JoMo Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 18Z RDPS and ICON also giving snowfall on the backside of the system Sat night. The 18z ICON has shifted south a tad with the Tues system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 A foot of pure powder IMBY according to the 18Z GFS (Kuchera) I would gladly take half of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I am pretty hesitant to trust Kuchera here, or honestly, ever. Higher wind gusts cause fracturing of dendrites, and can result in lower ratio's than temperatures might indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 00z Canadian and ICON went bonkers over the hwy 60 corridor in OK/MO with 20+ inches in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 23 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: 00z Canadian and ICON went bonkers over the hwy 60 corridor in OK/MO with 20+ inches in spots. The temperatures that the Canadian shows are epic. This would be Feb 2021 like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’m not sure I’m buying that it’s going to be 10 degrees and freezing rain in Tulsa on Tuesday. Maybe that’s the weather weenie in me, but that air mass seems too strong to be that shallow. We are 3 days out from the onset of this storm and it is still dumping some insane snowfall totals across people on this board…12-24 inches of snow is absolutely unbelievable(probably because it is) numbers Noon runs should tell us alot today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On another note. The NAM and HRR are beginning to show tonight’s system over performing. 2-4 inches on the NAM! 1-3 on the HRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I keep waiting for the football to be yanked away, but it hasn't happened yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Models do seem to be picking up on more of a warm nose, which could be problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, MUWX said: Models do seem to be picking up on more of a warm nose, which could be problematic. That's the 850 & 700 mb fronts stalling in response to the low pressure developing to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Not sure what to say....30 inches of snow???? No way that verifies but even if it's half of that. Sleet and freezing rain completely eats the snow totals in Tulsa & NW AR or else we'd be in the 6-10 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Canadian 06Z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 A definite southern shift on the Euro. Higher snow totals moved south in addition to moving the sleet and frz rain to the south as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 And a shift farther west with some of the heavier amounts as well. I'm just not certain how wide the bands will be since this is all based on frontogenic forcing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Doug Heady has a generalized 6-12" for much of S KS and S MO. Believes sleet may cause lower totals across OK and AR. More of that area is in the 1-3" or 3-6" band. Higher amounts closer to KS border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Here is all 50 runs of the Euro averaged together. And this is based on a 10:1 ratio. Greater than 3 inches of snow(again, 10:1) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 10 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said: Doug Heady has a generalized 6-12" for much of S KS and S MO. Believes sleet may cause lower totals across OK and AR. More of that area is in the 1-3" or 3-6" band. Higher amounts closer to KS border. I saw that. Seems he is leaning in favor of the GFS and believes the sleet will go pretty far north. I'm no met, but I know the Euro has been very consistent, so I'm siding with it(plus I like it more for me lol.). He also made it clear he's being conservative with his amounts in general across the board and expects to go up, so that's great for everyone here. Still....can't lock this in yet. EVERYTHING has to go PERFECT to get some of these high totals in this part of the country. One thing is off and it falls apart, so I'm still holding my breath for the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 RDPS (Canadian short range) coming into range now showing a very aggressive solution by Tues afternoon into the evening as the storm ramps up. This doesn't account for overnight into Weds... wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 NAM is warmer and not as aggressive on totals or storm progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 WINTER STORM WATCHES out for the SGF CWA: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. There are medium to high chances (50-75%) of snowfall totals exceeding 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Kansas and central, east central, south central, southwest, and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From late Monday night through late Tuesday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I am not sure when they started doing them, but the probabilities in AFDs and watches stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 minutes ago, GSwizzle83 said: WINTER STORM WATCHES out for the SGF CWA: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. There are medium to high chances (50-75%) of snowfall totals exceeding 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Kansas and central, east central, south central, southwest, and west central Missouri. * WHEN...From late Monday night through late Tuesday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes. The watch KC put up is more aggressive. 6-10 is their initial guess for their southern counties 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, MUWX said: I am not sure when they started doing them, but the probabilities in AFDs and watches stinks. It's completely stupid and the public doesn't understand it. 10-60% chance of 6+" is completely useless as well because it goes from a slight chance to likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Wichita issued a winter storm watch, too, and have “moderate to heavy accumulations of greater than 4 inches” in the watch text. Wouldn’t shock me to see that watch get pulled farther west and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Curious to see how far TUL takes their watches. Obviously far NE OK will get a watch, but do they include Tulsa, Rogers, etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I like monitoring their DSP page. It just updated not too long ago here. I do think it will get revised up as we get closer. Betting watches will extend down to I-40 once they issue theirs.https://www.weather.gov/tsa/dsp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, stormdragonwx said: NAM is warmer and not as aggressive on totals or storm progression. I wouldn't take too much stock in the long range NAM that far out. Point in case, here is the 18Z run. Already moving those amounts south and higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18z ICON continues to be a solid hit for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schoeppeya Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Temps after the snow are pretty unbelievable with the models showing the deeper snow further south suggesting Tulsa could have 2 days of single digit highs. Id imagine the typical cold spots like Nowata will have some lows well below zero. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I'll take the 18z Canadian locked in. Thanks. lol Watch these totally back off in the next 36 hours and we get a sleet storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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