The Waterboy Posted Monday at 07:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:49 PM 22 minutes ago, JoMo said: The 18z HRRR is shifting farther south again with NE OK being the main target area instead of SE KS. 14” in Bentonville. Wow… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted Monday at 08:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:13 PM NAM came south again too. NEOK bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Monday at 08:17 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 08:17 PM 18z NAM is more juicy. 4.2" of 10:1 on the 12z and 10.1" on the 18z at Tulsa. Interesting band of snow popping up before midnight tonight as well along the KS/MO border. And it's colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted Monday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:17 PM NAM had 12-15 inches across the four state region. That snow will be around for a while with the cold that settles in over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 08:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:49 PM Both high and low res NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted Monday at 08:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:52 PM What is the Kuchera initializing snow ratios at on the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Monday at 08:58 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 08:58 PM 4 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said: What is the Kuchera initializing snow ratios at on the NAM? 15:1 down near Neosho when the snow starts, increasing to 16-17:1 and ending at 18:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 09:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:03 PM Latest RDPS. There is a definite trend here. The HHR, NAM & RDPS are all signialing the same solution. A southern shift of the heavy band into our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Monday at 09:07 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 09:07 PM 18z ICON shifted south a bit but it still has that double band thing going with increased QPF in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted Monday at 09:26 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:26 PM Yeah this is shaping up to being a once in a decade type event. Possibly comparable to the Feb 9th, 2011 storm that dumped 2+ feet over NE OK and NW AR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 09:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:36 PM TSA's graphics updating to include higher amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted Monday at 09:55 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:55 PM Pretty cool page from SGF. Has pretty detailed point forecasts for cities in their CWA. Also has the boom or bust feature. Pretty crazy that a bust in the Joplin area is 7-8 inches. https://www.weather.gov/sgf/winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted Monday at 10:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:04 PM 21z RAP is going gangbusters... it is very unusual to see precip actually increase on the models in the leadup to the event. Usually it is letdown city. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Monday at 10:16 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:16 PM 10 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said: 21z RAP is going gangbusters... it is very unusual to see precip actually increase on the models in the leadup to the event. Usually it is letdown city. RAP with an 18" lollipop over Benton Co. Holy smokes! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted Monday at 10:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:34 PM I'm finally letting myself buy in now that we are 12ish hours from the start and trends are increasing totals if anything. Looking like it's going to be the biggest snow since Feb 2011 followed by deep, deep cold. Hope everybody gets the goods and enjoys this once in every 15- or 20-year type event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted Monday at 11:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:19 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted Tuesday at 01:51 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:51 AM 2 hours ago, OKTWISTER said: Its been a long time since I have seen the DSP map maxed out like that with the snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted Tuesday at 02:08 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:08 AM Looks like the 3 KM NAM went back north just a smidge. Still widespread 8-12" for most here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Tuesday at 02:18 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:18 AM 9 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said: Looks like the 3 KM NAM went back north just a smidge. Still widespread 8-12" for most here: That model really ramped up totals over NWA from it's 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted Tuesday at 02:44 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:44 AM Man, all the major short range convective models are murdering much of NE OK, SW MO, and NW AR. So crazy to see this the night before the event. (do note the two 00z WRF runs weren't even finished running thru at the time of posting) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Tuesday at 02:52 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:52 AM It is crazy. I've never seen it before. Just gotta play the game now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted Tuesday at 03:03 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:03 AM I think you could draw a rough oval from independence to tulsa to mountain home to springfield to pittsburg and say anyone inside that could is looking at 8-12"+ depending on where the heaviest bands verify. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Tuesday at 03:26 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 03:26 AM Darn, back down to 5-14" with 10" expected here. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/?zoom=SGF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Tuesday at 03:30 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:30 AM 4 minutes ago, JoMo said: Darn, back down to 5-14" with 10" expected here. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/?zoom=SGF WHAT A BUST! XD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Tuesday at 03:34 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:34 AM Icon targeting the same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted Tuesday at 03:45 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:45 AM Notable reduction in QPF on a lot of the 0z models right after the increase on the 18z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Tuesday at 03:48 AM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 03:48 AM 2 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Notable reduction in QPF on a lot of the 0z models right after the increase on the 18z runs 700 MB winds veer quicker, kind of like what the Euro has been showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted Tuesday at 03:54 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:54 AM At this point the only real fail scenarios will be seen thru nowcasting. #1. A stronger warm nose shows up cutting down on the snow turning it into one big sleet storm for a good portion of the event. #2. A stronger than anticipated dry slot cutting off moisture altogether. There's still a chance these totals get halved by morning but its looking less likely overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted Tuesday at 04:03 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:03 AM The mood here soured quickly…. what happened??? Edit: 03z RAP only shows 13” for me versus the 18” on the 21z. Let’s not throw out the baby with the bath water. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted Tuesday at 04:06 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:06 AM I dont know that moods soured but the short term trends arent QUITE as favorable as after the 18z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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