StormChazer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GFS doesn't give Tulsa sleet from 9AM to 5PM this run. All snow. Great trend. Now if only that really heavy band could sink south by about ~30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 12:52 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:52 AM 06Z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 12:52 AM Share Posted Monday at 12:52 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Monday at 02:02 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 02:02 AM Good to see the 00z HRRR pushed the Arctic front farther south compared to the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 02:14 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:14 AM 11 minutes ago, JoMo said: Good to see the 00z HRRR pushed the Arctic front farther south compared to the 18z. Yeah but I’m not buying that huge area of freezing rain with a nearly stationary boundary. NAM is starting to come in and already looking like that sleet line is further south. That’s good news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Monday at 02:19 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 02:19 AM 3 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Yeah but I’m not buying that huge area of freezing rain with a nearly stationary boundary. NAM is starting to come in and already looking like that sleet line is further south. That’s good news! Yeah the 00z NAM is going to be farther south and maybe a bit slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted Monday at 02:28 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:28 AM Doubled QPF/snowfall totals for places just north of Tulsa like Bville, loving the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Monday at 02:34 AM Share Posted Monday at 02:34 AM 4 minutes ago, schoeppeya said: Doubled QPF/snowfall totals for places just north of Tulsa like Bville, loving the trend. Yah nice trend for us here in Benton Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Monday at 03:04 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 03:04 AM The 00z ICON ended up farther south as well. 00z RDPS moved slightly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted Monday at 03:27 AM Share Posted Monday at 03:27 AM One trend to watch is the positioning of the 850 front. The HRRR hints at it becoming more NE-SW oriented due to warm air advection with the low to the southwest, as opposed to W-E as some of the other models have it. The result becomes a big hit in S KS/NC OK, with more sleet & freezing rain in NE OK & SW MO, before eventually changing to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Monday at 03:54 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 03:54 AM 00z GFS is a smidge farther south and a bit slower. I'm starting to think this may actually happen now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted Monday at 04:01 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:01 AM ICON and RDPS is wanting to make a lot of folks on this board happy tonight. NAM and GFS coming in heavy & slightly shifting south a bit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted Monday at 04:02 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:02 AM Hard to draw up a better run than that GFS run for southern Missouri this close to the start of an event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted Monday at 04:06 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:06 AM Yeah people do not want to be out along US 60 and I-44 Tuesday night between SE KS, Joplin, and Springfield, possibly even back towards Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Monday at 04:11 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 04:11 AM 8 minutes ago, MUWX said: Hard to draw up a better run than that GFS run for southern Missouri this close to the start of an event Yeah, I doubt the heavy band parks over Joplin like that, but that's a dream run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted Monday at 04:35 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:35 AM Even the RAP is slamming SW MO and SE KS and the system might not even be fully moved out yet at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 05:20 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:20 AM Here are what all the 0Z runs give downtown Tulsa in Kuchera amounts... GFS: 8.0 Inches Canadian: 11 inches ICON: 15 inches EURO: 5 inches (The 18Z run was also 5 inches). Suffice it to say, other than the EURO and the high res NAM, everything else is looking great. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Monday at 05:42 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 05:42 AM 00z Euro is going to be quicker with the system and the 700 MB winds veer west quicker so less precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted Monday at 11:45 AM Share Posted Monday at 11:45 AM 6 hours ago, JoMo said: 00z Euro is going to be quicker with the system and the 700 MB winds veer west quicker so less precip. 06z Euro keeps this trend up. It feels like a fast outlier compared to the short-term, high-res modeling. Will be interesting to see if there is a shift in trends as we go through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 03:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 03:34 PM 12Z RDPS Canadian(Kuchera) 12Z ICON(10:1) 12Z NAM(Kuchera) 12Z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted Monday at 04:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:13 PM Models are locked into a major event for pretty much everybody NE of OKC. Still some interesting differences in the heaviest bands which will be almost impossible to predict in advance. Tulsa, Wichita, Joplin, Springfield, Bentonville all look like the potential bullseye areas. The NAM continues to be the outlier and it hasn’t been great for the entire storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 04:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:15 PM 12Z GFS There's still 2 camps right now on the REALLY heavy band. A few have it here like GFS, and a few have it go from Tulsa to Fayetteville. There's 2 distinct cutoffs. The heavy band to the moderate band and then the moderate to practically nothing. I'm inclined to side with the GFS and Euro(much to my dismay) which keeps the really heavy band just to our north, as opposed to the Candian and ICON which slams us. I'll eagerly await the noon Euro. At the end of the day, models can only do so much. Trying to figure out where the heavy band will set up down to the very mile marker, just isn't reasonable. 20 miles is the difference between 5 inches and 11 on here, and that's impossible to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 04:17 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:17 PM 2 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: Models are locked into a major event for pretty much everybody NE of OKC. Still some interesting differences in the heaviest bands which will be almost impossible to predict in advance. Tulsa, Wichita, Joplin, Springfield, Bentonville all look like the potential bullseye areas. The NAM continues to be the outlier and it hasn’t been great for the entire storm. The NAM has been downright disrespectful with this storm. Other than being all over the place, it really exaggerates the have and have-nots. If you aren't in that heavy band, it's fairly lackluster. I'll continue to throw it out until we get within the range of the hourly HRRR and then see what we are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted Monday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:22 PM 15z RAP drops between 0.75 to 1” QPF in a swath from far SE KS, NE OK, SW MO, into NW AR. Wichita NWS mentions ratios 18:1 - 20:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:24 PM I will say, that is looking like blizzard criteria on the GFS around 3:00PM in Tulsa and points north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted Monday at 04:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:39 PM 14 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I will say, that is looking like blizzard criteria on the GFS around 3:00PM in Tulsa and points north. I think blizzard conditions are a lock but I don’t see anyone hitting the 3 hour sustained wind criteria for it to actually be upgraded to a blizzard warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:34 PM Here is our 12Z Euro. Definitely a southern shifts on the beefier amounts, which is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Monday at 06:44 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 06:44 PM Been interesting watching the WPC page showing the expected snow amounts increase upwards over the last few hours. Back to 7-14" range with 12" expected in Joplin. 2 hours ago it was like 5-13" with 10" expected. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/?zoom=SGF EDIT: Updated again. 6-15" with 12" expected. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Monday at 07:26 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 07:26 PM The 18z HRRR is shifting farther south again with NE OK being the main target area instead of SE KS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 07:48 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:48 PM HRRR just went south like JoMo said. Interestingly, this is also with a few hours of sleet and freezing rain in the morning before the full transition to snow around 1:00PM. This run is in the same camp as the Canadian and the ICON favoring the heavy band to move south. So currently we have NAM & EURO VS ICON, Canadian & HRRR. With the GFS somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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