2025-26 Possible El Nino

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

We may be getting a new Nino in 2025, however whether it's Modoki or canonical is yet to be known. The map currently shows a Modoki.

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

https://climateimpactcompany.com/november-2024-enso-outlook-la-nina-could-fail-el-nino-on-the-table-for-later-next-year-2-2/#:~:text=In 2025%2C the ENSO forecast,shifting into an El Nino.

[BarryStantonGBP]

CPAC warming

 

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

Obviously we can have more serious discussions about 2025 in December and beyond, but as of now, using 2024 as a barometer, here's what I personally think (of course, these are very preliminary) will be different next year. Some quirky ideas examined too.

1. I think we're going to see at least an above-average season. Upper 10s in total NSs, upper single digit hurricane count, and 3-5 major hurricanes. I also have a hunch that we're going to see maybe a storm or two end up as being long-tracking major hurricanes from the MDR. Might be a slightly more eastern-based season that this year.

2. I think there will be another major CONUS Gulf landfall this year. Cat 3 or higher. This seems like a characteristic that, unfortunately, is a staple of many recent seasons and is unlikely to change barring any major overarching pattern shifts.

3. This might be the year that the major hurricane landfall drought in Eastern Florida ends. Or....maybe it'll be elsewhere along the CONUS's eastern coastline.

4. A more "normal" season in terms of hurricane timing. Meaning, a fairly weak November and no storms even remotely like Beryl, but late August-early September will be prime time.

5. Our 155+ mph hurricane streak will continue. In fact, I'd wager that we're going to see another destructive Category 5 hurricane somewhere. Maybe not sub-900 mbar, but it reaches a minimum pressure in the 900s.

6. Instead of an I curse, we now have an H curse. Humberto will be the one to watch, and Imelda will be some nothingburger storm in the open ocean.

Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations.