lays down a nice snow late tomorrow into Sunday morning, too. Snow upon snow... Things have been pretty consistent. Something has to go awry. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Latest Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I spy a blizzard on the Euro.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 With this being an arctic wave and the super high SLR's those Euro kuchera numbers may not be that far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 12z Euro was pretty similar to the 00z last night with snow amounts and location. It's snowing in the teens and single digits in some areas so the Kuchera amounts are probably closer to reality. Although I am concerned about the overall width of the main band. It all depends on how the 700 MB winds behave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 The 18z NAM is back to generating some snow Sat evening/night. Some 2-3" amount along the MO/AR border area in NW AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This is a forecast if I've ever seen one for next Tuesday..Cloudy with snow showers becoming a steady accumulating snow later on. Very cold. High 16F. Winds NNE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 3 to 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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