JoMo Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Even though it's far out for the NAM, it did have the 700 MB winds more back to a more southerly direction on the 18z compared to the 12z, lots of warm moist air from the south on the 700 MB temp advection map lifting up and over the cold temps. Also from the Springfield AFD. Useless. >8 inches: 15-80% (lowest near MO/AR border) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I continue to be impressed by the remarkable consistency of the models. Of course, fine details are being worked out and changing from run to run (and model to model), but this has been locked in for several days now. Tomorrow will be inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 29 minutes ago, JoMo said: Even though it's far out for the NAM, it did have the 700 MB winds more back to a more southerly direction on the 18z compared to the 12z, lots of warm moist air from the south on the 700 MB temp advection map lifting up and over the cold temps. Also from the Springfield AFD. Useless. >8 inches: 15-80% (lowest near MO/AR border) Also, put me on the list of those that find the probabilities a waste of my time and confusing to the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I am wondering how well sampled the storm system is. Should know by 06z I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Quick guess would say we got about an inch here in Owasso. Very pretty & quiet. Visibility definitely went down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Springfield updated their watch. They are now calling for 7-14 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 46 minutes ago, StormChazer said: Quick guess would say we got about an inch here in Owasso. Very pretty & quiet. Visibility definitely went down. Really coming down here as well. Windy. Maybe a quick 0.5-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Posting all the 0Z runs to get a consensus. Canadian, 14 inches at my house, yes, please. ICON Euro GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 It's wild seeing almost 12-24" of snow over your house and it's for one event that isn't 360 hours out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Im still waiting for Lucy to pull the football on this. Might come down to the day of. I remember someone talking about warm air intrusion in the upper levels turning this into a sleet storm. Fingers crossed for no doughnut holes either. That one over the Tulsa Metro a while back was insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Nice waking up to a winter storm watch. ”3-8 inches”. I guess that narrows it down huh? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The NAM is much farther north. When should we pay attention to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The NAM is much farther north. When should we pay attention to it? It’s been TERRIBLE this year outside of 24 hours and even then, still not good.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 10 minutes ago, ouamber said: The NAM is much farther north. When should we pay attention to it? Well since it completely plasters my backyard I would say now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Canadian has been king this winter. It did fantastic during the big snow back in Jan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Here is the official SGF graphic... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GFS an outlier on temps at this point with highs 10ish degrees higher for Tulsa on Wednesday and Thursday than the other models . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Good to see the Euro still on board for a nice hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 This is really the battle going on for snow totals. Massive difference at noon Tuesday. The Euro is 11 degrees colder than the NAM. 2 days out from now, that's a pretty large discrepancy. The GFS sides with the NAM temps, the Canadian and ICON side with the EURO. I personally think when the Canadian and Euro are in agreement, it tends to be the outcome. I said it the other day, and I'll eat crowe if I'm wrong. But I think this airmass of pure arctic air is so strong at the various heights that it will keep sleet and Freezing rain well south of Tulsa. I think it'll be mostly snow the entire time and Tulsa and points north get 6-12. Just my weenie two cents. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Springfield going with a warning this early is a little surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, MUWX said: Springfield going with a warning this early is a little surprising It is a bit early, but 6-10" with 14" in snow bands seems reasonable although their southern counties could bust if there's movement north of the heaviest snow. EDIT: 18z NAM continues the slow creep northward with the heaviest amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 NAM still continues to be the overall outlier compared to pretty much every other model. Let’s hope it’s wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 14 minutes ago, The Waterboy said: NAM still continues to be the overall outlier compared to pretty much every other model. Let’s hope it’s wrong. If NAM is right me and you are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: If NAM is right me and you are screwed. Yes we are. I’m not convinced it’s right. Way too much sleet to start. 18z RDPS going to look good for us which is the trend we want to see continue. EDIT: Looks like the ICON will be solid too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 RDPS is obliterating Tulsa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 RDPS and ICON smash NE OK and NW AR. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 ICON RDPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 And the 18z GFS shifted back south a tiny bit so that's good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, JoMo said: And the 18z GFS shifted back south a tiny bit so that's good. Definitely a step towards the Icon/Canadian. Still about ten degrees warmer which seems like a significant difference at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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