Chinook Posted Sunday at 12:44 AM Share Posted Sunday at 12:44 AM blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted Sunday at 04:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:23 AM Got to love the GFS. Just when you think it’s locking onto something it pulls the plug. 1/10 storm now mainly an east coast snowstorm with barely any rain making into Arkansas much less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted Sunday at 04:38 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:38 AM last look at this complex storm system for this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted Sunday at 04:45 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:45 AM I think the difference this time from what I can tell is there was no phase on the 00z. I am not great at reading that though so I may be incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Sunday at 05:48 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:48 AM I'm OK with this 5 days out. I obviously want a shift north, but the fact that the EURO is hanging onto a snowstorm in and around our area is a good place to be at this stage. Now we just cross our fingers for a 50 mile shift north and we are COOKING. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted Sunday at 01:26 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:26 PM The winds are getting strong in Kansas, leading to blizzard conditions. There has been some brief lightning (thundersnow) in Kansas. There is snow, sleet, and freezing rain in Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted Sunday at 01:54 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:54 PM 8 hours ago, StormChazer said: I'm OK with this 5 days out. I obviously want a shift north, but the fact that the EURO is hanging onto a snowstorm in and around our area is a good place to be at this stage. Now we just cross our fingers for a 50 mile shift north and we are COOKING. SGF explicitly stating that they expect their forecast area yo remain dry all week. Kinda surprising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted Sunday at 07:32 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:32 PM Finally got a WWA over here at least lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted Sunday at 07:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 07:41 PM Starting to feel depression! Tulsa has gotten the shaft for several years now! This storm goes bonkers in Kansas and Missouri and the storm later this week is gonna go bonkers for Texas! Talk about bad luck...I'm still so bitter about Tulsa's "Donut Hole" last year! (Sorry for Debbie downer post) I was certain this would be a good pattern for us...unbelievable! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Monday at 04:54 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 04:54 AM 00z GFS and 00z GEM didn't look too bad tonight. Nice to see the GFS ensembles come into better agreement as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Monday at 05:00 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:00 AM 4 minutes ago, JoMo said: 00z GFS and 00z GEM didn't look too bad tonight. Nice to see the GFS ensembles come into better agreement as well. Yah if that holds true we could get something measurable around here. Maybe a 2-4 type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted Monday at 05:29 AM Share Posted Monday at 05:29 AM Logically & climatologically speaking I am finding it absurd to think much of central and northeast TX could see over a foot of snow by next weekend. I still expect the models to jog the storm track 50-75 miles more to the north putting the I-44 I-40 corridor in the bullseye in the coming days. I'm waiting for the NAM runs to come in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Monday at 06:28 AM Author Share Posted Monday at 06:28 AM 00z Euro is also improving the look of the 9th/10th system. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:13 PM Last nights runs did 2 things. 1) All the major models now agree on the idea of a major winter storm impacting Texas/Oklahoma in a broad but relatively same area. Beforehand, there was still some discrepancy on whether it would happen or not in the runs. 2) There was a northward shift in the precip amounts, mostly due to a broad area of snow that is expected to develop and push through most of us. These new runs put most of us in the 2-6 inch range. My rule of thumb is it usually takes at least 4 inches to be a truly memorable, nice blanket of snow on everything worth playing in etc. I’m hoping last night’s runs aren’t the needle swinging in the opposite direction only for it to move back south a little more, and instead it is a trend that the afternoon models will reinforce. I’ll continue to post precip maps etc from my weather bell account. If anyone has any requests, let me know and I’ll post it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted Monday at 02:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:41 PM 9 hours ago, stormdragonwx said: Logically & climatologically speaking I am finding it absurd to think much of central and northeast TX could see over a foot of snow by next weekend. I still expect the models to jog the storm track 50-75 miles more to the north putting the I-44 I-40 corridor in the bullseye in the coming days. I'm waiting for the NAM runs to come in. Why? Historically N and NE TX get huge snows from these type set ups. SW trough and coastal surface low with cold air in place equals 6-12" for I-20. OK and AR may get in on this one more than in a typical coastal low event as there is an additional lobe of energy on the NW side of this one. This is similar if a bit colder version of 2/2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Monday at 04:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 04:33 PM 12z GFS continues to moisten up a little more further NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:04 PM GFS more snow, Canadian MUCH more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GSwizzle83 Posted Monday at 05:28 PM Share Posted Monday at 05:28 PM Hi all. Been locked out of my account because I couldn't remember the password, but finally got in. Looking forward to tracking this. Looks like a nice snow for much of the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Monday at 06:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:15 PM 12z Euro. Getting closer. Big hit across a lot of AR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted Monday at 06:33 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:33 PM One thing looks to be apparent, it’ll be a sharp gradient between the have and have-nots. I just want at least 4 in Tulsa. I don’t need 8-12(although I’d love that), just at least 4. Very doable with this setup, but I’d we can shift north a little more over the next 36 hours that’ll make me feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted Monday at 06:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 06:34 PM 1 minute ago, StormChazer said: One thing looks to be apparent, it’ll be a sharp gradient between the have and have-nots. I just want at least 4 in Tulsa. I don’t need 8-12(although I’d love that), just at least 4. Very doable with this setup, but I’d we can shift north a little more over the next 36 hours that’ll make me feel better. Yah same here. That cutoff is concerning and close to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted Monday at 07:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:36 PM Maybe this is just a bias from my days of tracking when I lived in VA... but I feel like right now you'd prefer the models to be a bit south at this point. Certainly shifted north last time once we got within a couple days before the event. Then held steady-ish, though I for sure got way more sleet than expected and much less FZRA (not that I'm complaining) Some of this "Texas is gonna get a foot" seems absurd to me. Surely it has to come north some! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted Monday at 07:54 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:54 PM 17 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Maybe this is just a bias from my days of tracking when I lived in VA... but I feel like right now you'd prefer the models to be a bit south at this point. Certainly shifted north last time once we got within a couple days before the event. Then held steady-ish, though I for sure got way more sleet than expected and much less FZRA (not that I'm complaining) Some of this "Texas is gonna get a foot" seems absurd to me. Surely it has to come north some! I’m not sure we can count on a northern shift. Ensembles are fairly dialed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted Monday at 08:34 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:34 PM 41 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Maybe this is just a bias from my days of tracking when I lived in VA... but I feel like right now you'd prefer the models to be a bit south at this point. Certainly shifted north last time once we got within a couple days before the event. Then held steady-ish, though I for sure got way more sleet than expected and much less FZRA (not that I'm complaining) Some of this "Texas is gonna get a foot" seems absurd to me. Surely it has to come north some! The upper low path is pretty locked in and has been for days. It will dig into N MX tomorrow before kicking out along the MX/US border. As it kicks out a low will form around Brownsville, TX and travel up the coast. This is a pattern that happens every winter and they rarely go north of models. If anything they tend to be suppressed by the Arctic high pressures over the top of them. Y'all could get some snow out of this as the SW trough merges into the Polar jet. The heavy stuff is related to the Gulf low though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted Monday at 09:30 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 09:30 PM 1 hour ago, The Ole Bucket said: Maybe this is just a bias from my days of tracking when I lived in VA... but I feel like right now you'd prefer the models to be a bit south at this point. Certainly shifted north last time once we got within a couple days before the event. Then held steady-ish, though I for sure got way more sleet than expected and much less FZRA (not that I'm complaining) Some of this "Texas is gonna get a foot" seems absurd to me. Surely it has to come north some! Surface low location is pretty locked in. It'll move around a bit but no big changes this close probably. The bigger issues are how far north the snow is able to progress north which depends on the orientation of the system to the southwest and how the digging northern energy phases with it, and how quickly additional northern stream energy cuts off the progress of the moisture streaming north. In the perfect scenario the digging energy causes a part of the trough to tilt negative which slings the precip back farther north and west, which may happen for a brief period if all goes well. Getting the trough to be more neutral would be good as well but it probably won't last long as the additional northern energy will shift the winds behind it back to the north which shuts off the precip, and can be seen pretty dramatically on the 12z Euro snow maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted yesterday at 01:26 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:26 AM Many Mets will tell you to throw out the 06Z and 18Z Euro runs because they don’t have proper data to reflect a successful projection. I’m hoping that’s true because the 18Z euro trended south with the totals giving most of us just 1-2 inches. Crossing fingers for good news in the evening runs tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted yesterday at 02:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:41 AM Latest NAM with more with probably another 3 more hours of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted yesterday at 04:08 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 04:08 AM NW Arkansas is going to get some beefier totals on the 00z GFS but man, that cutoff is sharp to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted yesterday at 04:14 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:14 AM 5 minutes ago, JoMo said: NW Arkansas is going to get some beefier totals on the 00z GFS but man, that cutoff is sharp to the north. Yes it is, and the heavier totals have shifted north the past 3 runs. Still 72 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted yesterday at 05:47 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 05:47 AM 00z Euro is going the wrong way with an even more positively tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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