TheDreamTraveler Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Not convinced EPS will be correct... think we in the states would like a recurve per the preponderance of track guidance... even if it shears... we can use the rain VA northward. Also, intensity guidance seems to hang up above 35 kt. Uncertainty of course, but I am monitoring future course of the decaying Rafael for the Gulf coast. At least GEFS/GFS was correct Oct 20-24 for TC development, advancing the idea of a storm down there, though 3 days too fast on the process and may have been wrong on a US mainland landfall though am not convinced we're done. Some rain anywhere in the eastern US would be nice. The US had its driest October since 1895 in some places. Hopefully this thing recurves north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 On 11/6/2024 at 12:36 PM, hawkeye_wx said: The 12z Euro no longer weakens Rafael in the gulf. In fact, it actually strengthens as it moves through the gulf. It remains pretty far south, away from the shear. It turns west and then southwest into the Bay of Campeche, almost a reverse Milton track. Keepin a weather eye on this thing. I know there is zero chance it hits TX, but you never know. The only reason I worry about hurricanes in Austin is everything there is a bad storm in central Texas, guess who gets to help clean up the debris? That, would be me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 The op Euro and AI Euro have given up on the sw turn into the Bay of Campeche. They agree with the GFS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said: The op Euro and AI Euro have given up on the sw turn into the Bay of Campeche. They agree with the GFS now. Looks like the other way around (EC-AIFS has always been in the GFS camp, BTW), 18zGFS has mostly conceded into a turn towards the SW into the BoC. It basically decouples it first, before the LLC turns to the SW. Euro weakens it, but not fully decouples. Now, looking at the current trends, I don't buy the GFS decapitating Rafael in 36 hours or so, as a matter of fact, we are probably looking at a bounce back to major status for the next advisory. If it can walk the fine line around the shear boundary, south of 25N, then intensity could be much higher than forecasted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 We need rain like I can’t describe in central NC. Just 0.25” the last 38 days. I know it’s worse up the coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted November 7 Share Posted November 7 Sounds like Rafael bit Havana pretty bad. Cuba did not need a major hurricane strike with the way that country is in full scale collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 Rafael was not supposed to be this strong in the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Impressive performance by Rafael this evening. Major at 10pm EST I bet. This must be the most menacing looking storm in terms of location to not even have a single TS watch or warning issued. No intermediate advisories either! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Man, how often do you see such a well developed eye at this stage of the season? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 Imagine this but heading east into the keys… Unreal for mid November. Definitely a major Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 50 minutes ago, Amped said: Rafael was not supposed to be this strong in the gulf. Climate change has never been so bad. The entire Gulf Coast needs to get scopelocked on Rafael. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 Recon says no major... Yet, but close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: We need rain like I can’t describe in central NC. Just 0.25” the last 38 days. I know it’s worse up the coast Ummm how about 0.38" of rain since August 18th up here in Southern PA and oh yea today marks 40 days in a row without a trace here. Also, we have had about 6 record highs too. It's bad here! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 Any idea what the sea surface temperatures are under Rafael? it's just about in the Loop Current. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 I am really impressed by the visual appearance of Rafael. Did not anticipate this. Also, VHTs going up and wrapping the eye. Rafael may put in a show tonight prior to any increasing shear evolving tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 Any idea what the sea surface temperatures are under Rafael? it's just about in the Loop Current.Immediate surface is running a tick above 28°C. Enough to support a major hurricane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 Crazy this thing is right off the west coast of Florida and here in Tampa if it wasn’t for this site I probably wouldn’t even know it was out there. I’m not exactly a news guy but there is zero buzz about this monster. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 10 hours ago, dbullsfan said: Crazy this thing is right off the west coast of Florida and here in Tampa if it wasn’t for this site I probably wouldn’t even know it was out there. I’m not exactly a news guy but there is zero buzz about this monster. . Yeah thank God it's not a month earlier with that thing moving NE. Yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 54 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said: Yeah thank God it's not a month earlier with that thing moving NE. Yikes Umm, we did, its name was Milton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted November 8 Share Posted November 8 looks like this storm is gonna push us over the 160.1 ACE hyperactive threshold this is why not to call bust on a hurricane season too early 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 Rafael is rapidly unraveling. The only November major hurricane in the Gulf (besides Kate). One for the record books 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 If Rafael weakens enough we probably would not mind a few inches of rain in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 9 Share Posted November 9 3 hours ago, Jebman said: If Rafael weakens enough we probably would not mind a few inches of rain in Texas. Not happening it will never make it also I am not sure it is moving any further west as well as it is right now. At one point about a week ago it was supposed to be up here in the Mid Atlantic tangled with a cold front that ship has sailed a long time ago as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted November 11 Share Posted November 11 I have never seen a storm unravel that fast. Being that strong in the gulf and never making landfall is amazing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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