HighTechEE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12z GFS has 30" from Cincy all the way to Athens Ohio (basically SR32) over the next 16 days lol! Hope no freezing rain or sleet is in that total! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 I’m guessing, ILN will put those northern tear of watches over to advisories and leave the warning counties as warnings. Unless we see something dramatic with the euro which is very unlikely at this point. Probably something like 3 to 6 across Columbus 2 to 4 once you get into Delaware County. Admittedly, i feel like that’s conservative, but my guess on what they go with. I’ll throw out my guess later. But recently, how many times have we seen advisories get upgraded back to warnings once the storm evolves hopefully that’ll be what happens this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, buckeye said: I’m guessing, ILN will put those northern tear of watches over to advisories and leave the warning counties as warnings. Unless we see something dramatic with the euro which is very unlikely at this point. Probably something like 3 to 6 across Columbus 2 to 4 once you get into Delaware County. Admittedly, i feel like that’s conservative, but my guess on what they go with. I’ll throw out my guess later. But recently, how many times have we seen advisories get upgraded back to warnings once the storm evolves hopefully that’ll be what happens this time. Sounds reasonable. Euro & Canadian are red flags & just can’t be tossed. Fingers xssd we get lucky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: Sounds reasonable. Euro & Canadian are red flags & just can’t be tossed. Fingers xssd we get lucky! euro is remarkably unchanged. At this point it's time for the short term models. I'd really like to see the rgem juice up. The track isn't horrible but it's drying up the snow big time as the low transfers before it gets into WV. Really need that primary to hang on a little longer....same old same old issues lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 on a lighter note, both the euro and gfs have snow moving back in by 156hr. It's kind of an unusual set up with a low to our north and a positively tilted trough... ...what could possible go wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, buckeye said: I’m guessing, ILN will put those northern tear of watches over to advisories and leave the warning counties as warnings. Unless we see something dramatic with the euro which is very unlikely at this point. Probably something like 3 to 6 across Columbus 2 to 4 once you get into Delaware County. Admittedly, i feel like that’s conservative, but my guess on what they go with. I’ll throw out my guess later. But recently, how many times have we seen advisories get upgraded back to warnings once the storm evolves hopefully that’ll be what happens this time. Of course, you're correct - WWA just issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Crowbar said: Of course, you're correct - WWA just issued Ha! I nailed it actually I’ve been reading iln discussions for so many years It becomes easy to guess what they’re gonna do. Even nailed the 3 to 6 inches. Maybe I should quit my day job Now let’s see if I’m right and they end up switching Franklin county over to a winter storm warning once the snow starts. That’s another thing they seem to do quite a bit of, Most of our winter storm warnings aren’t a result of a watch going to a warning they are usually advisories going to warnings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, Crowbar said: Of course, you're correct - WWA just issued I forget, criteria for warning in DE County versus Franklin County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, pondo1000 said: I forget, criteria for warning in DE County versus Franklin County? I think they're the same - it's when you get down toward Pickaway/Fairfield etc where the WSW criteria is lower, but someone more knowledgeable than me can chime in. I'm in Delaware County as well on the west side of Alum Creek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, Crowbar said: I think they're the same - it's when you get down toward Pickaway/Fairfield etc where the WSW criteria is lower, but someone more knowledgeable than me can chime in. I'm in Delaware County as well on the west side of Alum Creek Cool. I keep thinking DE County & north was 6+ of snow for a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Curious if schools will open - wife teaches in Columbus and kids go to Olentangy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18 minutes ago, Crowbar said: Curious if schools will open - wife teaches in Columbus and kids go to Olentangy. With this coming in the middle of the night, you won't have school. Even if you ended up with half what is forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 27 minutes ago, Crowbar said: Curious if schools will open - wife teaches in Columbus and kids go to Olentangy. Live in Olentangy SD too. You fart a flurry & kids are off! Columbus will be open I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, pondo1000 said: Live in Olentangy SD too. You fart a flurry & kids are off! Columbus will be open I bet. No kidding - they also get a day every other week off anyway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 the nam is refusing to budge, in fact it appears it might have nudged north and keeps the low alive longer into s. WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 pick the one you like the most. Riding the Rap lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, buckeye said: the nam is refusing to budge, in fact it appears it might have nudged north and keeps the low alive longer into s. WV actually about the same after looking at snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 hrrr 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18z hrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The disparity at this late juncture before the storm in QPF between major computer models is quite striking. I mean at 24-36 hours out, my QPF total (north side of Cincinnati) is HRRR: 1.74" / NAM 3km: 1.55" / GFS: 1.40" / Euro: 0.96". That is a huge difference in snowfall / sleet amounts. Digging into some other models not always used daily (so again caution like with the GFS graphcast) but interestingly the WRF-ARW and WRF-NSSL actually back the Euro side of the QPF envelope rather than the NAM and HRRR. I maintain caution with the extremely amped up QPF numbers but willing to go a little over the Euro. Currently going 5-9" (plus additional sleet) north side of Cincinnati up to just south of I-70. 3-5" just north of I-70. Also 3-5" but with significant sleet (and light ice glaze) near and just south of Cincinnati metro. I could see the core jackpot snow area seeing potential for a few bands to hit 10-11" but not confident in widespread totals that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I don’t know boys & girls, think the dry air wins out on this & Euro ends up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Getting kinda worried about dry air intrusion, and that most intense band of precip moving south of the river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 hours ago, pondo1000 said: I don’t know boys & girls, think the dry air wins out on this & Euro ends up right. Definitely seems to be the case. Hoping to be pleasantly surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 12z hrrr do we believe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crowbar Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 52 minutes ago, buckeye said: 12z hrrr do we believe? Would love to, but think we're only going to get a few inches at best. Other models showing more south. Already told my wife and kids that they'll have school tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, buckeye said: 12z hrrr do we believe? It refuses to budge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 It’s a game of inches here, literally. I think it’s equal chances that we could get 2 inches or 8 inches. I’ll be watching radar and seeing how many hours of virga we’re gonna get. A common theme that the hrrr and nam have is what looks like the leading edge of snow moving in around 3pm that becomes a head fake and dries out before it gets here and then finally punches thru between 7 and 8. its hard to believe we have 9 more hours to go with this low thick cloud deck combined with the radar, but we’ll see. lets face it, this is how we do snow storms here….always on the edge, either north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbs Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 And so it begins, snow started right at noon IMBY here about 15 miles SE of Dayton. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iluvsnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Following up on EE's post...been snowing steadily for an hour....and gradually getting more intense. We already had an inch of snow on the ground from the clipper early this past week. Wasn't supposed to start here in earnest until after 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now