Tropical Storm Sara

[WxWatcher007]

The signals for TC genesis have come to fruition so far this November, and our backloaded season is likely to continue with another Caribbean signal, perhaps a significant one, appearing.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Mon Nov 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central and Western Caribbean Sea:
An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of 
Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea is associated with a 
tropical wave. This system is expected to move slowly westward 
during the next few days, and environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression could form 
late this week or this weekend while meandering over the western 
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


Forecaster Reinhart

[hawkeye_wx]

It appears there will be multiple forces trying to push and pull this system in different directions.  The latest GFS pulls it nw then north and ne across the keys.  The Euro has a stronger trough digging to the northeast, so the storm gets pulled east first, then a ridge builds in and it goes back west.  How quickly it develops and how strong it gets will also factor in.

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.4N  81.1W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 16.11.2024  120  14.4N  81.1W     1002            27
    0000UTC 17.11.2024  132  14.3N  80.6W     1001            31
    1200UTC 17.11.2024  144  13.9N  80.2W     1001            32
    0000UTC 18.11.2024  156  14.3N  80.4W     1000            33
    1200UTC 18.11.2024  168  14.8N  80.9W      999            33

[Floydbuster]

 

[Windspeed]

The signal continues to ramp up on ensemble suites. Likewise, the 00z GFS rolling in has a hurricane inside three days. This is all likely due to the notable lower surface pressures south of Hispaniola, broad mid-level vorticity along the wave axis, and a robust convective envelope. If the hypothetical TC manages to avoid prolonged land interaction with NE Nicaragua and/or Honduras, this system could become quite strong given the favorable upper environment that should be in place. Any system hanging around the deep WCARIB should be well-ventilated.

[CCHurricane]

00z GFS coming in with a beast...splitting the uprights between Western Cuba and Cancun.

[Normandy]

Yowza.  S FL got a problem on its hands I think 

[GaWx]

-0Z ICON and CMC are threats to FL

0Z UKMET:

  NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 16.7N  83.0W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 15.11.2024   84  16.6N  83.9W     1003            25
    0000UTC 16.11.2024   96  16.4N  84.0W     1001            26
    1200UTC 16.11.2024  108  15.7N  83.4W     1001            27
    0000UTC 17.11.2024  120  15.3N  82.9W     1001            29
    1200UTC 17.11.2024  132  15.4N  83.4W     1002            29
    0000UTC 18.11.2024  144  16.3N  84.6W     1002            31
    1200UTC 18.11.2024  156  17.8N  86.1W     1001            34
    0000UTC 19.11.2024  168  20.7N  86.8W      999            38

[TriPol]

Uh..

[A-L-E-K]

riding it^

 

[Windspeed]

The operationals were pretty eye-opening last night. Even the ECMWF bombed a 930 mb major. I guess we'll just have to see how fast this system consolidates over the next 48 hours. There is a 24 hour variance between TCG between the two major operationals. The lesser deterministic GEFS still prefers land interaction slowing down any rapid intensification. Obviously, we don't even have an invest labeled yet, but it just goes to show how favorable the environment will become for the potential TC if it does form and stays over water.

[TPAwx]

Nothing to see here.  Just a major landfalling on FL West Coast a week before Thanksgiving.

[olafminesaw]

Deja Vu intensifies 

[CCHurricane]

12z GFS not backing down. Landfall as CAT 3 just south of Fort Meyers, with it traversing the Florida peninsula in less than 6 hours. 

[SnowGoose69]

This still requires a ton of bad luck for this to LF in Florida.  The amount of looping around that goes on in most ensembles down there would require nothing short of a miracle for this not to landfall somewhere and then also split the Cuba/Yucatan gap as well as somehow be a major hurricane

[hawkeye_wx]

The track of this system is very unclear.  Where, exactly, it develops and stalls will determine the direction in which it tracks.  If this point is a hair farther east, the storm gets pulled east before turning back to the west and nw.  If this point is a hair farther west, it doesn't get pulled east, but instead heads west/nw into the Yucatan.  The latest op Euro has flipped from the former to the latter.  The new run develops the storm farther west and south, so it scrapes Honduras and moves westward into the Yucatan.

[cardinalland]

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The track of this system is very unclear.  Where, exactly, it develops and stalls will determine the direction in which it tracks.  If this point is a hair farther east, the storm gets pulled east before turning back to the west and nw.  If this point is a hair farther west, it doesn't get pulled east, but instead heads west/nw into the Yucatan.  The latest op Euro has flipped from the former to the latter.  The new run develops the storm farther west and south, so it scrapes Honduras and moves westward into the Yucatan.

yeah, these systems are interesting because they are sitting there in the gyre waiting for something to pull them out in some direction. Looks like most models have it going NW and then E right now, but I could also see a Central America landfall

[Normandy]

2 hours ago, CCHurricane said:

12z GFS not backing down. Landfall as CAT 3 just south of Fort Meyers, with it traversing the Florida peninsula in less than 6 hours. 

Would be an extreme wind event for S Florida due to fast motion

[CCHurricane]

All things equal, 12Z EURO also showing southern FL landfall, albeit in a much better location and with a weaker system.

Southern FL is mostly Wildlife Area vs. property development further North, yet this thing will be ripping from west to east in terms of forward momentum. 

 

[cptcatz]

10 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

All things equal, 12Z EURO also showing southern FL landfall, albeit in a much better location and with a weaker system.

Southern FL is mostly Wildlife Area vs. property development further North, yet this thing will be ripping from west to east in terms of forward momentum. 

 

If that were to verify it would still bring a 980 mb eye over downtown Miami. That would cause quite a mess. 

[jbenedet]

15 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

All things equal, 12Z EURO also showing southern FL landfall, albeit in a much better location and with a weaker system.

Southern FL is mostly Wildlife Area vs. property development further North, yet this thing will be ripping from west to east in terms of forward momentum. 

 

The landmass there is least wide, and also flat wetlands. SST's are also quite warm. This combination won't allow for much --if any--- weakening before affecting the densely populated areas of Miami dade county.

It's one run, but I'd caution against this as an optimistic scenario, especially if it comes in stronger at that angle.

[GaWx]

 The latest Euro Weeklies for 11/18-24 show this well:

 4 x climo (~4-5) closer to normal ACE of a month to 1.5 months earlier:

[beanskip]

Why are we dissecting 204 hour panels for a storm that hasn't formed yet and is forecast to behave like a drunken frat guy in the Caribbean for 3 days before eventually, possibly emerging into the Gulf? 

[cardinalland]

geefus unleashes a monster… high potential here

[cardinalland]

nice anticyclone and there’s some developing convection on satellite. i imagine after a TD forms in a day or 2, it’s off to the races unless it moves over land

[TPAwx]

1 hour ago, beanskip said:

Why are we dissecting 204 hour panels for a storm that hasn't formed yet and is forecast to behave like a drunken frat guy in the Caribbean for 3 days before eventually, possibly emerging into the Gulf? 

That’s fair, especially so if it was just one run in isolation.  GFS is getting persistent with signaling a strong TC into the Gulf and landfalling on FL West Coast next week.

18z has a 2 or 3 landfalling just north of Crystal River next Wednesday.

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

1 hour ago, beanskip said:

Why are we dissecting 204 hour panels for a storm that hasn't formed yet and is forecast to behave like a drunken frat guy in the Caribbean for 3 days before eventually, possibly emerging into the Gulf? 

Probably because it's the end of the season with nothing else going on, and we are a board full of weather enthusiasts. 

[Cholorob]

All things equal, 12Z EURO also showing southern FL landfall, albeit in a much better location and with a weaker system.
Southern FL is mostly Wildlife Area vs. property development further North, yet this thing will be ripping from west to east in terms of forward momentum. 
 

This is not a good take. The southern tip of Florida is very thin and means all of greater Miami and Key Largo/Isla Morada would be at threat. That is far more people to suffer damage than anything between Naples and Tampa.


.

[Floydbuster]

I am bullish on this one...

 

 

[Windspeed]