WxWatcher007 Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 Time for another thread. Late season activity in the Caribbean and possibly into the Gulf as this potential we’ve tracked since late October looks to finally come to fruition. This time of year however, the Gulf looks more hostile. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 Flight on the way.. should know more in a few hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 Will be curious to see how quickly it tightens up today. Looks increasingly organized on satellite, but ASCAT is still an elongated mess. The low north of DR is what is forecast to evolve into an inverted trough that effectively focuses a PRE in the Southeast mid-week. There may be a sharp cut-off between minimal rain and significant flooding in parts of GA and SC. Rain in Florida would certainly be unwelcome with lingering flooding there from Milton, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 The 12Z hurricane regional models probably aren't to be trusted without a well-defined center yet, but they do show how the vortex missing Jamaica could result in a stronger system over Cuba and/or the Gulf. Would be wild to get another RI major this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 3 Share Posted November 3 We now have potential tropical cyclone #18 in the Caribbean, which will likely become TS Rafael soon and the NHC forecast track takes it into the Gulf of Mexico strengthening into a weak hurricane near Cuba, but then weakening as it heads further north due to anticipated shear, but as per the NHC discussion, the error bars are pretty high on this one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.0N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/0600Z 14.3N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 04/1800Z 16.0N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 17.7N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 19.6N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 21.5N 82.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 23.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 25.4N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 26.9N 88.6W 50 KT 60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Would be nice if it would at least bring an influx of moisture here in NC 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 23 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said: Would be nice if it would at least bring an influx of moisture here in NC I honestly don’t think it’s rained a single drop at my house since Helene. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 12 hours ago, RU848789 said: We now have potential tropical cyclone #18 in the Caribbean, which will likely become TS Rafael soon and the NHC forecast track takes it into the Gulf of Mexico strengthening into a weak hurricane near Cuba, but then weakening as it heads further north due to anticipated shear, but as per the NHC discussion, the error bars are pretty high on this one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 13.0N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/0600Z 14.3N 77.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 04/1800Z 16.0N 77.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 17.7N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 19.6N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 21.5N 82.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 23.3N 84.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 25.4N 86.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 26.9N 88.6W 50 KT 60 MPH Uh oh. It's tracking right toward Texas. I am fervently sorry about all the times I bragged about 'no way hurricanes hit mby'. I know damn well we could get literally demolished by a really bad hurricane. Look what happened in Asheville NC, 33 inch rains and 130 mph wind gusts. THAT FAR FROM THE OCEAN! It has been really good knowing you all. Just in case, you never know. I'm not safe either. No place to hide this season. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 3 hours ago, Jebman said: Uh oh. It's tracking right toward Texas. I am fervently sorry about all the times I bragged about 'no way hurricanes hit mby'. I know damn well we could get literally demolished by a really bad hurricane. Look what happened in Asheville NC, 33 inch rains and 130 mph wind gusts. THAT FAR FROM THE OCEAN! It has been really good knowing you all. Just in case, you never know. I'm not safe either. No place to hide this season. What’s up with you, big dog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 As of 10AM EST, this was upgraded to TD#18: 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 ...SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 76.9W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, and a Tropical Storm Watch for Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas. Tropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, satellite images, and surface observations indicate that the low pressure system over the south-central Caribbean Sea has developed a well-defined center and is producing organized deep convection. Therefore, the system now meets the criteria of a tropical depression. The maximum flight-level winds from the aircraft support holding the initial wind speed steady at 30 kt. Deep convection is gradually organizing near the center and in bands around it, especially on the south and east sides of the circulation. The depression has jogged a bit to the right of the previous track, and the initial motion estimate is now 010/8 kt. A turn to the northwest is expected later today, and that motion is forecast to continue during the next few days as a ridge builds over the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean. This motion should take the center of the system near Jamaica tonight, near or over the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday, and across western Cuba on Wednesday. After that time, when the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the storm. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and remains close to the various consensus models. However, it should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is of low confidence. The environmental factors of low wind shear, high moisture, and warm SSTs support intensification, and since the system now has a well organized circulation, there is increasing confidence of steady strengthening until the system reaches Cuba or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. In 3 or 4 days, when the system reaches the central Gulf, a sharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear, drier air, and slightly cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, fairly close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 10AM EST FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 15.2N 76.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 16.5N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 18.2N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 19.9N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 21.7N 82.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 23.4N 83.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 24.6N 85.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 26.1N 87.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 27.4N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston Bulldog Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 8 hours ago, Jebman said: Uh oh. It's tracking right toward Texas. I am fervently sorry about all the times I bragged about 'no way hurricanes hit mby'. I know damn well we could get literally demolished by a really bad hurricane. Look what happened in Asheville NC, 33 inch rains and 130 mph wind gusts. THAT FAR FROM THE OCEAN! It has been really good knowing you all. Just in case, you never know. I'm not safe either. No place to hide this season. Extremely unlikely makes landfall in Texas. The only scenario where this storm gets close to Texas is if the storm gets ripped to shreds by shear and the LLC decouples. Cold water on approach to land is also in place. Breathe in, breathe out Hurricane Ida (2009) repeat without the secondary peak intensity IMO 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Extremely unlikely makes landfall in Texas. The only scenario where this storm gets close to Texas is if the storm gets ripped to shreds by shear and the LLC decouples. Cold water on approach to land is also in place. Breathe in, breathe out Hurricane Ida (2009) repeat without the secondary peak intensity IMOGood chance the TC does decouple prior to landfall along the NGOM coast with strong upper level westerlies in place. The remnant low could drift WNW but likely gets absorbed into mid-latitudinal flow. Portions of the Tennessee Valley need the rain, so this will hopefully pan out as a beneficial system. The real TC threats are prior to the GOM with potential strong hurricane impacts to Western CUBA and Isla de la Juventud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Very likely we have a TS very soon if not already.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 RI probs are exceedingly high from the 18Z SHIPS. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 27 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: Very likely we have a TS very soon if not already. . Tropical storm coming at the next advisory per Tropical tidbits. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Gotta love the classic decoupling in the Gulf on the HWRF. Absolutely shredded. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Gotta love the classic decoupling in the Gulf on the HWRF. Absolutely shredded.Yeah, I am confident Rafael is little more than a rain event for the NGOM coast. Granted, this is 4-5 days down the road, but the TC shouldn't maintain hurricane intensity. The GFS shows why. A wall of strong westerlies and large variance in the vector of motion between 850 and 200 hPa may decouple any mid-level vorticity, which is obviously why that is being resolved on the TC modeling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Just one run but some eastward clustering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 Interesting the NHC noted a developing eyewall from recon with a minimal TS with a questionable appearance. Not seeing the convective blowup you usually see when NHC notes a formative eyewall. Wonder if that was a transient feature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 4 Share Posted November 4 A few EPS members shift east but remainder are into central Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 3 hours ago, TPAwx said: Just one run but some eastward clustering. check out the 18z EPS night and day compared to the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 Cayman Islands radar should be interesting to watch through the day https://www.weather.gov.ky/radar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 Big structural improvements overnight, should be ready to take off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 The pressure is holding steady around 994 mb for now. It is still working on getting deeper convection around the center, which has been lacking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 Yes, structurally this storm is very well developed but given lack of a coherent CDO and some popcorn storms in the western and northern circulation me thinks it is battling some mid level dry air 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 Tropical Storm Rafael Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 1000 AM EST Tue Nov 05 2024 Satellite imagery shows that the convection has increased near the center of Rafael during the past several hours. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that this has not yet translated into strengthening, possibly due to what looks like a tongue of dry air seen entraining into the center in microwave imagery. The aircraft reported maximum winds of 54 kt at 850 mb with a minimum central pressure near 994 mb. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity remains 50 kt. One note is the radius of maximum winds has decreased to about 20 n mi, suggesting that Rafael is trying to develop a better-defined inner core despite the apparent dry air. The initial motion is still northwestward at 320/11 kt. Rafael is currently on the southwestern side of a low- to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic, and this feature should steer the cyclone generally northwestward for the next couple of days, with the center passing near the Cayman Islands and over western Cuba. After that time, there is a significant spread in the track guidance. While all of the guidance suggests that Rafael should shear apart over the central and northern Gulf, the GFS takes longer to show this happening than the ECMWF/UKMET. In addition, the GFS shows a weaker ridge north of the system, while the ECMWF/UKMET show a stronger ridge. The result is that the GFS shows a northward motion with landfall on the northern Gulf coast, while the ECMWF/UKMET show a westerly motion across the central Gulf of Mexico. Until there is a clearer signal on which of these scenarios is more likely, the forecast compromises between these extremes with a slow motion over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions are favorable for steady to rapid strengthening during the next 24-36 h if Rafael can develop a stronger inner wind core. Based on the expectation that the core will form, the system is forecast to reach hurricane strength in about 12 h and continue to strengthen until it reaches Cuba. Once the center is north of 25N in the Gulf of Mexico, it is likely to encounter increasing vertical wind shear, dry air entrainment, and cooler sea surface temperatures, which should lead to Rafael weakening and eventually shearing apart vertically. The new intensity forecast remains on the high side of the intensity guidance and is similar to the previous forecast. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it passes near or over the Cayman Islands by tonight where damaging hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge, and destructive waves are expected. Rafael should reach western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge and destructive waves are also expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night. 3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of Jamaica and the Cayman, along with southern and western portions of Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are possible along the higher terrain in Jamaica and Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 17.8N 78.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 19.4N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 21.3N 81.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 23.2N 83.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 24.4N 84.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 25.1N 85.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 25.6N 87.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 26.8N 89.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 28.0N 90.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 5 Share Posted November 5 Despite the obvious improvement in the satellite presentation, Rafael is still not strengthening at all. Recon just found 994 mb, so no change. It needs bigger, more robust, convection, not little puffs that quickly die out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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