JoMo Posted November 12, 2024 Share Posted November 12, 2024 Been a pretty warm fall so far this year, let's see what happens this winter. It would be nice to see snow again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocketWX Posted November 14, 2024 Share Posted November 14, 2024 On 11/12/2024 at 3:37 PM, JoMo said: Been a pretty warm fall so far this year, let's see what happens this winter. It would be nice to see snow again. Thanks for starting a new thread! As you mentioned, been a beautiful start to Fall with warm temperatures and welcome rain that is putting a dent in the drought here in SC Kansas. Another wet storm appears likely late Sunday night into Monday with potentially multiple inches of rain! What happens after that is interesting as the first cold air of the season looks possible. I'm even starting to see some fantasy winter storms show up on models. Not concerned with that, but fun to see the season transition. Further, I am liking this wet pattern thus far! If we can keep these systems traversing the plains through winter...could be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted November 20, 2024 Share Posted November 20, 2024 GFS has been pretty consistent with a storm of interest around thanksgiving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted November 27, 2024 Share Posted November 27, 2024 Euro says first snow for the area this weekend. I'm excited as I'm heading into STL for the Thanksgiving holiday with family and to watch Saint Louis Ballet's Nutcracker on Saturday!! A few mood flakes would be great to set the atmosphere for the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 11, 2024 Share Posted December 11, 2024 Zzzzzzzzz being the current trend minus being seasonably cold at least. Its not looking good in the long term this month as it looks to warm back up again. Those wishing for a White Christmas might be a bust, at least for most of us. Edit: Latest Euro came out and wants to hint at snow/ice during Christmas week but it's at the end of the run. Take it with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 17, 2024 Share Posted December 17, 2024 Wake me up when winter actually arrives. Been in this above normal pattern since basically September. Summer never wanted to leave and Winter has been timid to show its face. Hoping that the new year brings a very active Jan/Feb. Merry Christmas everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 18, 2024 Share Posted December 18, 2024 I would just like something to track over a few runs. I feel like I may need to take a break for a few days. Maybe things will look better in the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted December 23, 2024 Share Posted December 23, 2024 Might be something around/after New Year's Day... according to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 24, 2024 Author Share Posted December 24, 2024 The models are aligning with more of a -EPO look as we head into the first week of Jan. Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 00z GFS definitely brings the cold after the new year and seems to be hinting at a few chances for some winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 2 hours ago, NWAflizzard said: 00z GFS definitely brings the cold after the new year and seems to be hinting at a few chances for some winter weather. Check out the 00z Euro. Now that's cold. That's a crazy look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 The 00z Euro was incredible. Latest runs still showing the cold just need some moisture. Hopefully it doesn’t end up snowing in southern Louisiana while we end up with below zero temps. Edit: Will also add that the AO is forecasted to go strongly negative after the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Can’t say I mind this set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 Will take this for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 28, 2024 Author Share Posted December 28, 2024 That's a very cold look on the 18z GFS. All sorts of high latitude blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 18 minutes ago, JoMo said: That's a very cold look on the 18z GFS. All sorts of high latitude blocking. My goodness. I got so distracted by the snow I didn’t look at temps. Has me getting down to -9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted December 28, 2024 Share Posted December 28, 2024 59 minutes ago, NWAflizzard said: My goodness. I got so distracted by the snow I didn’t look at temps. Has me getting down to -9. That's what happens when you anticipate snow and tornadoes on here way too much lol Still, I just hope this S Plains Arctic airmass outbreak actually verifies to start 2025, and for all of TX especially considering how warm the winter has been so far. Although, hasn't been terribly warm down here since December started. The more sig -AO phase projection makes the potential outbreak and how far south it penetrates 100% worth watching even down here going into the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 29, 2024 Share Posted December 29, 2024 GFS is somewhat consistent with a threat next weekend. Looks icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2024 Author Share Posted December 30, 2024 Yeah, it definitely looks cold. 18z even had it reloading. We'll have to see how it all lines out with precip chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormChazer Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I can always count on the Canadian to get my hopes up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 It always makes me nervous to rely on the Canadian. lol. I would’ve rather not seen the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 30, 2024 Author Share Posted December 30, 2024 With the 12z Euro showing central Texas getting more snow than many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 8 hours ago, JoMo said: With the 12z Euro showing central Texas getting more snow than many of us. This upcoming cold is sure to disappoint some of us in the snow area, but at least we'll be in the game for something for awhile. I think it eases mid to late month but then reloads for a final show late month to early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 00z GFS with a nasty ice storm to snow for Northwest Arkansas on the 5th. Southern Missouri gets buried. Maybe a touch further south too this run compared to 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 The Canadian and GFS both have big storms for the area. Looks like someone could get smacked with ice and someone is going to be really upset with how much sleet they get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 31, 2024 Author Share Posted December 31, 2024 The 00z GFS sure is interesting for the Sunday storm. No Northern Plains system to screw things up, a more positive tilt to start which keeps it colder, a weaker system that matures at the right time for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 1 hour ago, NWAflizzard said: 00z GFS with a nasty ice storm to snow for Northwest Arkansas on the 5th. Southern Missouri gets buried. Maybe a touch further south too this run compared to 18z. Interesting to say the least. Indeed must be a lot of sleet/ice mixed in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWAflizzard Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 12z GFS continues to advertise a major winter storm for our area on Sunday. Question I have is if there is blocking then wouldn’t that prevent the storm from cutting like the Euro has been showing. Wouldn’t the GFS solution make more sense? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 31, 2024 Share Posted December 31, 2024 Local News Media in both Arkansas and Oklahoma are going public about the model data now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted Wednesday at 05:04 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:04 AM Euro is still king. GFS and Canadian completely caving to what the euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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