klw Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 Looks to be doing better as it gets further from Jamaica. http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 We are finally seeing strengthening. The convection has improved around the center, and now the recon plane just found 73 kt flight-level wind and 989 mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 The core is coming together nicely, now. Convection is beginning to pinwheel around the eye. The Grand Cayman radar shows the center well. https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/rafael24/Rafael_5Nov24_Cayman.gif 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 Looks like we might have a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 988.6 EXTRAP but we're going to need a NE eyewall pass before we have any in situ data to support a hurricane. Looking better and better on satellite and Cancun radar, but recon isn't quite there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 Latest pass says 986 mb with a 79 kt flight level wind. Rafael has been upgraded to a hurricane by the NHC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 On 11/4/2024 at 6:56 AM, StantonParkHoya said: What’s up with you, big dog Doing pretty good. You? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 Rafael's eye is becoming more symmetrical and appears closed now on Cancun radar. A more significant period of intensification may be occurring now that will last through landfall over Western Cuba. Would still like to see more symmetry with the CBs around the eyewall and a warming spike within the eye. But there is still plenty of time for Raffael to reach Category 2 intensity. Major hurricane intensity is definitely still possible prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 29 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Rafael's eye is becoming more symmetrical and appears closed now on Cancun radar. A more significant period of intensification may be occurring now that will last through landfall over Western Cuba. Would still like to see more symmetry with the CBs around the eyewall and a warming spike within the eye. But there is still plenty of time for Raffael to reach Category 2 intensity. Major hurricane intensity is definitely still possible prior to landfall. You mean Grand Cayman radar Cancun is about 400 miles wnw from this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 You mean Grand Cayman radar Cancun is about 400 miles wnw from this point.Yes, I intended Grand Cayman. Brain was thinking Cayman and fingers typed Cancun. Been doing this a long time...lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 Has there ever been a hurricane that strengthened to Cat 2 in the Gulf of Mexico and then weakened to a tropical depression or dissipated upon reaching the gulf coast? That seems to be what NHC is forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 The new recon plane found a 978 mb pressure, an 8 mb drop since the last recon plane left several hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 TCs west of 90W are a rare sight in November. If it keeps hurricane status, it would be a first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 974 mb, 88 kt flight level wind 4 mb drop in about 90 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 2 hours ago, gallopinggertie said: Has there ever been a hurricane that strengthened to Cat 2 in the Gulf of Mexico and then weakened to a tropical depression or dissipated upon reaching the gulf coast? That seems to be what NHC is forecasting. Ida of 2009 may qualify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 Storm is rapidly strengthening. Said that a few times on here this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 965 mb now..... the flight wind is about 92 kt, so nothing outrageous, yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 Oh boy. Small eye popping. This things going off right into landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 Radar shows clear ERC going on now. It appears that it might be a matter of a few hours before the inner eyewall collapses.https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/rafael24/Rafael_5Nov24_Cayman.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 Recon just got 956 mb. Waiting for that new east side winds. Thinking cat 3 after it makes the pass. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 It looks like we are in the final legs of the ERC, with the old eyewall coalescing into the new one. Recon still shows a bit of a double wind maxima, but will probably disappear soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 The 12z Euro no longer weakens Rafael in the gulf. In fact, it actually strengthens as it moves through the gulf. It remains pretty far south, away from the shear. It turns west and then southwest into the Bay of Campeche, almost a reverse Milton track. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 6 Share Posted November 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 Rafael is already taking on a somewhat lopsided structure on radar. I'm not sure that it isn't already experiencing some mid-level shear or if this is just a temporary appearance left over from land interaction with Cuba. However, it is interesting that the ECMWF wants to turn and drive Rafael due west and then WSW into the SW GOM. A bit of uncertainty on how this plays out. But I am confident if the GFS camp wins out, Rafael will still get sheared off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 Bifurcation is the word of the day... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 Holy guacamole, I didn't expect that NE eyewall to be so intense post-exit Cuba. Good grief. SFMR is too contaminated, but clearly, based on flight-level, Rafael is still a major hurricane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 There is evidence of northwesterly shear on water vapor imagery this evening. I see the 18Z ECMWF and GFS both show an increase for an ~18 hour period before it abates late tomorrow. Seems like all that dry air over the Gulf would interrupt the convection further, but there may be room for another round of deepening on the more southerly track the Euro is showing if the circulation isn't fully disrupted. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 There was a 100 kt gust reported west of Havana. I reckon that was a legit OBS. It is very possible that Rafael was a much stronger hurricane at landfall after the last recon data. There was an EWRC in progress that completed or merged prior to landfall. Either way, still surprised at the current intensity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 Not convinced EPS will be correct... think we in the states would like a recurve per the preponderance of track guidance... even if it shears... we can use the rain VA northward. Also, intensity guidance seems to hang up above 35 kt. Uncertainty of course, but I am monitoring future course of the decaying Rafael for the Gulf coast. At least GEFS/GFS was correct Oct 20-24 for TC development, advancing the idea of a storm down there, though 3 days too fast on the process and may have been wrong on a US mainland landfall though am not convinced we're done. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 Shear is weakening, and Rafael is showing a more symmetrical/round shape on satellite, also an eye is clearing out. Latest recon confirms FL winds around 106kts, we'll see about central pressure, but I'm guessing a down trend will shortly begin, especially after dry air gets mixed out through the strong convection going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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