WxWatcher007 Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 The signals for TC genesis have come to fruition so far this November, and our backloaded season is likely to continue with another Caribbean signal, perhaps a significant one, appearing. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea: An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical wave. This system is expected to move slowly westward during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while meandering over the western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Reinhart 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 It appears there will be multiple forces trying to push and pull this system in different directions. The latest GFS pulls it nw then north and ne across the keys. The Euro has a stronger trough digging to the northeast, so the storm gets pulled east first, then a ridge builds in and it goes back west. How quickly it develops and how strong it gets will also factor in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 12Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.4N 81.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 16.11.2024 120 14.4N 81.1W 1002 27 0000UTC 17.11.2024 132 14.3N 80.6W 1001 31 1200UTC 17.11.2024 144 13.9N 80.2W 1001 32 0000UTC 18.11.2024 156 14.3N 80.4W 1000 33 1200UTC 18.11.2024 168 14.8N 80.9W 999 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 The signal continues to ramp up on ensemble suites. Likewise, the 00z GFS rolling in has a hurricane inside three days. This is all likely due to the notable lower surface pressures south of Hispaniola, broad mid-level vorticity along the wave axis, and a robust convective envelope. If the hypothetical TC manages to avoid prolonged land interaction with NE Nicaragua and/or Honduras, this system could become quite strong given the favorable upper environment that should be in place. Any system hanging around the deep WCARIB should be well-ventilated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 00z GFS coming in with a beast...splitting the uprights between Western Cuba and Cancun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 Yowza. S FL got a problem on its hands I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 -0Z ICON and CMC are threats to FL 0Z UKMET: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 16.7N 83.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.11.2024 84 16.6N 83.9W 1003 25 0000UTC 16.11.2024 96 16.4N 84.0W 1001 26 1200UTC 16.11.2024 108 15.7N 83.4W 1001 27 0000UTC 17.11.2024 120 15.3N 82.9W 1001 29 1200UTC 17.11.2024 132 15.4N 83.4W 1002 29 0000UTC 18.11.2024 144 16.3N 84.6W 1002 31 1200UTC 18.11.2024 156 17.8N 86.1W 1001 34 0000UTC 19.11.2024 168 20.7N 86.8W 999 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 Uh.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 riding it^ 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 The operationals were pretty eye-opening last night. Even the ECMWF bombed a 930 mb major. I guess we'll just have to see how fast this system consolidates over the next 48 hours. There is a 24 hour variance between TCG between the two major operationals. The lesser deterministic GEFS still prefers land interaction slowing down any rapid intensification. Obviously, we don't even have an invest labeled yet, but it just goes to show how favorable the environment will become for the potential TC if it does form and stays over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 Nothing to see here. Just a major landfalling on FL West Coast a week before Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 Deja Vu intensifies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 12z GFS not backing down. Landfall as CAT 3 just south of Fort Meyers, with it traversing the Florida peninsula in less than 6 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 This still requires a ton of bad luck for this to LF in Florida. The amount of looping around that goes on in most ensembles down there would require nothing short of a miracle for this not to landfall somewhere and then also split the Cuba/Yucatan gap as well as somehow be a major hurricane 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 The track of this system is very unclear. Where, exactly, it develops and stalls will determine the direction in which it tracks. If this point is a hair farther east, the storm gets pulled east before turning back to the west and nw. If this point is a hair farther west, it doesn't get pulled east, but instead heads west/nw into the Yucatan. The latest op Euro has flipped from the former to the latter. The new run develops the storm farther west and south, so it scrapes Honduras and moves westward into the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The track of this system is very unclear. Where, exactly, it develops and stalls will determine the direction in which it tracks. If this point is a hair farther east, the storm gets pulled east before turning back to the west and nw. If this point is a hair farther west, it doesn't get pulled east, but instead heads west/nw into the Yucatan. The latest op Euro has flipped from the former to the latter. The new run develops the storm farther west and south, so it scrapes Honduras and moves westward into the Yucatan. yeah, these systems are interesting because they are sitting there in the gyre waiting for something to pull them out in some direction. Looks like most models have it going NW and then E right now, but I could also see a Central America landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 2 hours ago, CCHurricane said: 12z GFS not backing down. Landfall as CAT 3 just south of Fort Meyers, with it traversing the Florida peninsula in less than 6 hours. Would be an extreme wind event for S Florida due to fast motion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 All things equal, 12Z EURO also showing southern FL landfall, albeit in a much better location and with a weaker system. Southern FL is mostly Wildlife Area vs. property development further North, yet this thing will be ripping from west to east in terms of forward momentum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 10 minutes ago, CCHurricane said: All things equal, 12Z EURO also showing southern FL landfall, albeit in a much better location and with a weaker system. Southern FL is mostly Wildlife Area vs. property development further North, yet this thing will be ripping from west to east in terms of forward momentum. If that were to verify it would still bring a 980 mb eye over downtown Miami. That would cause quite a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 15 minutes ago, CCHurricane said: All things equal, 12Z EURO also showing southern FL landfall, albeit in a much better location and with a weaker system. Southern FL is mostly Wildlife Area vs. property development further North, yet this thing will be ripping from west to east in terms of forward momentum. The landmass there is least wide, and also flat wetlands. SST's are also quite warm. This combination won't allow for much --if any--- weakening before affecting the densely populated areas of Miami dade county. It's one run, but I'd caution against this as an optimistic scenario, especially if it comes in stronger at that angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 The latest Euro Weeklies for 11/18-24 show this well: 4 x climo (~4-5) closer to normal ACE of a month to 1.5 months earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 Why are we dissecting 204 hour panels for a storm that hasn't formed yet and is forecast to behave like a drunken frat guy in the Caribbean for 3 days before eventually, possibly emerging into the Gulf? 1 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 geefus unleashes a monster… high potential here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 nice anticyclone and there’s some developing convection on satellite. i imagine after a TD forms in a day or 2, it’s off to the races unless it moves over land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 1 hour ago, beanskip said: Why are we dissecting 204 hour panels for a storm that hasn't formed yet and is forecast to behave like a drunken frat guy in the Caribbean for 3 days before eventually, possibly emerging into the Gulf? That’s fair, especially so if it was just one run in isolation. GFS is getting persistent with signaling a strong TC into the Gulf and landfalling on FL West Coast next week. 18z has a 2 or 3 landfalling just north of Crystal River next Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 1 hour ago, beanskip said: Why are we dissecting 204 hour panels for a storm that hasn't formed yet and is forecast to behave like a drunken frat guy in the Caribbean for 3 days before eventually, possibly emerging into the Gulf? Probably because it's the end of the season with nothing else going on, and we are a board full of weather enthusiasts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cholorob Posted November 12 Share Posted November 12 All things equal, 12Z EURO also showing southern FL landfall, albeit in a much better location and with a weaker system. Southern FL is mostly Wildlife Area vs. property development further North, yet this thing will be ripping from west to east in terms of forward momentum. This is not a good take. The southern tip of Florida is very thin and means all of greater Miami and Key Largo/Isla Morada would be at threat. That is far more people to suffer damage than anything between Naples and Tampa.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 I am bullish on this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 13 Share Posted November 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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