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Major Hurricane Rafael


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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Not convinced EPS will be correct... think we in the states would like a recurve per the preponderance of track guidance... even if it shears... we can use the rain VA northward.

Also, intensity guidance seems to hang up above 35 kt. Uncertainty of course, but I am monitoring future course of the decaying Rafael for the Gulf coast. At least GEFS/GFS was correct Oct 20-24 for TC development,  advancing the idea of a storm down there, though 3 days too fast on the process and may have been wrong on a US mainland landfall though am not convinced we're done. 

Some rain anywhere in the eastern US would be nice. The US had its driest October since 1895 in some places. Hopefully this thing recurves north.

 

 

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On 11/6/2024 at 12:36 PM, hawkeye_wx said:

The 12z Euro no longer weakens Rafael in the gulf.  In fact, it actually strengthens as it moves through the gulf.  It remains pretty far south, away from the shear.  It turns west and then southwest into the Bay of Campeche, almost a reverse Milton track.

image.thumb.png.b5e7229a7de41328662e87879590a7e7.png

Keepin a weather eye on this thing. I know there is zero chance it hits TX, but you never know. The only reason I worry about hurricanes in Austin is everything there is a bad storm in central Texas, guess who gets to help clean up the debris? That, would be me.

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The op Euro and AI Euro have given up on the sw turn into the Bay of Campeche.  They agree with the GFS now.

Looks like the other way around (EC-AIFS has always been in the GFS camp, BTW), 18zGFS has mostly conceded into a turn towards the SW into the BoC. It basically decouples it first, before the LLC turns to the SW. Euro weakens it, but not fully decouples. Now, looking at the current trends, I don't buy the GFS decapitating Rafael in 36 hours or so, as a matter of fact, we are probably looking at a bounce back to major status for the next advisory. If it can walk the fine line around the shear boundary, south of 25N, then intensity could be much higher than forecasted.

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We need rain like I can’t describe in central NC. Just 0.25” the last 38 days. I know it’s worse up the coast 

Ummm how about 0.38" of rain since August 18th up here in Southern PA and oh yea today marks 40 days in a row without a trace here.  Also, we have had about 6 record highs too.  It's bad here!

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Crazy this thing is right off the west coast of Florida and here in Tampa if it wasn’t for this site I probably wouldn’t even know it was out there. I’m not exactly a news guy but there is zero buzz about this monster.


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10 hours ago, dbullsfan said:

Crazy this thing is right off the west coast of Florida and here in Tampa if it wasn’t for this site I probably wouldn’t even know it was out there. I’m not exactly a news guy but there is zero buzz about this monster.


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Yeah thank God it's not a month earlier with that thing moving NE.  Yikes

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3 hours ago, Jebman said:

If Rafael weakens enough we probably would not mind a few inches of rain in Texas.

Not happening it will never make it also I am not sure it is moving any further west as well as it is right now.  At one point about a week ago it was supposed to be up here in the Mid Atlantic tangled with a cold front that ship has sailed a long time ago as well. 

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