Windspeed Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 Looks like the low-level circulation is going to push down into Honduras. That's a huge break for the Yucatán as far as a more intense hurricane developing. Still, a prolific heavy rain and flood problem for Honduras and Nicaragua. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 At 4 am EST, the NHC upgraded the system to a Tropical Depression... Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been improving. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt. Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression. This is supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which shows a well-defined circulation. The intensity is set to 30 kt based on the Dvorak estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 Potentially devastating flooding for N Honduras similar to Eta/Iota of 2020 and Mitch of 1998 due to extremely slow movement: dire situation there BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 82.6W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Honduras has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for Honduras and the Bay Islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border * The Bay Islands of Honduras A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nineteen was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 82.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This motion should continue through today, bringing the center near the coast of eastern Honduras. The system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 15.7N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 15.7N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 15.9N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 16/0000Z 15.9N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 16/1200Z 15.9N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 17/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 72H 17/1200Z 16.2N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 18/1200Z 18.0N 89.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 19/1200Z 21.7N 91.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Kelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 The Tuesday track shows this over water again but with so much time over land my hope is this thing turns into just a rainmaker going forward. Amazing that this is moving so slow. I just don't see how this thing gets into the Gulf Tuesday AM and is by Florida by Wednesday PM? Is the front/trough coming down from the US just going to pick this thing up and throw it toward Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 Real time trends suggest that the depression has a dual lobe structure. The west lobe is diving WSW and will be inland shortly over Honduras. The eastern lobe is currently stationary east of Nicaragua, but should begin to move WNW. The sloppy structure and close proximity to land makes me think we got away with one here in the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 Here’s the projected rainfall for Honduras, which I’m thinking will end up the big news story from this storm: For comparison, here is the estimated rainfall from the devastating Eta in 2020, which caused horrible river flooding in Honduras and looks pretty similar to the current storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 Starting to really come together just ENE of Honduras coastline. I was hoping it would dive southwards enough to get buried but it looks like it will gain just enough latitude to stay offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 TD 19 has become TS Sara: devastating rainfall in N Honduras and nearby is the main danger: Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024 100 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SARA... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 82.9W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 82.9 West. The system is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion should continue through today, bringing the center near the coast of eastern Honduras. The system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Data from the Air Force Reserve aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible, if the system remains over water. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km) from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Storm Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of mudslides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 14 Share Posted November 14 NHC now calling for Sara to dissipate in the next 4-5 days near the end of its journey across the Yucatan Peninsula. This has to be great news for Florida, although clearly all of the models don't show dissipation. Environmental conditions are conducive for some strengthening during the next couple of days, but the main inhibiting factor is the sprawling structure of the cyclone and its close proximity to land. Given that the system is forecast to pass very close to the northern coast of Honduras, only modest strengthening is suggested by most of the guidance. The NHC intensity forecast calls for some strengthening during the next couple of days, follow by little change in intensity until the system moves over the Yucatan peninsula. It should be noted that a more northern track, could result in additional strengthening, but the global models and most of the intensity guidance does not favor that scenario. The global models indicate that the system will weakening quickly while it moves over the Yucatan peninsula and that the circulation is not likely to survive the passage over the peninsula. Therefore, the new forecast now calls for dissipation by day 5. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 Big fail for GFS/GEFS and to an extent Euro as well. 36 hours ago I was pretty confident this was at the very least going to be a solid ACE-booster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 Big fail for GFS/GEFS and to an extent Euro as well. 36 hours ago I was pretty confident this was at the very least going to be a solid ACE-booster.Tricky forecast. A mere few hundred miles on stall position is the difference between a major hurricane or a weak TS. I was bullish. But look at the upper pattern and environment. It's very explosive. We just got lucky on proximity of the COC tracking into the Honduras coastline. It could still become a hurricane after all if it manages to not push fully inland on this stall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 15 Share Posted November 15 Assuming this story by CNN is accurate, this is very bad news for much of N Honduras being that heavy rains are forecasted to continue for parts of that area the next 24-48 hours: “Tropical Storm Sara is unleashing heavy rainfall in northeastern Honduras, with life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides anticipated through the weekend. Nearly 20 inches of rain had already fallen in parts of Honduras as of Friday morning with more to come.” https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/11/14/weather/tropical-storm-sara-florida-hurricane-season-climate The following from NHC is regarding ADDITIONAL rainfall expected: this when combined with what’s already fallen (mainly in NE Honduras) is unfortunately probably just about as bad as it can get in general for that area due mainly to very slow movement but also warmer than normal SSTs allowing more moisture to be held via higher dewpoints: Here’s the latest NHC storm total forecast: RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches with isolated storm totals around 35 inches area expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Compare that to the prior storm total rainfall forecast: RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected over northern Honduras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 06:52 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:52 PM Flooding in Honduras from Tropical Storm Sara on November 15, 2024 (CREDIT: CNN) https://www.kadn.com/weather/hurricane/tropical-storm-sara-meanders-near-northern-honduras-after-landfall/article_365d0808-9dbc-51d7-90af-7c76b565b5c9.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Friday at 06:55 PM Share Posted Friday at 06:55 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted Friday at 10:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:27 PM Not much radar-based data in the area. From Belize, capturing the far northwest Honduras coast: Maps pretty well to the satellite estimates: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Sunday at 12:40 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 12:40 AM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Monday at 04:36 AM Share Posted Monday at 04:36 AM The last few advisories have been saying isolated total amounts in N Honduras up to 40”!! RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as 40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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