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Let’s talk winter!! Ohio and surrounding states!! 24'-25'


buckeye
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  • 2 weeks later...

Hope I'm not jinxing it but I figured i'd unlock the door here, turn the lights on, and open the ohio discussion on this one.    Possibly our first major snowstorm in.....??????  

This is all the 12z runs from today.   The consistency is crazy but I'm still trying to figure out how we get screwed out of this one, (If it's possible we'll find a way).

 

12z.jpg

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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Hope I'm not jinxing it but I figured i'd unlock the door here, turn the lights on, and open the ohio discussion on this one.    Possibly our first major snowstorm in.....??????  

This is all the 12z runs from today.   The consistency is crazy but I'm still trying to figure out how we get screwed out of this one, (If it's possible we'll find a way).

 

12z.jpg

You in central Ohio have a room for it to go north.  

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6 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Hope I'm not jinxing it but I figured i'd unlock the door here, turn the lights on, and open the ohio discussion on this one.    Possibly our first major snowstorm in.....??????  

This is all the 12z runs from today.   The consistency is crazy but I'm still trying to figure out how we get screwed out of this one, (If it's possible we'll find a way).

 

12z.jpg

Sure would be nice! When is the last time we had maps like that in these parts inside 72-84 hours?! 

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Still have nightmares about Jan 2019, when we were supposed to get around a foot on Saturday, and instead got a few inches (granted overnight was lots of blowing/drifting with bad roads) preceded by rain due to WAA. 

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

definitely been awhile.   Even better question might be when was the last time we had maps like this inside 72-84 hours that actually panned out?      

This might be that once in an eon when cats lay down with dogs, and the model gods say...."you I-70 plebs have suffered enough....here's a foot of heaven for you....now go away and don't come back for another decade or two."

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More concerned with a south trend …Euro looking scary, it is really heading that way and some of the other models are starting to trend that way too.    :yikes:
Really surprised because these kind of systems almost always trend stronger further north.   12z runs will be telling whether it’s a flip or a flop.  

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53 minutes ago, buckeye said:

More concerned with a south trend …Euro looking scary, it is really heading that way and some of the other models are starting to trend that way too.    :yikes:
Really surprised because these kind of systems almost always trend stronger further north.   12z runs will be telling whether it’s a flip or a flop.  

Yeah, not good. Hopefully we can still salvage something more than just a duster but the big dog potential seems to be fading. 

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58 minutes ago, buckeye said:

More concerned with a south trend …Euro looking scary, it is really heading that way and some of the other models are starting to trend that way too.    :yikes:
Really surprised because these kind of systems almost always trend stronger further north.   12z runs will be telling whether it’s a flip or a flop.  

Yep, I spoke too soon. Hopefully we correct back today. Euro hasn't been good past couple winters, so wouldn't be shocked to see it get this one right

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I'm thinking most likely scenario is minimal warning event for Franklin county south.... Probably advisory for Delaware and a couple of tiers north.    When ALL the models are showing you dead-center in the heaviest snow 4 days out...and we get shut out or DAB, you have to wonder what the hell are we even doing here.:drunk:

early call for mby, 3-5"

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Maybe we'll get lucky.  Recall Dec 2013, when we were supposed to get 10-12" on Thursday night-Friday and ended up with only about 3" as the storm moved about 60-70 miles to the south (areas like Chillicothe got a foot that we were supposed to get) - maybe this time the weather gods will push this thing north to give us something worthwhile

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13 minutes ago, Crowbar said:

Maybe we'll get lucky.  Recall Dec 2013, when we were supposed to get 10-12" on Thursday night-Friday and ended up with only about 3" as the storm moved about 60-70 miles to the south (areas like Chillicothe got a foot that we were supposed to get) - maybe this time the weather gods will push this thing north to give us something worthwhile

it seems like the only time there is a last minute significant shift north is when it screws us and we go from snow to slop...  But who knows.     My memory is probably failing me, but the last most infamous sudden shift north inside of 48hrs was the presidents day weekend storm in 2003.    I suppose the models have improved in the last 22 years though lol.

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NAM didn't suck but it did slightly go south.    Basically 2 parts to this storm.  First is the WAA followed by the passing of the ULL.  Best snow usually comes from the waa, at least around here, but sometimes those ULL can surprise too.   You want to be just to the north of that low when it passes, right now NAM has it scooting from about Lexington to Charleson WV, (something to watch for).    

Either way it's starting to look like the jackpot is pretty narrow, only a few counties wide so details are everything....gonna be some heartbreak with this one.  Wish it was more widespread share the wealth kind of storm.

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12 minutes ago, buckeye said:

NAM didn't suck but it did slightly go south.    Basically 2 parts to this storm.  First is the WAA followed by the passing of the ULL.  Best snow usually comes from the waa, at least around here, but sometimes those ULL can surprise too.   You want to be just to the north of that low when it passes, right now NAM has it scooting from about Lexington to Charleson WV, (something to watch for).    

Either way it's starting to look like the jackpot is pretty narrow, only a few counties wide so details are everything....gonna be some heartbreak with this one.  Wish it was more widespread share the wealth kind of storm.

Sucked for me. 1-2" 15 minutes south 12" lol

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22 minutes ago, buckeye said:

NAM didn't suck but it did slightly go south.    Basically 2 parts to this storm.  First is the WAA followed by the passing of the ULL.  Best snow usually comes from the waa, at least around here, but sometimes those ULL can surprise too.   You want to be just to the north of that low when it passes, right now NAM has it scooting from about Lexington to Charleson WV, (something to watch for).    

Either way it's starting to look like the jackpot is pretty narrow, only a few counties wide so details are everything....gonna be some heartbreak with this one.  Wish it was more widespread share the wealth kind of storm.

I'm no longer optimistic for Central Ohio. I'm gonna say we see further south shifts until 1-2" line splits CMH. Won't be shocked if come Sunday you'll need to live in the bottom 1/4 of the state to see more than a couple inches. Somehow, someway, us in central Ohio always get the screw job. Fully expect nothing less here. Go from a trend north last night, to "ope, fooled ya."

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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

that would be the heartbreak zone

If i see nothing to give any optimism in the 12z runs, I'm calling it now, no one in central Ohio will see more than 3". Once a trend starts it continues until it beats us into oblivion lol. I'm seriously about done with this hobby after all these years. 

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