11th Annual Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest

[RodneyS]

7 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

6th place but theres no way I can win, so I’m ready to move to last after our big dog next week.

You aren't out yet, @nw baltimore wx.  Your only negative departure is DCA,  but the entrants ahead of you aren't doing well there either, and so if you nailed the other three airports you would win. 

[nw baltimore wx]

47 minutes ago, RodneyS said:

You aren't out yet, @nw baltimore wx.  Your only negative departure is DCA,  but the entrants ahead of you aren't doing well there either, and so if you nailed the other three airports you would win. 

Thanks, but I’d still rather get the big dog and finish last!  

[snowfan]

I’d like to thank all of my fans. Without your support, me being in the top 15 wouldn’t be possible. 

[RodneyS]

22 minutes ago, snowfan said:

I’d like to thank all of my fans. Without your support, me being in the top 15 wouldn’t be possible. 

Don't shortchange yourself, @snowfan -- you are currently 12th.   Unfortunately, because you have all negative departures, your chance of winning are the same as mine and 38 others -- zero. 

[Roger Smith]

I don't see a path to a win needing 5" at BWI, 3.5" at IAD, and no snow at DCA (or RIC), that would be a tough ask. This is what I get for relying on DCA slant stick. Also, Arlwx12 will stay in front as far as any BWI snow is concerned with a 4.3" deficit, (I can tie at 5.0 or above, if IAD stays in my favor (arlwx12 is at 4.5" so as soon as IAD goes past 3.5" that possible tie is broken).

It looks like high stakes and deck pic are in a very good position too, with 3" and 2.1" left to use at RIC, so they can easily pass me and arlwx12 as each 0.1" to 3.0" at RIC is a -0.2" differential for us before deficits are spent. 

There are others needing less snow at all locations, in 1-3" range, who will stay ahead of all of the above if that's all that we get now to ?? Apr. And a bigger fall than 5" will open it up for lots of larger forecasts. 

I figure on one 3-5" event and we're done. It will likely go very warm by mid to late march. even so, 1993? Feb 1993 was frigid in Great Lakes region as I recall living in Ontario. 

[RodneyS]

5 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

I don't see a path to a win needing 5" at BWI, 3.5" at IAD, and no snow at DCA (or RIC), that would be a tough ask. This is what I get for relying on DCA slant stick. Also, Arlwx12 will stay in front as far as any BWI snow is concerned with a 4.3" deficit, (I can tie at 5.0 or above, if IAD stays in my favor (arlwx12 is at 4.5" so as soon as IAD goes past 3.5" that possible tie is broken).

It looks like high stakes and deck pic are in a very good position too, with 3" and 2.1" left to use at RIC, so they can easily pass me and arlwx12 as each 0.1" to 3.0" at RIC is a -0.2" differential for us before deficits are spent. 

There are others needing less snow at all locations, in 1-3" range, who will stay ahead of all of the above if that's all that we get now to ?? Apr. And a bigger fall than 5" will open it up for lots of larger forecasts. 

I figure on one 3-5" event and we're done. It will likely go very warm by mid to late march. even so, 1993? Feb 1993 was frigid in Great Lakes region as I recall living in Ontario. 

The DCA measuring gurus have helped you and a number of other folks by revising downward yesterday's snow total there from 0.5 to 0.3 inches.  It would be interesting to know how these revisions come about -- perhaps some of the gurus don't realize that you are not supposed to take snow away from the measuring location to make a snowman?   In any event, here is the slightly revised leaderboard, subject to further revisions without warning.

P.S. I have listed in red all of the unfortunates who have been eliminated . . .  whoops, that includes me. 

[Harv_poor]

What to me is amazing is that besides the last three entrants on the table, there are only six entrants left who still have positive departures at all four sites. The closest WXDUDE64 has an overall positive departure of 24.4

[Its a Breeze]

2 hours ago, Harv_poor said:

What to me is amazing is that besides the last three entrants on the table, there are only six entrants left who still have positive departures at all four sites. The closest WXDUDE64 has an overall positive departure of 24.4

Go big or go home!

I'm going to need DCA to slow down a bit and the others to catch up please. Can't believe I may have been to low on DCA

[gymengineer]

6 hours ago, RodneyS said:

The DCA measuring gurus have helped you and a number of other folks by revising downward yesterday's snow total there from 0.5 to 0.3 inches.  It would be interesting to know how these revisions come about -- perhaps some of the gurus don't realize that you are not supposed to take snow away from the measuring location to make a snowman?   In any event, here is the slightly revised leaderboard, subject to further revisions without warning.

P.S. I have listed in red all of the unfortunates who have been eliminated . . .  whoops, that includes me. 

 

Where are you seeing this? The Daily Almanac (and monthly daily data) for 2/12 is still showing 0.5". 

[RodneyS]

3 hours ago, gymengineer said:

Where are you seeing this? The Daily Almanac (and monthly daily data) for 2/12 is still showing 0.5". 

Thanks.  What I was going by was Wednesday's daily report for DCA issued at 12:35 AM this morning, which may be found at "Observed Weather" "Daily Climate Report" for "Washington-National" at https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx.  The newest version is currently for Thursday, but you can find the 12:35 AM version for Wednesday by clicking "2" at the top (in blue). It's head-scratching how these contradictions occur, but you are correct that the snow total for yesterday is now back up to 0.5 inches.  The below table reflects that change for DCA: 

[RodneyS]

We have a new leader, as RIC has already recorded 2.0 inches today.  That puts @mattie gin first place, with @HighStakesa big threat to move into a tie before day's end and @southmdwatcherlurking if RIC records several more inches.

[RIC Airport]

10 hours ago, RodneyS said:

We have a new leader, as RIC has already recorded 2.0 inches today.  That puts @mattie gin first place, with @HighStakesa big threat to move into a tie before day's end and @southmdwatcherlurking if RIC records several more inches.

Storm total was 4.0" at RIC, so up to 11.7" for the season.

[RodneyS]

3 hours ago, RIC Airport said:

Storm total was 4.0" at RIC, so up to 11.7" for the season.

Thanks - - see updated table below, which also includes another 0.1 at DCA:

 

[RodneyS]

FYI, each of the four airports recorded only a trace of snow today.  However, I am updating the table to show that -- barring corrections to the snow totals -- two more contestants have been eliminated from contention, to bring that total to 50 (in red), leaving only 19 who still have a chance to win.

Most stunningly, I have determined that co-leader @mattie g has bitten the dust.  Why is that? Because while he could still finish in a first-place tie with @HighStakes, he would lose the tiebreaker based on his forecast of 8.6 inches of snow at Salisbury (SBY) vs High Stake's forecast of 10.8 inches there.  Because SBY has already recorded 17.8 inches this season, mattie g is history -- just as the other 49 of us are.

[mattie g]

I’m filing a protest!

 

 

 

 

[nw baltimore wx]

I want our Salisbury pick to count.