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11th Annual Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Contest

RodneyS

By RodneyS,
in Mid Atlantic

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

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My useless, wild guesses pulled from the nether regions!  Hopefully vastly underestimated!

BWI:  3.0"

DCA:  -2.5"

IAD:  2.2"

RIC:  1.5"

Tiebreaker...SBY:  4.4"

---------------------------------

And yeah, I put a NEGATIVE value for DCA, just for fun!  I was reminded of that old SNL skit years ago, called "Chicago Superfans" that had all these guys in a bar (including George Wendt, who was Norm on "Cheers"!) drinking beer and eating fatty chicken wings, saying "Da BEARS!!!" every 5 seconds.  It was funny!  At the end they would predict the score of the upcoming Bears' game (always a Bears' win, of course!).  One time, one of them said something like, "Bears 92, Lions -20!!" (or some negative score).  One of them asked, "How can they get a negative score, that's not possible!"  To which the other replied, "Hey, Ditka will find a way!!"  So...my feeling is, "Hey, DCA will find a way!!" :lol:

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RodneyS
RodneyS

It's time for the 11th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest!    First, thanks to @Roger Smith for pointing out that last year's contest, which was billed as the 9th one, was actually the 10

RodneyS
RodneyS

See below summary table.  We have 69 entrants this year, which is about halfway between two years ago (64 entrants) and last year (75 entrants). 52 of our 69 entrants this year played last year, and 1

Deck Pic
Deck Pic

BWI: 17.1" DCA: 12.2" IAD: 20.3" RIC: 9.8" Tiebreaker (LYH): 18.3"

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RodneyS

RodneyS

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3 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

My useless, wild guesses pulled from the nether regions!  Hopefully vastly underestimated!

BWI:  3.0"

DCA:  -2.5"

IAD:  2.2"

RIC:  1.5"

Tiebreaker...SBY:  4.4"

---------------------------------

And yeah, I put a NEGATIVE value for DCA, just for fun!  I was reminded of that old SNL skit years ago, called "Chicago Superfans" that had all these guys in a bar (including George Wendt, who was Norm on "Cheers"!) drinking beer and eating fatty chicken wings, saying "Da BEARS!!!" every 5 seconds.  It was funny!  At the end they would predict the score of the upcoming Bears' game (always a Bears' win, of course!).  One time, one of them said something like, "Bears 92, Lions -20!!" (or some negative score).  One of them asked, "How can they get a negative score, that's not possible!"  To which the other replied, "Hey, Ditka will find a way!!"  So...my feeling is, "Hey, DCA will find a way!!" :lol:

@Scarlet Pimpernel Does that mean that your actual DCA guess is zero?

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

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1 hour ago, RodneyS said:

@Scarlet Pimpernel Does that mean that your actual DCA guess is zero?

Well, no, I actually don't think it's an absolute shutout at DCA or anywhere.  My "negative" snow amount guess was just for humor.

In all seriousness, I can see this winter being like last year in the end.  Nothing great, not even really close, but definitely not as awful as 2022-23 (when I literally got 0.5" on the season, that melted by 10AM the morning it fell!).  So...something like a couple of weeks that actually feel wintry, with maybe a couple of minor to moderate events.  Just a wild-ass thought and guess.

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RodneyS

RodneyS

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9 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Well, no, I actually don't think it's an absolute shutout at DCA or anywhere.  My "negative" snow amount guess was just for humor.

In all seriousness, I can see this winter being like last year in the end.  Nothing great, not even really close, but definitely not as awful as 2022-23 (when I literally got 0.5" on the season, that melted by 10AM the morning it fell!).  So...something like a couple of weeks that actually feel wintry, with maybe a couple of minor to moderate events.  Just a wild-ass thought and guess.

Okay, so I'll list your current guess for DCA as 2.5 inches.

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PrinceFrederickWx

PrinceFrederickWx

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On 11/1/2024 at 7:23 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

BWI: 5.7"

DCA: 1.9"

IAD: 3.8"

RIC: 1.7"

Tiebreaker SBY: 9"

Formula:

  • 2000-2001 analog
  • +BWI sensor is now in Siberia
  • -it never snows outside of Jan.
  • +Beach Blizzard III
  • -DCA's gonna DCA
  • ~Mar. 2001 and Dec. 2000 redux (sorry!)

 

@RodneyS

Updating numbers:

BWI: 9.9”

DCA: 4.7”

IAD: 9.7”

RIC: 2.7”

Tiebreaker SBY: 9”

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RodneyS

RodneyS

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FYI, Reagan National Airport received a trace of snow today.  I mention this because on only two previous occasions since this contest began did DCA receive a trace or more in November.

The first time was the first year of the contest, when DCA received a trace on both November 13th and 26th, 2014.  During the 2014-15 snow season, DCA received 18.3 inches of snow. 

The second time was six years ago, when DCA received 1.4 inches on November 15th, 2018.  During the 2018-19 snow season, DCA received 16.9 inches of snow.

Both of those years were Weak El Ninos, and so you can draw your own conclusions as to whether November snow has any predictive value this season.

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mattie g

mattie g

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1 hour ago, RodneyS said:

FYI, Reagan National Airport received a trace of snow today.  I mention this because on only two previous occasions since this contest began did DCA receive a trace or more in November.

The first time was the first year of the contest, when DCA received a trace on both November 13th and 26th, 2014.  During the 2014-15 snow season, DCA received 18.3 inches of snow. 

The second time was six years ago, when DCA received 1.4 inches on November 15th, 2018.  During the 2018-19 snow season, DCA received 16.9 inches of snow.

Both of those years were Weak El Ninos, and so you can draw your own conclusions as to whether November snow has any predictive value this season.

I think I can…and I think that DC is going to get blasted this season (but that feeling wont be reflected in my entry).

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