Major Hurricane Rafael

[WxWatcher007]

Time for another thread. Late season activity in the Caribbean and possibly into the Gulf as this potential we’ve tracked since late October looks to finally come to fruition. This time of year however, the Gulf looks more hostile. Discuss.

 

[weatherCCB]

Flight on the way..  should know more in a few hours 

[purduewx80]

Will be curious to see how quickly it tightens up today. Looks increasingly organized on satellite, but ASCAT is still an elongated mess. The low north of DR is what is forecast to evolve into an inverted trough that effectively focuses a PRE in the Southeast mid-week. There may be a sharp cut-off between minimal rain and significant flooding in parts of GA and SC. Rain in Florida would certainly be unwelcome with lingering flooding there from Milton, as well.

[purduewx80]

The 12Z hurricane regional models probably aren't to be trusted without a well-defined center yet, but they do show how the vortex missing Jamaica could result in a stronger system over Cuba and/or the Gulf. Would be wild to get another RI major this year.

[RU848789]

We now have potential tropical cyclone #18 in the Caribbean, which will likely become TS Rafael soon and the NHC forecast track takes it into the Gulf of Mexico strengthening into a weak hurricane near Cuba, but then weakening as it heads further north due to anticipated shear, but as per the NHC discussion, the error bars are pretty high on this one.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 13.0N  77.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  04/0600Z 14.3N  77.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  04/1800Z 16.0N  77.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 17.7N  78.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 19.6N  80.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 21.5N  82.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 23.3N  84.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 25.4N  86.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 26.9N  88.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 

[StantonParkHoya]

Would be nice if it would at least bring an influx of moisture here in NC 

[lilj4425]

23 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Would be nice if it would at least bring an influx of moisture here in NC 

I honestly don’t think it’s rained a single drop at my house since Helene. 

[Jebman]

12 hours ago, RU848789 said:

We now have potential tropical cyclone #18 in the Caribbean, which will likely become TS Rafael soon and the NHC forecast track takes it into the Gulf of Mexico strengthening into a weak hurricane near Cuba, but then weakening as it heads further north due to anticipated shear, but as per the NHC discussion, the error bars are pretty high on this one.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 13.0N  77.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  04/0600Z 14.3N  77.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  04/1800Z 16.0N  77.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 17.7N  78.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 19.6N  80.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 21.5N  82.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 23.3N  84.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 25.4N  86.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  08/1800Z 26.9N  88.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 

Uh oh. It's tracking right toward Texas.

I am fervently sorry about all the times I bragged about 'no way hurricanes hit mby'. I know damn well we could get literally demolished by a really bad hurricane. Look what happened in Asheville NC, 33 inch rains and 130 mph wind gusts. THAT FAR FROM THE OCEAN!

It has been really good knowing you all.

Just in case, you never know. I'm not safe either. No place to hide this season.

[StantonParkHoya]

3 hours ago, Jebman said:

Uh oh. It's tracking right toward Texas.

I am fervently sorry about all the times I bragged about 'no way hurricanes hit mby'. I know damn well we could get literally demolished by a really bad hurricane. Look what happened in Asheville NC, 33 inch rains and 130 mph wind gusts. THAT FAR FROM THE OCEAN!

It has been really good knowing you all.

Just in case, you never know. I'm not safe either. No place to hide this season.

What’s up with you, big dog

[GaWx]

As of 10AM EST, this was upgraded to TD#18:

1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

...SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 76.9W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, and a Tropical Storm Watch
for Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila,
Camaguey, and Las Tunas.


Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, satellite images, and
surface observations indicate that the low pressure system over the
south-central Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined center and
is producing organized deep convection. Therefore, the system now
meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The maximum
flight-level winds from the aircraft support holding the initial
wind speed steady at 30 kt. Deep convection is gradually organizing
near the center and in bands around it, especially on the south and
east sides of the circulation.

The depression has jogged a bit to the right of the previous track,
and the initial motion estimate is now 010/8 kt. A turn to the
northwest is expected later today, and that motion is forecast to
continue during the next few days as a ridge builds over the
southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean. This motion should
take the center of the system near Jamaica tonight, near or over the
Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and across western Cuba on
Wednesday. After that time, when the system reaches the Gulf of
Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to
differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the
storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous
one and remains close to the various consensus models. However, it
should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is
of low confidence.

The environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm
SSTs support intensification, and since the system now has a well
organized circulation, there is increasing confidence of steady
strengthening until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico. In 3 or 4 days, when the system reaches the central Gulf,
a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air,
and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and
induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope, fairly close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus
aids.

[GaWx]

10AM EST FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 15.2N  76.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 16.5N  77.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 18.2N  79.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 19.9N  80.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  06/1200Z 21.7N  82.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  07/0000Z 23.4N  83.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  07/1200Z 24.6N  85.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  08/1200Z 26.1N  87.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  09/1200Z 27.4N  89.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly

[Boston Bulldog]

8 hours ago, Jebman said:

Uh oh. It's tracking right toward Texas.

I am fervently sorry about all the times I bragged about 'no way hurricanes hit mby'. I know damn well we could get literally demolished by a really bad hurricane. Look what happened in Asheville NC, 33 inch rains and 130 mph wind gusts. THAT FAR FROM THE OCEAN!

It has been really good knowing you all.

Just in case, you never know. I'm not safe either. No place to hide this season.

Extremely unlikely makes landfall in Texas. The only scenario where this storm gets close to Texas is if the storm gets ripped to shreds by shear and the LLC decouples. Cold water on approach to land is also in place. Breathe in, breathe out

Hurricane Ida (2009) repeat without the secondary peak intensity IMO

[Windspeed]

Extremely unlikely makes landfall in Texas. The only scenario where this storm gets close to Texas is if the storm gets ripped to shreds by shear and the LLC decouples. Cold water on approach to land is also in place. Breathe in, breathe out
Hurricane Ida (2009) repeat without the secondary peak intensity IMO

Good chance the TC does decouple prior to landfall along the NGOM coast with strong upper level westerlies in place. The remnant low could drift WNW but likely gets absorbed into mid-latitudinal flow. Portions of the Tennessee Valley need the rain, so this will hopefully pan out as a beneficial system. The real TC threats are prior to the GOM with potential strong hurricane impacts to Western CUBA and Isla de la Juventud.

[NavarreDon]

Very likely we have a TS very soon if not already.




.

[purduewx80]

RI probs are exceedingly high from the 18Z SHIPS. 

[olafminesaw]

27 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Very likely we have a TS very soon if not already.




.

Tropical storm  coming at the next advisory per Tropical tidbits.

[olafminesaw]

Gotta love the classic decoupling in the Gulf on the HWRF. Absolutely shredded.

[Windspeed]

Gotta love the classic decoupling in the Gulf on the HWRF. Absolutely shredded.

Yeah, I am confident Rafael is little more than a rain event for the NGOM coast. Granted, this is 4-5 days down the road, but the TC shouldn't maintain hurricane intensity. The GFS shows why. A wall of strong westerlies and large variance in the vector of motion between 850 and 200 hPa may decouple any mid-level vorticity, which is obviously why that is being resolved on the TC modeling.

[Floydbuster]

 

[TPAwx]

Just one run but some eastward clustering.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Interesting the NHC noted a developing eyewall from recon with a minimal TS with a questionable appearance. Not seeing the convective blowup you usually see when NHC notes a formative eyewall. Wonder if that was a transient feature 

[TPAwx]

A few EPS members shift east but remainder are into central Gulf.

[ineedsnow]

3 hours ago, TPAwx said:

Just one run but some eastward clustering.

 

check out the 18z EPS night and day compared to the GEFS

[Windspeed]

[NorthHillsWx]

Cayman Islands radar should be interesting to watch through the day

https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar

[olafminesaw]

Big structural improvements overnight, should be ready to take off. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The pressure is holding steady around 994 mb for now.  It is still working on getting deeper convection around the center, which has been lacking.

[NorthHillsWx]

Yes, structurally this storm is very well developed but given lack of a coherent CDO and some popcorn storms in the western and northern circulation me thinks it is battling some mid level dry air 

[yoda]

Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182024
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

Satellite imagery shows that the convection has increased near the 
center of Rafael during the past several hours.  However, reports 
from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that 
this has not yet translated into strengthening, possibly due to 
what looks like a tongue of dry air seen entraining into the 
center in microwave imagery.  The aircraft reported maximum winds 
of 54 kt at 850 mb with a minimum central pressure near 994 mb.  
Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. 
One note is the radius of maximum winds has decreased to about 20 
n mi, suggesting that Rafael is trying to develop a better-defined 
inner core despite the apparent dry air.

The initial motion is still northwestward at 320/11 kt.  Rafael is 
currently on the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level ridge over 
the western Atlantic, and this feature should steer the cyclone 
generally northwestward for the next couple of days, with the center 
passing near the Cayman Islands and over western Cuba.  After that 
time, there is a significant spread in the track guidance. While all 
of the guidance suggests that Rafael should shear apart over the 
central and northern Gulf, the GFS takes longer to show this 
happening than the ECMWF/UKMET. In addition, the GFS shows a weaker 
ridge north of the system, while the ECMWF/UKMET show a stronger 
ridge.  The result is that the GFS shows a northward motion with 
landfall on the northern Gulf coast, while the ECMWF/UKMET show a 
westerly motion across the central Gulf of Mexico.  Until there is a 
clearer signal on which of these scenarios is more likely, the 
forecast compromises between these extremes with a slow motion over 
the northern Gulf of Mexico. 

Conditions are favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during 
the next 24-36 h if Rafael can develop a stronger inner wind core.  
Based on the expectation that the core will form, the system is 
forecast to reach hurricane strength in about 12 h and continue to 
strengthen until it reaches Cuba.  Once the center is north of 25N 
in the Gulf of Mexico, it is likely to encounter increasing 
vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and cooler sea surface 
temperatures, which should lead to Rafael weakening and eventually 
shearing apart vertically. The new intensity forecast remains on 
the high side of the intensity guidance and is similar to the 
previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it passes
near or over the Cayman Islands by tonight where damaging
hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive
waves are expected. Rafael should reach western Cuba and the Isle of
Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this
region, where a life-threatening storm surge and destructive waves 
are also expected.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through this 
afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower 
and Middle Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night.

3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could
bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast.  Residents in this
area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.

4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the 
Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of 
Jamaica and the Cayman, along with southern and western portions of 
Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher 
terrain in Jamaica and Cuba. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 17.8N  78.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 19.4N  79.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 21.3N  81.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 23.2N  83.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 24.4N  84.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 25.1N  85.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 25.6N  87.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 26.8N  89.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 28.0N  90.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[hawkeye_wx]

Despite the obvious improvement in the satellite presentation, Rafael is still not strengthening at all.  Recon just found 994 mb, so no change.  It needs bigger, more robust, convection, not little puffs that quickly die out.