MoWeatherguy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I read on another board from a met on there the sampling can be suspect on features over the Baja where this one is coming from, until moving into a better area. It's possible we're seeing better sampling now. More Pacific moisture, better energy, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 00z RDPS with a shift NW as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Here's a model dump of the NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Toss the Icon in there as well, for good measure lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 00z GFS shifted NW as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 9 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z GFS shifted NW as well. Gfs doubled its total liquid over our northern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 GGEM Canadian NW as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if we wake up to some changes to the warning map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 minutes ago, MUWX said: I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if we wake up to some changes to the warning map Me, either. This thing is changing by the hour and will up thru the onset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 34 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: Me, either. This thing is changing by the hour and will up thru the onset. It feels very different, rooting for a NW trend instead of wanting no NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Insane. As mentioned in a prior post, I really hope this isn't Lucy with the football. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 17 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said: Insane. As mentioned in a prior post, I really hope this isn't Lucy with the football. lol Wondering what exactly do you mean by that Charlie Brown reference (assuming it is from that)..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 6 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said: Wondering what exactly do you mean by that Charlie Brown reference (assuming it is from that)..? Things looking really good for a snow storm and then it all falls apart at the last second 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Basically yes its referencing the fact I have seen a really good forecast setup bust as short as 4-6 hours out. e.g. warm air intrusion or excessive dry slotting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 00z Euro moved NW as well but tighter with the gradient in NW Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Warning was moved NW by one county in my area. Now just need a bit more and we’ll hit mine as well. Not often SEMO sees an Ice Storm Warning followed by WSW within the span of a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM held onto Its crazy idea from last night on this morning’s run. Let’s see what the morning runs say here in the next hour. Winter Storm warnings expanded north, almost to Tulsa. Also appears to be a few hours ahead of schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The NAM is gonna NAM. Ultra juicy. Not that anyone would complain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NAM is still a bit juiced this morning. Not that far off though from the latest HRRR. Both support warning criteria across a lot of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Yeah I highly doubt we will get above freezing like what the local TV Mets were saying would happen to limit totals and ratios. It's 9am and just barely over 20 degrees with cloud cover already heavy. Ground will be plenty cold to stick. Modeled HRRR was saying upper 30's right now last night. Not happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 44 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said: NAM is still a bit juiced this morning. Not that far off though from the latest HRRR. Both support warning criteria across a lot of the region. 12z dropping a 12"+ in places across central AR. Almost 6" for our Tulsa friends. Also says I'm gonna get 5" I'd be fine without an absolute plastering. The ice is having a hard enough time melting on side roads from last weekend here. But then, if it really wants to shellack our area.. I'm also A-OK with that. Should be pretty easy to clear this stuff by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 OKC Upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings. I'm sure Tulsa will be the same shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Sraight from the Tulsa NWS page. This should in theory justify them upgrading most of the office area to a Winter Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Another Warning expansion by TUL. Now backs up to the Tulsa metro area. I expect as this snow gets closer, that is when they will pull the trigger on including Tulsa county. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Tulsas warning map doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, given their forecasted snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 7 minutes ago, MUWX said: Tulsas warning map doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, given their forecasted snow map. I think as soon as the snow begins to impact the southern metro area, they will include it. But yeah, I'm surprised they didn't do it when they upgraded Okmulgee County to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, StormChazer said: I think as soon as the snow begins to impact the southern metro area, they will include it. But yeah, I'm surprised they didn't do it when they upgraded Okmulgee County to the south. That kind of defeats the purpose of a warning imo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 18 minutes ago, MUWX said: That kind of defeats the purpose of a warning imo Really weird they didn't slap watches up beforehand. You can always downgrade to a WAA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 OKC Just majorly expanded the warning area. Come on Tulsa, do it already! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Really weird they didn't slap watches up beforehand. You can always downgrade to a WAA! I understand them not putting a watch up because 24 hours ago this wasn’t a watch/warning level event. However, now that there forecasted snow amount is well into warning level, I don’t understand them not issuing a warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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