Tropical Storm Sara

[Windspeed]

Looks like the low-level circulation is going to push down into Honduras. That's a huge break for the Yucatán as far as a more intense hurricane developing. Still, a prolific heavy rain and flood problem for Honduras and Nicaragua.

[RU848789]

At 4 am EST, the NHC upgraded the system to a Tropical Depression...

Tropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
400 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

The satellite presentation of the system has gradually been 
improving.  The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB are both T-2.0/30 kt.  Based on the subjective Dvorak estimates 
and the improvement in the convective structure noted on satellite 
imagery, the system is upgraded to a tropical depression.  This is 
supported by data from the Indian Oceansat scatterometer, which 
shows a well-defined circulation.  The intensity is set to 30 kt 
based on the Dvorak estimates.

[GaWx]

Potentially devastating flooding for N Honduras similar to Eta/Iota of 2020 and Mitch of 1998 due to extremely slow movement: dire situation there

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nineteen Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND 
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 82.6W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Hurricane Watch for
Honduras and the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras form Punta Sal eastward to the 
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Nicaragua from Puerto Cabezas northward 
to the Honduras/Nicaragua Border 

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression 
Nineteen was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 82.6 West. 
The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This 
motion should continue through today, bringing the center near the 
coast of eastern Honduras. The system is expected to meander near 
the northern coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some strengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become 
a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 
to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area 
expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to 
widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic 
flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra 
La Esperanza.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 15.7N  82.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 15.7N  83.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 15.9N  84.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 36H  16/0000Z 15.9N  85.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  16/1200Z 15.9N  85.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  17/0000Z 16.0N  86.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  17/1200Z 16.2N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  18/1200Z 18.0N  89.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  19/1200Z 21.7N  91.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Kelly

[michaelmantis]

The Tuesday track shows this over water again but with so much time over land my hope is this thing turns into just a rainmaker going forward. 

Amazing that this is moving so slow. I just don't see how this thing gets into the Gulf Tuesday AM and is by Florida by Wednesday PM?

Is the front/trough coming down from the US just going to pick this thing up and throw it toward Florida. 

[Normandy]

Real time trends suggest that the depression has a dual lobe structure.  The west lobe is diving WSW and will be inland shortly over Honduras.  The eastern lobe is currently stationary east of Nicaragua, but should begin to move WNW.  The sloppy structure and close proximity to land makes me think we got away with one here in the US

[GaWx]

 Here’s the projected rainfall for Honduras, which I’m thinking will end up the big news story from this storm:

For comparison, here is the estimated rainfall from the devastating Eta in 2020, which caused horrible river flooding in Honduras and looks pretty similar to the current storm

[Normandy]

Starting to really come together just ENE of Honduras coastline.  I was hoping it would dive southwards enough to get buried but it looks like it will gain just enough latitude to stay offshore

[GaWx]

TD 19 has become TS Sara: devastating rainfall in N Honduras and nearby is the main danger:

Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192024
100 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SARA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 82.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 50 MI...85  KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was 
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 
15.7 North, longitude 82.9 West. The system is moving toward the 
west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion should continue through 
today, bringing the center near the coast of eastern Honduras. The 
system is expected to meander near the northern coast of Honduras 
late Friday and through the weekend.

Data from the Air Force Reserve aircraft indicate that the maximum 
sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some strengthening is possible, if the system remains over 
water.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (115 km)
from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 
999 mb (29.50 inches).

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10
to 20 inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area
expected over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to
widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic
flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra
La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, Tropical Storm Sara is
expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized totals
around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in areas
of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the potential of
mudslides.

[RU848789]

NHC now calling for Sara to dissipate in the next 4-5 days near the end of its journey across the Yucatan Peninsula.  This has to be great news for Florida, although clearly all of the models don't show dissipation.  

Environmental conditions are conducive for some strengthening during the next couple of days, but the main inhibiting factor is the sprawling structure of the cyclone and its close proximity to land. Given that the system is forecast to pass very close to the northern coast of Honduras, only modest strengthening is suggested by most of the guidance. The NHC intensity forecast calls for some strengthening during the next couple of days, follow by little change in intensity until the system moves over the Yucatan peninsula. It should be noted that a more northern track, could result in additional strengthening, but the global models and most of the intensity guidance does not favor that scenario. The global models indicate that the system will weakening quickly while it moves over the Yucatan peninsula and that the circulation is not likely to survive the passage over the peninsula. Therefore, the new forecast now calls for dissipation by day 5.